Population Projections for Scottish Areas

Scotland’s population is projected to continue to rise by about 9 per cent over the next 25 years, but not at an even rate across the country.

Statistics published today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) show the population of 20 of the 32 Council areas in Scotland are projected to increase, while the population in the other 12 are projected to decrease. The Council areas with the greatest projected increase in population are Aberdeen City and City of Edinburgh (both +28 per cent) followed by Perth & Kinross (+24 per cent). Inverclyde (-19 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-13 per cent) have the largest projected decreases.

The report provides projections for the 25 year period 2012-2037. They show what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based largely on past trends and although they will reflect past policy and economic impacts, they do not take account of future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives at a local or national level.

Main findings

Principal projection

• The population of Scotland is projected to rise by 9 per cent over the next 25 years, from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.78 million by 2037, and continue to rise into the future. But this pattern is not to be experienced in all areas of Scotland. Some areas are projected to increase in size while others to decrease.
• The population of 20 of the 32 Council areas in Scotland are projected to increase while the population in the other 12 are projected to decrease. The Council areas with the greatest projected increase in population are Aberdeen City and City of Edinburgh (both +28 per cent) followed by Perth & Kinross (+24 per cent). Inverclyde (-19 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-13 per cent) have the largest projected decreases.
• Scotland’s population is projected to age and this is true for all administrative areas to a greater or lesser extent.
• The number of children aged 0-15 is projected to increase in 12 of Scotland’s 32 Council areas, with the biggest increases projected for Aberdeen City (+45 per cent) and East Lothian (+28 per cent). The biggest decreases are projected for Inverclyde (-32 per cent) and Eilean Siar (-28 per cent).
• The population of working age [Footnote 1] is projected to increase in 13 Council areas and decrease in 19, increasing the most in City of Edinburgh (+28 per cent) and decreasing the most in Inverclyde (-29 per cent).
• The population of pensionable age [Footnote 1] is projected to increase in all Council areas, with the largest increases being projected in West Lothian (+47 per cent) and Shetland Islands (+44 per cent), and the smallest increase is projected in Dundee City (+6 per cent).

Variant projections

• It is hard to estimate how many people might migrate to Scotland in the future therefore 7 alternative variant projections have been produced along with the principal projection.
• The high migration variant projection shows what would happen if Scotland were to gain larger numbers than expected through migration. The populations in 25 Council areas would rise under this variant. The greatest increase is projected for City of Edinburgh (+38 per cent), closely followed by Aberdeen City (+36 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+30 per cent). The largest decrease is again projected for Inverclyde (-18 per cent), followed by Argyll & Bute (-9 per cent).
• The low migration variant projection shows the population if Scotland were to gain smaller numbers through migration than expected. The population of 16 Council areas are projected to rise under this variant. Again the greatest increase is projected for Aberdeen City, City of Edinburgh and East Lothian (all +20 per cent), and the largest decreases in Inverclyde (-22 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-19 per cent).
• The zero migration variant projects the population as if migration was not to have any effect at all. Under this variant the population of 11 Council areas is projected to rise, and the largest increases are projected for West Lothian (+6 per cent), Shetland Islands (+3 per cent), Clackmannanshire (+3 per cent) and Midlothian (+3 per cent). The largest decreases are projected for Eilean Siar (-9 per cent), Argyll & Bute and South Ayrshire (both -8 per cent).
• Fertility variants use higher or lower fertility rates than what is assumed for Scotland. Under the high fertility variant, the population of 25 Council areas are projected to increase, with the largest increases projected for Aberdeen City and City of Edinburgh (both +32 per cent), and the largest decrease projected is for Inverclyde (-17 per cent). Under the low fertility variant, the population of 16 Council areas are projected to increase. City of Edinburgh is projected to have the largest increase (+26 per cent), and Inverclyde is projected to experience the biggest population decline (-21 per cent).
• Life expectancy variants suggest what might happen to the population if mortality rates improved more or less than assumed. Under the high life expectancy variant, the population of 22 Council areas are projected to increase, with the largest increases projected for Aberdeen City (+30 per cent) and largest decrease projected for Inverclyde (-18 per cent). The low life expectancy variant projects the population of 17 Council areas to increase, and the same areas are projected to experience the biggest increases and decreases as under the high life expectancy variant: City of Edinburgh and Aberdeen City (both +27 per cent) are projected to show the largest increase, while Inverclyde (-21 per cent) is projected to show the largest decrease.

The full publication Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2012-based) is available on the NRS website.

Footnote
1) Working age and pensionable age populations based on State Pension Age (SPA) for a given year. Between 2012 and 2018, SPA will change from 65 years for men and 61 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes. Then between 2019 and 2020, SPA will change from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women. Between 2034 and 2046, SPA will increase in two stages from 66 years to 68 years for both sexes. This is based on SPA under the 2011 Pensions Act.