Unlike some countries, the United Kingdom (UK) does not have a comprehensive system of recording migrants, particularly those leaving the country, nor any legal requirement to notify change of address. So migration is the most difficult component of population change to measure and predict. Migration and the reasons for migrating are also much more susceptible to short-term changes in social and economic circumstances than births and deaths. We have improved how we estimate the share of international migration to areas within Scotland for the mid-2011 and mid-2012 population estimates. More detailed information on the methodology for estimating migration is available in the migration section of the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
Trends in migration since 1951
Historically, Scotland has been a country of net out-migration, with more people leaving to live elsewhere than moving to live in Scotland. However, since the 1960s, net out-migration has greatly reduced and, in some years during the late 1980s and early 1990s, Scotland experienced net migration gains. As Figure 5.1 shows, Scotland has now entered a period of net in-migration. Between 2003-04 and 2010-11 there were net gains of at least 19,000 per year and in 2010-11 the net migration gain was 27,000, the highest since these estimates started in 1951. However in 2011-12 net migration fell to 12,700.
Figure 5.1: Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2012
Net migration is the difference between much larger flows of migrants into and out of Scotland. The level of net migration can be significantly affected by relatively small changes in these gross flows from year to year, particularly if one flow rises while the other falls. In the last few years, migration to Scotland has typically been about 90,000 per year whilst migration from Scotland has been around 70,000. In 2011-12 migration to Scotland fell by 9,000 to about 81,000 while migration from Scotland decreased slightly by 2,000 to 68,000.
In the year to 30 June 2012, around 45,100 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and around 42,100 people left Scotland for the rest of the UK. The net gain of around 3,000 is similar to the net gain of 2,900 in 2010-11 but is slightly lower than the net gains of 4,200 in 2009 and 3,500 in 2010.
During the same period, about 35,900 people came to Scotland from overseas and around 26,200 left Scotland to go overseas, giving a net migration gain from overseas of around 9,700. This is lower than the net migration gain from overseas in previous years, this is because fewer people came to Scotland from overseas than in previous years and because more people left Scotland than in previous years. Estimating international migration is particularly difficult as the estimate is based primarily on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This is a sample survey conducted at main airports and ports across the UK, and the sample size for Scotland is very small (around 260 migrant contacts in 2011-12). Internationally, migrants are defined as people who change their country of usual residence for 12 months or more. So short-term seasonal migrant workers, including many people from the Eastern European states which joined the European Union (EU) in 2004, and hence will not be included in these migration estimates.
Origins and destinations of migrants
Figure 5.2 illustrates the trend in flows of people to and from the rest of the UK since 1981. There has been a slight increase in people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK to 45,100 following small drops in the previous three years, the recent peak of 61,900 was recorded in 2003-04. There was also a small increase in outward migration to 42,100 in 2011-12 from the previous year's figure of 40,800.
Figure 5.2: Movements to/from the rest of the UK, 1981-2012
Figure 5.3 shows the trends in flows of people to and from overseas since 1991.
In-migration from overseas has been increasing since 2003 but has dropped in the last two years with a larger decrease recorded in 2011-12. Out-migration to overseas has risen in 2011-12 following drops estimated in three consecutive years from 2008-09. The figures shown here are from the Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) series produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Figure 5.3: Movements to/from overseas, 1991-2012
Table 5.1 summarises the migration flows between Scotland and the rest of UK and Scotland and overseas between mid-2011 and mid-2012. The in-flows and out-flows of migrants from the rest of UK are similar. However, the out-flows to overseas are lower than the in-flows from overseas. As a result, the largest component of the total net migration is from overseas migration.
Table 5.1: Migration between Scotland and Rest of UK/Overseas: 2011-2012
| In | Out | Net | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of UK | 45,100 | 42,100 | 3,000 |
| Overseas | 35,900 | 26,200 | 9,700 |
| Total | 81,000 | 68,300 | 12,700 |
Age and sex of migrants
Figure 5.4 illustrates the ages of people moving between Scotland and the rest of the UK between mid-2011 and mid-2012. The peak age for migration into Scotland is 19, at which age there is a marked migration gain. The peak ages for migrating out of Scotland are 23 and 24 and this results in a migration loss at these ages. These large in and out flows result from an influx of students from outside Scotland starting higher education, followed by a move out of Scotland after graduation.
Figure 5.4: Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK, by age, mid-2011 to mid-2012
Figure 5.5 shows the age distribution of people moving between Scotland and overseas between mid-2011 and mid-2012. In contrast to moves to Scotland from the rest of the UK, the peak ages for migration into Scotland are 22 and 23. There are also high numbers of migrants from age 19 to 31. This results in a net migration gain through to age 40 followed by a net loss at older ages.
Figure 5.5: Movements between Scotland and overseas, by age, mid-2011 to mid-2012
Migrants to and from the UK and overseas alike tend to be much younger than the general population: 49% of in-migrants from the rest of the UK and 71% of those from overseas are aged 16-34, compared with 25% of the resident population. There also tend to be smaller peaks for moves of the very young, under the age of five, as their parents move home before their children have started school. Later in life, there is no significant 'retirement migration' in either direction. The pattern of migration is very similar for men and women.
Migration and the distribution of people in Scotland
In many parts of Scotland, migration is the most important component of population change. Net migration rates (here, the amount of net migration between mid- 2011 and mid-2012 as a proportion of the mid-2011 population) are a useful indicator when comparing migration between areas of different sizes. Information on net rates for council areas, which includes migration between council areas, the rest of the UK and overseas, is shown in Figure 5.6.
The patterns of migration over the period since mid-2011 indicate that the highest net out-migration rates were in East Ayrshire, Scottish Borders, Eilean Siar and Highland. The highest net in-migration rates were in Stirling, Aberdeen City, the City of Edinburgh and East Lothian.
Figure 5.6: Net migration as percentage of population by Council area, mid-2011 to mid-2012
Migration between Scotland and the rest of UK and overseas shows a slightly different pattern. Migration in the period mid-2011 to mid-2012 to and from areas outside Scotland, as a proportion of the resident population mid-2012, is shown in Figure 5.7. The highest net in-migration rates were in the city council areas of Aberdeen City, the City of Edinburgh and Stirling. The highest net out-migration rates were in East Renfrewshire, North Ayrshire and Inverclyde.
Figure 5.7: Net migration with areas outside Scotland as percentage of population by Council area, mid-2011 to mid-2012
Impact of migration on Scotland's population
The 2011 Census provides us with a wealth of information about the characteristics of Scotland's population. Scotland's population on Census Day 2011 was estimated to be 5,295,403 an increase of 233,400 (5%) since 2001. Some findings which shed light on the impact of migration on Scotland's population have been presented here. More detailed information on other characteristics can be found on the Scotland's Census website.
Country of birth
Ninety-three per cent of the people in Scotland stated they were born within the UK, a decrease of three percentage points since 2001. Eighty-three per cent of the population were born in Scotland, 9% in England, 0.7% in Northern Ireland and 0.3% in Wales. Of the 7% (369,000) of people in Scotland who were not born in the UK, 15% (55,000) were born in Poland, and 6% (23,000) were born in each of India and the Republic of Ireland. Every council area of Scotland saw an increase between 2001 and 2011 in the proportion of their population who were born outside the UK as shown in Figure 5.8.
Figure 5.8: People born outside the UK by council area, 2001 and 2011
Age and year of arrival in the UK
Over two-thirds (69%) of people living in Scotland who were born abroad were of working age (16 to 64 years old) when they arrived in the UK. Over half (55%) of people living in Scotland who were born abroad arrived in the UK between 2004 and March 2011.
Ethnic group
Four per cent of people in Scotland were from minority ethnic groups[5] - an increase of two percentage points since 2001. The Asian population was the largest minority ethnic group (3% of the total population or 141,000 people) and has seen an increase of one percentage point (69,000) since 2001. Just over 1% (1.2% or 61,000) of the population recorded their ethnic group as White: Polish. This proportion was highest in the City of Edinburgh and Aberdeen City at 3% of their total populations.
A 'White: Gypsy / Traveller' response category was added in 2011. There were 4,200 people who recorded their ethnic group in this category (0.1% of all people in Scotland). The highest number was in Perth & Kinross (400 people; 0.3% of the total population of that area). In Glasgow City, 12% of the population were from a minority ethnic group, in City of Edinburgh and Aberdeen City it was 8% and in Dundee City it was 6%. These areas also saw the largest increases since 2001 in the proportion of their population who are from minority ethnic groups.
Improvements in migration statistics
Since the early 2000s, and especially since Eastern European Countries joined the European Union (EU) in May 2004, migration has played a larger part in Scotland's demographic change than in the previous decade. So it has become more important to have high quality statistics on migration and the population, for policy development and for planning and providing public services. National Records of Scotland (NRS) was part of an inter-departmental effort, led by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), to improve the estimates of migration and migrant populations in the UK, both nationally and at a local level. More information on the Migration Statistics Improvement programme including the programme's final report is available on the ONS website.
The new information provided by the 2011 Census, as well as rebasing our population estimates for mid-2011, has allowed us to review our methodology and make improvements to elements of the rolling-forward process. Further analysis of census data, particularly relating to migration, and continuing work to incorporate new data sources, will help us to improve our methods and be confident that we continue to capture population change into the next decade and beyond.
More information about migration statistics
More detailed information about Scotland's migration can be found in the migration section of the NRS website.