Household estimates
In mid-2012, there were 2.39 million households in Scotland, which is an increase of around 175,000 over the past ten years. Figure 8.1 shows the annual change in the number of households from 2002 to 2012. The number of households in Scotland has been increasing by an average of around 17,500 a year since 2002. The rate of growth has slowed since 2007, and the increase of 10,778 households from 2011 to 2012 was the lowest in the last ten years. The main reason for this is likely to be the recent economic downturn, which led to reductions in new house building, and constrained mortgage and labour markets.
Figure 8.1: Annual increase in the number of households in Scotland between 2002 and 2012
Following the publication of 2011 Census data, the annual estimates of the number of households in Scotland were compared to the census estimates for 2011. The estimates published prior to the release of census data were within 1% of the 2011 Census estimates, both for Scotland and for the majority of local authorities. The household estimates for 2001 to 2011 have now been revised to take into account the 2011 Census and it is the revised estimates that are presented above.
Household projections
Projections of household numbers, covering a 25-year period, are produced every two years. The following projections are based on the estimated population of Scotland in mid-2010 and, unlike the household estimates above, do not incorporate data from the 2011 Census. The 2012-based household projections, incorporating 2011 Census data will be published in 2014[6].
The number of households in Scotland
By 2035, the number of households in Scotland is projected to increase to 2.89 million, which is an average of 21,230 additional households per year. This is the result of an ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households, as well as an increase in the population. Looking to the future, there is a projected increase in the number of people in older age groups (65+), with a small fall in the number of younger people (16-64). This has an impact on household structure, as elderly people are more likely to live alone or with just one other person.
Variations within Scotland
Over the last ten years, the number of households has increased in every council area in Scotland. These trends are likely to continue, with the number of households in almost every council area projected to increase. Figure 8.2, on the following page, shows the projected percentage change in the number of households in each council over the 25 year projection period (2010 to 2035).
In some areas, the number of households is projected to rise markedly, with 15 of the 32 council areas projected to increase by at least 20%. The largest projected increases are in City of Edinburgh (43%) and Perth and Kinross (43%). Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire and East Lothian also have projected increases of over 30%. In contrast, Inverclyde has a projected decrease of 6% over the same period.
Figure 8.2: Projected percentage change in households by Council area, 2010 to 2035
Household type
Figure 8.3 shows the number of households of each type in 1981 and the projected numbers for 2010 and 2035. There is a substantial increase in households containing just one adult (a projected increase of 49% between 2010[7] and 2035). There are also increases in households with two adults (a projected increase of 23%) and households with one adult with children (a projected increase of 51%).
In contrast, the number of larger households is falling, with households containing two or more adults with children, or three or more adults, projected to decrease by around 25% between 2010 and 2035.
Comparison of these projections with the 2011 Census suggests that these projections over-estimate the changes in household types over time, but that despite this, the trends will still be toward more smaller, and fewer larger, households[8].
Figure 8.3: Households in Scotland by household type: 1981, 2010 and 2035
Age group
Figure 8.4 shows the number of households in 1981 and the projected numbers in 2010[9] and 2035, by the age of the head of household. In 2001, the 'head of household' is the first person included on the census form, unless that person was aged under 16 or was not usually resident in the household.
Scotland's population is ageing, with a projected increase in the number of people in the older age groups. This trend is reflected in the projected number of households, with the largest increases found in households headed by people aged 65 or over (an increase of almost 60%, from 603,000 to 954,000 between 2010 and 2035). In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 65 are projected to increase by just 10%, to around 1.93 million. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 or over is projected to more than double over the same period, from 76,000 to 198,000.
Figure 8.4: Households in Scotland by age of head of household: 1981, 2010 and 2035
Dwelling estimates
The total number of dwellings shows a very similar trend to the total number of households. In September 2012, there were 2.52 million dwellings in Scotland, an increase of 0.6% compared to 2011. The total number of dwellings in Scotland is higher than the estimated number of households as not all dwellings are permanently occupied. For example, they may be vacant or second homes.
Single-adult households
Thirty-eight per cent of dwellings in Scotland are entitled to a Council Tax discount because there is only one adult living there (either alone, with children or with those 'disregarded' for Council Tax purposes). The proportion of dwellings entitled to a single-adult discount is higher in urban areas (42% in large urban areas, compared to 29% in rural areas) and in deprived areas (52% in the most deprived areas, compared to 28% in the least deprived areas), as illustrated in Figures 8.5 and 8.6.
Figure 8.5: Single-adult households1, by urban/rural classification, 2012
Figure 8.6: Single-adult households1, by level of deprivation2, 2012
Type of housing
There are higher proportions of flats in urban areas, and in more deprived areas, as shown in Figures 8.7 and 8.8. In contrast, there are higher proportions of detached houses in rural areas, and in less deprived areas.
The average number of rooms per dwelling is lower in more deprived areas, and in urban areas. Our statistics only contain information on the total number of rooms, not the type of room (e.g. bedrooms, etc).
Figure 8.7: Dwelling type, by urban/rural classification, 2012
Figure 8.8: Dwelling type, by level of deprivation1, 2012
Vacant dwellings and second homes
In Scotland 2.9% of dwellings are vacant and 1.5% are second homes, though there is wide variation across the country. Remote rural areas have the lowest percentage of dwellings which are occupied (88.0%), with higher percentages of vacant dwellings (4.8% of all dwellings in these areas) and second homes (7.2%), as shown in Figure 8.9. The most deprived areas have the highest percentage of dwellings which are vacant (4.4%), as shown in Figure 8.10.
Figure 8.9: Vacant dwellings and second homes, by urban/rural classification, 2012
Figure 8.10: Vacant dwellings and second homes, by level of deprivation1, 2012
Figure 8.11 shows the percentage of dwellings which are second homes in each 'data zone' in Scotland. A data zone is a standard geography which, at the time they were created in 2004, each contained around 750 people. Certain remote rural areas have the highest proportions of second homes, particularly parts of the west coast and some of the islands, Highland, Perthshire, and the area around the Cairngorms National Park. This map also illustrates the variation within council areas.
Figure 8.11: Percentage of dwellings which are second homes, in each data zone in Scotland, 2012
More information about households and housing statistics
More detailed information about Scotland's households and housing, including estimates and projections can be found in the households section of the NRS website.