Published on 21 October 2008
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Contents
1. Population projections
1.1 Main Points
1.2 Results
1.3 Methodology
2. Household projections
2.1 Summary of Results
2.2 Results
2.3 Notes on the household projections
Annex A: Summary of percentage increase in Population and Household
Projections in Scotland’s National Parks and Scotland,
2006-2031
Annex B: Data zones used in National Park projections
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Estimated and projected total population of the National
Parks, 2001—2031
Table 1.2a: Projected population for CNP, by age group and age
structure
Table 1.2b: Projected population for LLTNP, by age group and age
structure
Table 1.3a: Projected population of CNP, by sex, 2006 - 2031
Table 1.3b: Projected population of LLTNP by sex, 2006 —
2031
Table 2.1a: Household projections for CNP, by type of household,
2006-2031
Table 2.1b: Household projections for LLTNP, by type of household,
2006 - 2031
Table 2.2a: Household projections for CNP, by age of the head of
household, 2006 - 2031
Table 2.2b: Household projections for LLTNP, by age of the head of
household, 2006 — 2031
Table 2.3a: 2006-based household projections for CNP
Table 2.3b: 2006-based household projections for LLTNP
Table 2.4a: Projected percentage of people living alone in CNP, by
gender and age group, 2006-2031
Table 2.4b: Projected percentage of people living alone in LLTNP by
gender and age group, 2006-2031
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Projected population of CNP and LLTNP, 2006-2031
Figure 1.2a: Estimated population by age and sex, CNP, 2006
Figure 1.2b: Projected population by age and sex, CNP, 2031
Figure 1.3: The projected percentage change in CNP’s
population by age group, 2006 - 2031
Figure 1.4a: Estimated population by age and sex, LLTNP, 2006
Figure 1.4b: Projected population by age and sex, LLTNP, 2031
Figure 1.5: The projected percentage change in LLTNP’s
population by age group, 2006 — 2031
Figure 1.6: Estimated and projected natural change (births minus
deaths), net migration, and net change (net migration minus natural
change) in CNP, 2001 — 2031
Figure 1.7: Estimated and projected natural change (births minus
deaths), net migration, and net change (net migration minus natural
change) in LLTNP, 2001 — 2031
Figure 2.1: Population and household projections for both National
Parks: 2006-2031
Figure 2.2a: Projected number of households in CNP by household
type, 2006 and 2031
Figure 2.2b: Projected number of households in LLTNP by household
type, 2006 and 2031
Figure 2.3a: Projected number of households in CNP by age of head
of household, 2006 and 2031
Figure 2.3b: Projected number of households in LLTNP by age of head
of household, 2006 and 2031
Figure 2.4a(i): Percentage of people living alone in 2006 in CNP,
by age and gender
Figure 2.4a(ii): Projected percentage of people living alone in
2031 in CNP, by age and gender
Figure 2.4b(i): Percentage of people living alone in 2006 in LLTNP,
by age and gender
Figure 2.4b(ii): Projected percentage of people living alone in
2031 in LLTNP, by age and gender
Figure 2.5a: Projected number of households in the CNP by household
type and age of the head of household: 2006 and 2031
Figure 2.5b: Projected number of households in LLTNP by household
type and age of the head of household: 2006 and 2031
List of Maps
Map 1: Map of Scotland showing the location CNP and LLTNP
Map 2: The location of LLTNP and the local authorities that fall
within it
Map 3: The location of CNP and the local authorities that fall
within it
This report gives the General Register Office for Scotland’s forward projections for the population and the number of households in Scotland’s National Parks: Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park (LLTNP) and the Cairngorms National Park (CNP). The forward projections are given up to the year 2031, based on the estimated population of the National Parks in mid-2006.
This is the first set of population and household projections produced by GROS for Scotland’s National Parks. It is important to note that projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go, and projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable, and this is particularly the case for these National Park projections.