Scotland's population is at a record high, but population growth has slowed
The estimated population of Scotland as at mid-2018 was 5,438,100. This was the ninth consecutive year where the population reached a new high.
Number of people (millions)
Population growth has slowed in the past two years from 0.59% in the year to mid-2016 to 0.25% in the year to mid-2018. While growth has slowed in recent years, it remains higher than any year between mid-1972 and mid-2003.
Migration has driven Scotland's recent population growth
Migration continues to add to Scotland's population with 20,900 more people coming to Scotland than leaving in the latest year to mid-2018. Although net migration has decreased over the past two years, it remains positive.
In contrast, natural change (births minus deaths) has not contributed to Scotland's recent population growth, as there were 7,700 more deaths than births in the latest year. This is the largest natural decrease on record.
Scotland's population is ageing
In mid-2018, just under one in five people (19%) in Scotland were aged 65 and over, compared with 16% in mid-2008. The population aged 16 to 64 has decreased from 66% to 64% over the last 10 years. The higher number of females at older ages reflects their longer life expectancy.
*Only people aged 89 and under are shown for illustration purposes.
Some areas of Scotland experienced depopulation in the last year
Over the latest year to mid-2018, Scotland's population increased by just over 0.2%. However, the level of population change varies across Scotland; 10 councils had population growth above the Scottish average, 8 councils increased in population but at a slower rate than the Scottish average, and 14 councils decreased in population.
Most of Scotland's population growth has come from migration
Scotland had the lowest population growth from natural change (0.2%) of all the UK countries over the 10 year period between 2008 and 2018, and was the most reliant on net migration (and other changes) for population growth.
Scotland's population growth from net migration and other changes (4.4%) was similar to England's (4.3%), but England's total population growth was much larger than Scotland's due to its higher natural change (more births than deaths).
The number of births continued to fall in 2018
There were 51,308 live births registered in 2018, the lowest annual total since 2002 and the second lowest annual total since records began in 1855.
Number of births
The average age of mothers was 30.6 in 2018, compared to 26.0 in 1975. Similarly, the average age of fathers has increased to 33.1 in 2018, compared to 28.4 in 1975.
Scotland's total fertility rate is the lowest in the UK
In 2018, the total fertility rate for Scotland was 1.42. For a population to replace itself, the total fertility rate needs to be around 2.1. The last time Scotland met the replacement total fertility rate was in 1973, with a total fertility rate of 2.13.
At the beginning of the 1970s, Scotland's total fertility rate (TFR) was slightly higher than that for England and Wales, but since the early 1980s Scotland's TFR has dropped steadily and is now the lowest of the UK countries.
Four out of five births in Scotland are to UK-born mothers
In 2018, 83% of births were to mothers who were born in the UK, including 74% who were born in Scotland.
Mothers born elsewhere in the European Union (EU) represented 8% of births, including 6% who were born in countries which joined the EU in 2004 or later.
The number of deaths has increased and the death rate has been largely stable since 2012
The number of deaths increased by 1.1% to 58,503 in 2018 and is now only 1% lower than it was in 1994.
The age-standardised mortality rate offers a more accurate picture of the trend as it takes account of changes in the population structure and shows what the trend would be if the population structure had remained the same over time. It has decreased by 27% since 1994 but it has been largely stable since 2012 and there was virtually no change in the rate over the last year (-0.3%).
* European Age-standardised rate (EASR) per 100,000 population using the 2013 European Standard Population. For comparison, the two lines start at the same point.
Leading causes of death in Scotland in 2018
The leading cause of death in 2018 was ischaemic heart disease, which accounted for 11.3% of all deaths. This was closely followed by dementia and Alzheimer’s disease which accounted for 11.1% of deaths.
The leading cause differed by sex with females being most likely to die from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (14.4% of female deaths) and males most likely to die from ischaemic heart disease (13.9% of male deaths).
Ischaemic heart disease remains the leading cause of death despite a large decrease
Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of death in 2000 and 2018 but numbers have almost halved.
Dementia and Alzheimer’s deaths were three times greater in 2018 than in 2000, making them the second most common cause of death in 2018.
Cerebrovascular disease deaths have also fallen. Lung cancer has overtaken this and is now the third most common cause. Influenza and pneumonia was fifth in 2000 but dropped to sixth by 2018.
Scotland has the highest age-standardised mortality rate of all UK countries
The Scottish age-standardised mortality rate has consistently been the highest of all UK countries over time.
The current rate of 1,140 deaths per 100,000 population is 27% lower than in 1994 but there has been no improvement in recent years.
Infant deaths and stillbirths have reduced significantly since the 1970s
There were 190 stillbirths in 2018, a rate of 3.7 for every thousand live and still births. This was the lowest stillbirth rate ever recorded.
There were 163 infant deaths (during the first year of life) in 2018, a rate of 3.2 for every thousand live births. This equalled the previous lowest infant death rate ever which was recorded in 2015.
Life expectancy has increased but improvements have stalled in recent years
Since 1980-1982, life expectancy in Scotland has increased by 7.9 years for males and 5.8 years for females. Between 2012-2014 and 2015-2017, life expectancy has stopped improving. It has fallen slightly for both males and females in the most recent estimate in 2015-2017.
The gap between males and females has also changed over time, from 6.2 years in 1980-1982 to 4.1 years in 2015-2017. This is a result of life expectancy increasing faster for males than for females.
Life expectancy at birth
Deprivation has a strong effect on life expectancy
People who live in more deprived areas of Scotland can expect to lead shorter lives than those in less deprived areas.
Females born in 2015-2017 in the 10% most deprived areas of Scotland can expect to live 9.6 years fewer than those who live in the 10% least deprived areas. For males, the difference in life expectancy between the 10% most deprived and 10% least deprived areas is 13.0 years.
Scotland has the lowest life expectancy of all UK countries
Since 1980-1982, life expectancy in Scotland has been lower than the UK average and also lower than any other UK country. The gap between Scottish life expectancy and the UK average was 1.8 years for females and 2.2 years for males in 2015-2017. The recent slowing in improvement to life expectancy can be seen across all UK countries.
Life expectancy at birth
People in less deprived areas can expect to live longer and healthier lives
Deprivation has an even greater effect on healthy life expectancy than on life expectancy.
Females living in the 10% least deprived areas can expect to spend 23.0 more years in good health than those in the 10% most deprived areas. For males, the difference in healthy life expectancy between the 10% least deprived areas and the 10% most deprived areas is 22.5 years.
People in Scotland spend a greater proportion of their lives in good health compared to the rest of the UK
Females born in Scotland in 2015-2017 could expect to spend 62.6 years of their lives in good health followed by 18.4 years in poor health. Males could expect to spend 62.3 years in good health and then 14.7 years in poor health. This means females spend 77.3% of their life in good health and males spend 80.9% of their life in good health, a greater proportion than in any other UK country.
Nowadays more people come to Scotland than leave although the difference has narrowed in recent years
Over the latest year to mid-2018, 20,900 more people came to Scotland than left. This is a reduction from +23,900 people in the year to mid-2017 and +31,700 people in the year to mid-2016, and coincides with the period after the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Prior to the 1990s, Scotland was mainly a country of negative net migration, with more people leaving than arriving. However, during the 2000s net migration became consistently positive, peaking in the year to mid-2007 when net migration was +33,000 people.
Number of people (thousands)
The recent decrease in net migration was driven by fewer people moving to Scotland from overseas and more people leaving to go overseas
The number of people moving to Scotland from overseas (inflows) decreased between mid-2016 and mid-2017 and remained stable over the most recent year to mid-2018.
The number of people moving away from Scotland to overseas (outflows) increased each year between mid-2016 and mid-2018.
The number of people moving from the rest of the UK has been broadly stable recently, and continues to be the highest inflow to Scotland.
More than half of all people moving to Scotland were aged 16 to 34 years
Over the latest year to mid-2018, the most common age group for people moving to Scotland from the rest of the UK or from overseas was 16 to 24 years. The most common age group for moves from Scotland to the rest of the UK or overseas was 25 to 34 years.
In 2018, there were 352,000 non-British nationals living in Scotland
Overall, 7% of the resident population of Scotland have non-British nationality. Of all non-British nationals living in Scotland, 221,000 (63%) were EU nationals and 131,000 (37%) were non-EU nationals. Over half of EU nationals living in Scotland were from EU8 countries.
EU14: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.
EU2: Bulgaria and Romania.
EU Other: Croatia, Cyprus and Malta.
Polish is the most common non-British nationality in Scotland
In 2018, there were 87,000 Polish nationals living in Scotland, representing a quarter of the non-British population and 1.6% of the resident population of Scotland.
The most common non-EU nationality was Pakistan with 15,000 people living in Scotland in 2018.
The number of marriages in Scotland continued to fall in 2018
The number of marriages in Scotland fell to 27,525 in 2018, continuing the long-term downward trend.
Number of marriages
The average age at first marriage has increased by more than 10 years since the mid-1970s, from 24.3 to 34.3 for males and from 22.4 to 32.6 for females.
Civil partnerships have decreased since same-sex marriage was introduced
Before 2005 same-sex couples could not form legally recognised unions. In the first full year after civil partnerships were introduced, over 1,000 couples registered civil partnerships. This number then stabilised at around 500 a year until Scotland legalised same-sex marriage in December 2014.
In 2015, over 1,600 same-sex couples married or changed their civil partnership to marriage. Since then, the number of same-sex marriages stabilised at just under 1,000 a year and the number of civil partnerships reduced to around 60 to 70 a year.
Humanist ceremonies accounted for almost a quarter of all marriages in 2018
Of all marriages conducted in Scotland in 2018, almost half were civil ceremonies compared to 35% in 1975.
The number of marriages conducted by the Church of Scotland and the Roman Catholic Church have declined over time. These now represent 10% and 4% of all marriages in 2018 respectively.
Since 2005 the number of humanist marriages has increased considerably with a range of organisations conducting humanist ceremonies. These now account for 23% of all marriages in 2018.
Adoptions decreased to 471 in 2018
Adoptions of children have been registered by law in Scotland since 1930. Following a steady rise to a post-war peak in 1946, the total number of adoptions fell before peaking again in 1969. Increased access to birth control and changing public attitudes towards single or unmarried parents led to a decrease in the number of children available for adoption.
There were 471 adoptions recorded in 2018. This was 13% fewer than in 2017, around half the number recorded per year in the mid-1980s, and less than a quarter of the number recorded in the late 1960s.
Number of adoptions
The number of households in Scotland is projected to increase
In mid-2018, there were 2.48 million households in Scotland, which is an increase of around 139,000 over the past 10 years.
The number of households is projected to increase to 2.76 million by 2041, an average annual increase of approximately 12,200 households.
People are increasingly living alone or in smaller households in Scotland
One person households are the most common type of household in Scotland. In 2017, around 885,000 people lived alone. They represented over one third of households. This is partly because Scotland's population is ageing, as older people are more likely to live alone or in smaller households.
Number of households (thousands) by household size
Note: Two or more person households could contain adults, or both adults and children.
96% of homes in Scotland were occupied in 2018
Overall in Scotland in 2018, 3% of homes were empty and 1% were second homes, though there were wide differences across the country. Remote rural areas had the highest percentage of homes that were empty or second homes.
