Scotland’s Population Projected to Continue to Rise

Statistics published today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) show the population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.52 million in 2022, and to continue to rise to 5.78 million by 2037 – an increase of 9 per cent over the 25 year period.

Commenting on the publication of the ‘National Population Projections for Scotland’, Registrar General and NRS Chief Executive Tim Ellis said:

“The latest population projections indicate that Scotland’s population will be reaching record levels for years to come”

“Scotland’s population is projected to continue to rise into the future because Scotland’s birth rate and inward migration levels have remained high by historic standards and because people at older ages are expected to live longer”

The report provides projections for the period 2012-2037. They show what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based largely on past trends and although they will reflect past policy and economic impacts, they do not take account of future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives.

Main findings

2012 to 2022

• The population of Scotland is projected to increase from an estimated 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.52 million over the ten year period to 2022.
• Over the next decade, 28 per cent of the projected increase in Scotland’s population can be attributed to natural increase (more births than deaths) while 72 per cent of the increase is due to assuming continuing inward net migration to Scotland.
• Between 2012 and 2022 the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by 4 per cent from 0.91 to 0.95 million.
• The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 28 per cent in the first ten years of the projection period, from 0.42 million in 2012 to 0.53 million in 2022.

2012 to 2037

• The average (median) age of the population is projected to increase from 41.5 years in 2012 to 42.3 years mid-2022 and 44.3 by mid-2037.
• The Scottish population is projected to increase by 9 per cent to 5.7 million over the 25 year period to mid-2037, which is equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 0.3 per cent.
• The number of people of working age [Footnote1] is projected to increase from 3.35 million in 2012 to 3.51 million in 2022 (an increase of 5 per cent). The projected working age population then decreases to 3.48 million by 2037 (an overall increase of 4 per cent from the 2012 estimate).
• The number of people of pensionable age [Footnote 1] is projected to decrease from 1.05 million in 2012 to 1.02 million in 2020 (a decrease of 3 per cent). It is then projected to rise, reaching 1.34 million in 2034. It then remains relatively constant and is projected to be 1.33 million by 2037 (an increase of 27 per cent from the 2012 estimate).

The populations of the other countries in the UK are also projected to increase with England’s population projected to increase by 16 per cent, Northern Ireland’s population by 10 per cent and Wales’s population by 8 per cent between 2012 and 2037.

The full publication ‘Projected Population of Scotland (2012-based)’ is available on the NRS website.

Footnote

1. Working age and pensionable age populations based on State Pension Age (SPA) for a given year. Between 2012 and 2018, SPA will change from 65 years for men and 61 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes. Then between 2019 and 2020, SPA will change from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women. Between 2034 and 2046, SPA will increase in two stages from 66 years to 68 years for both sexes. This is based on SPA under the 2011 Pensions Act.