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Household Projections for Scotland 2006-based

2. Notes on the household projections

• Uses: Household projections are mainly used for informing local authority decisions about future housing need and service provision.
• Interpreting the projections: These household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are based on the population projections and, as a result, assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the household projections. The household projections are trend-based and are not, therefore, policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. They do not take into account social and economic factors that may influence the formation of households including policies adopted by both central and local government as well as any imbalances between housing supply and demand. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable than those for larger groups.
• Method used: Household projections are produced every two years. This set of household projections has been prepared up to 2031, extending the projection period from 20 to 25 years. These household projections incorporate information from the latest (2006-based) population projections and the 2006 and 2007 household estimates. Information from the last two Censuses is also used to project trends in household composition. There has been a slight change in the methodology for calculating the private household population and more detailed information on this is available in Section 6.
• Variant projection: This report focuses on the "principal projection" but also includes a section on household projections prepared using the high migration variant population projection, which assumes larger net flows of migrants into Scotland.

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