2.1.1 The results of the 2008-based projections show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.17 million in 2008 to 5.54 million in 2033 before slowly declining. Figure 1 shows the results for Scotland for 25 years ahead, up to 2033.
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland (2008-based), actual and projected, 1951 – 2033
1 2008-based projection.
2.1.2 A key point is that, in parallel with the projected rise in the size of the population over the next 25 years, Scotland’s population is projected to age markedly. Further details on the national projection results are available on the General Register Office for Scotland’s (GROS) website http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2008-based
2.2.1 The populations of 19 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase and 13 to decrease by 2033 as shown in Table 1. The map at Figure 2a and the chart at Figure 2b show the projected percentage change in population between 2008 and 2033 for each council area. In general, most councils adjacent or close to Edinburgh City and Aberdeen City are projected to have a relatively large increase compared with other large urban areas, for example Glasgow City and Dundee City. Other areas in the west, such as Inverclyde, East and West Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire are all projected to decline.
2.2.2 The council areas which are projected to show the largest relative increases over this period are East Lothian (+33 per cent), Perth & Kinross (+27 per cent), Clackmannanshire (+24 per cent) and West Lothian (+23 per cent). The largest relative population decreases are projected in Inverclyde (-18 per cent), East Dunbartonshire (-13 per cent), West Dunbartonshire (-8 per cent) and Shetland (-7 per cent). Table 3 shows the projected percentage change in population for selected years.
2.2.3 The overall projected population change is a result of a combination of natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) and migration. The relative importance of each factor differs between areas. Table A compares the projected rates of natural change and migration across council areas between 2008 and 2033. In some areas of projected population increase such as, East Lothian, Perth & Kinross, Clackmannanshire, West Lothian and Aberdeenshire the population gain over this 25 year period is attributable both to gains from migration and to more births than deaths. For Midlothian, North Lanarkshire and Glasgow the population is projected to increase due to more births than deaths despite net out-migration. In other areas, the projected increase is due to in-migration despite fewer births than deaths, as in Highland, Scottish Borders, and Orkney.
2.2.4 Similarly some areas of projected population decline, such as Inverclyde, East and West Dunbartonshire and Shetland are projected to experience decreases from both migration and natural change. In East Renfrewshire the projected population decline is due to net out-migration despite more births than deaths. In contrast, in areas such as Argyll & Bute, Eilean Siar, and South Ayrshire the population decline is due to more deaths than births despite net in-migration.
Table A Components of projected population change for council areas, 2008-2033
|
Area |
Natural change1 |
Net migration2 |
Percentage projected population change3 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
SCOTLAND |
1.1 |
6.2 |
7.3 |
|
Council areas sorted |
|||
|
Inverclyde |
-5.8 |
-11.7 |
-17.5 |
|
East Dunbartonshire |
-2.7 |
-9.9 |
-12.6 |
|
West Dunbartonshire |
-0.2 |
-7.8 |
-8.0 |
|
Shetland Islands |
-2.0 |
-5.5 |
-7.5 |
|
Argyll & Bute |
-8.0 |
2.3 |
-5.7 |
|
Renfrewshire |
-0.8 |
-4.4 |
-5.3 |
|
Dundee City |
0.0 |
-5.1 |
-5.1 |
|
North Ayrshire |
-4.0 |
-0.3 |
-4.3 |
|
Eilean Siar |
-12.5 |
8.4 |
-4.1 |
|
East Renfrewshire |
1.9 |
-5.3 |
-3.4 |
|
South Ayrshire |
-6.7 |
5.6 |
-1.2 |
|
Dumfries & Galloway |
-7.3 |
6.3 |
-1.0 |
|
East Ayrshire |
-1.7 |
1.7 |
-0.0 |
|
Glasgow City |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
1.4 |
|
Moray |
-0.6 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
|
North Lanarkshire |
3.7 |
-0.5 |
3.2 |
|
Midlothian |
3.3 |
-0.1 |
3.3 |
|
Aberdeen City |
1.8 |
2.6 |
4.4 |
|
Stirling |
2.6 |
4.2 |
6.8 |
|
Angus |
-3.7 |
11.4 |
7.7 |
|
South Lanarkshire |
1.2 |
8.0 |
9.2 |
|
Fife |
1.5 |
8.6 |
10.1 |
|
Orkney Islands |
-6.0 |
18.1 |
12.1 |
|
Falkirk |
2.5 |
10.5 |
13.0 |
|
Scottish Borders |
-2.6 |
18.3 |
15.7 |
|
Edinburgh, City of |
3.8 |
13.0 |
16.8 |
|
Highland |
-1.5 |
19.1 |
17.6 |
|
Aberdeenshire |
4.7 |
17.6 |
22.3 |
|
West Lothian |
12.4 |
10.5 |
22.9 |
|
Clackmannanshire |
4.4 |
19.6 |
24.0 |
|
Perth & Kinross |
1.0 |
25.8 |
26.9 |
|
East Lothian |
9.8 |
23.7 |
33.5 |
1 Projected natural
change between 2008 and 2033 per 100 population at 2008
2Projected change due to migration between 2008 and
2033 per 100 population at 2008
3Ordered by projected population change
Figure 2a Projected percentage change in population, (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 (Map)
Figure 2b Projected percentage change in population (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 (Chart)
2.3.1 There are also projected differences in the size of the populations of NHS board areas over the next 25 years. This is illustrated in the map at Figure 3a and the chart at Figure 3b both of which show the projected percentage change in the population of NHS board areas between 2008 and 2033.
2.3.2 Nine of the NHS board areas are projected to increase and 5 to decrease. The areas with the largest relative projected increases are Lothian (+19 per cent), Borders (+16 per cent), and Forth Valley (+13 per cent). The areas with the largest relative projected decreases are Shetland (-7 per cent), Western Isles (-4 per cent), Greater Glasgow & Clyde (-2 per cent) and Ayrshire & Arran (-2 per cent). Table 3 shows the projected percentage change in population for selected years.
2.4 Age structure across Scotland
2.4.1 As well as wide differences in the projected size of the population for different areas, there are large differences in the projected age structure. Table 2 gives detailed population projections by age group and Table 3 gives the changes for selected age bands. For Scotland as a whole, the number of children aged 0-15 is projected to decrease by 2 per cent from 0.91 million in 2008 to 0.90 million by 2033. The number of people of working age is projected to increase by 2 per cent from 3.24 million to 3.31 million and the number of people of pensionable age to increase by 31 per cent from 1.02 million to 1.34 million.
2.4.2 These changes take into account the increases in the state pension age which will rise from 60 to 65 for women between 2010 and 2020 and then from 65 to 66 for both men and women between 2024 and 2026. A further increase to age 68 for both men and women will occur between 2034 and 2046.
Figure 3a Projected percentage change in population, (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033 (Map)
Figure 3b Projected percentage change (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033 (Chart)
2.4.3 The number of children aged 0-15 is projected to decrease in 20 of the 32 council areas by 2033. The exceptions are East Lothian (+38 per cent), Perth & Kinross (+24 per cent), Clackmannanshire (+17 per cent), West Lothian (+16 per cent), Aberdeenshire (+11 per cent), Scottish Borders (+9 per cent), Highland (+8 per cent), South Lanarkshire (+2 per cent), Fife (+2 per cent), Edinburgh (+1 per cent), Falkirk (+1 per cent), and Angus (an increase of less than 1 per cent). The projected decline in the other council areas ranges from -33 per cent in Shetland to -1 per cent in Orkney and Stirling, as shown in Figure 4a.
Figure 4a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
2.4.4 There are also projected differences in the size of the working age3 population between council areas by 2033. Figure 4b and Table 3 show the percentage change in the working age population between 2008 and 2033 and include the change in women’s state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change to 66 for both men and women by 2026. Of course this is the state retirement age and in practice people will retire at a range of ages. The working age population is projected to increase in 15 council areas by 2033, increasing the most in East Lothian (+29 per cent), Perth & Kinross (+23 per cent), Clackmannanshire (+20 per cent) and Edinburgh (+17 per cent). A decrease is projected in the remaining 17 council areas ranging from a decrease of -26 per cent in Inverclyde to less than -1 per cent in Angus.
Figure 4b Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
2.4.5 There are also differences between council areas in terms of the projected percentage change in the population of pensionable age4 (taking into account the change in state retirement age), as Figure 4c shows. The population of pensionable age is projected to increase in all council areas by 2033. The largest relative increases are projected to be in Aberdeenshire (+65 per cent), West Lothian (+59 per cent), Shetland (+52 per cent), and Orkney (+51 per cent).
Figure 4c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age1 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and
the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
2.4.6 By 2033 the Scottish population aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 84 per cent. It is assumed to increase in all council areas, ranging from a projected increase of 28 per cent in Glasgow City to a projected increase of 151 per cent in West Lothian, as shown in Figure 4d.
Figure 4d Projected percentage change in population aged 75 and over (2008 based), by council area, 2008-2033
2.4.7 There are similar variations by NHS board area. Figure 5a, Figure 5b, Figure 5c, and Figure 5d show the projected percentage change in the number of children (aged 0-15), people of working age, people of pensionable age and people aged 75 and over, by NHS board areas. The number of children is projected to decrease in half of NHS board areas (Shetland, Western Islands, Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Ayrshire & Arran, Dumfries & Galloway, Lanarkshire and Orkney) and to increase in the other half. In addition, the population of working age is projected to decrease in six NHS board areas (Shetland, Western Isles, Dumfries & Galloway, Ayrshire & Arran, Greater Glasgow & Clyde, and Lanarkshire) and to increase in the other eight. The population of pensionable age is projected to increase in all NHS board areas, ranging from an increase of 18 per cent in Greater Glasgow & Clyde to +52 per cent in Shetland. The population of people aged 75 and over is also projected to increase in all NHS board areas, with the largest projected increase in Shetland (+132 per cent), and the smallest increase in Greater Glasgow & Clyde (+52 per cent).
2.4.8 Table B summarises these changes, moving from the area with the greatest projected population decrease (Inverclyde) to the area with the largest increase (East Lothian). In general the decreases in population are largely associated with large decreases in children and working age population, while increases are associated with large increases in the pensionable aged population.
Figure 5a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Figure 5b Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
Figure 5c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age1 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
Figure 5d Projected percentage change in population aged 75 and over (2008 based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Table B Projected percentage change in population (2008-based), by broad age group and council areas, 2008-2033
|
Area |
All ages |
Children (0-15) |
Working Ages1 |
Pensionable Ages1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SCOTLAND |
7.3 |
-1.5 |
2.2 |
31.4 |
|
Council areas sorted |
||||
|
Inverclyde |
-17.5 |
-29.1 |
-26.3 |
18.3 |
|
East Dunbartonshire |
-12.6 |
-25.5 |
-22.0 |
24.6 |
|
West Dunbartonshire |
-8.0 |
-14.8 |
-13.8 |
17.5 |
|
Shetland Islands |
-7.5 |
-32.5 |
-18.5 |
52.2 |
|
Argyll & Bute |
-5.7 |
-13.7 |
-14.1 |
19.7 |
|
Renfrewshire |
-5.3 |
-10.8 |
-11.9 |
21.2 |
|
Dundee City |
-5.1 |
-7.8 |
-8.6 |
7.6 |
|
North Ayrshire |
-4.3 |
-15.3 |
-12.0 |
26.6 |
|
Eilean Siar |
-4.1 |
-17.4 |
-11.7 |
23.6 |
|
East Renfrewshire |
-3.4 |
-12.5 |
-11.7 |
29.1 |
|
South Ayrshire |
-1.2 |
-5.1 |
-9.1 |
20.5 |
|
Dumfries & Galloway |
-1.0 |
-8.1 |
-10.8 |
26.3 |
|
East Ayrshire |
0.0 |
-7.8 |
-6.6 |
26.6 |
|
Glasgow City |
1.4 |
-9.2 |
1.8 |
10.5 |
|
Moray |
2.9 |
-6.3 |
-6.0 |
35.7 |
|
North Lanarkshire |
3.2 |
-5.5 |
-1.8 |
29.9 |
|
Midlothian |
3.3 |
-3.5 |
-3.4 |
30.6 |
|
Aberdeen City |
4.4 |
-4.9 |
0.5 |
27.0 |
|
Stirling |
6.8 |
-1.1 |
1.3 |
30.8 |
|
Angus |
7.7 |
0.4 |
-0.7 |
34.4 |
|
South Lanarkshire |
9.2 |
1.7 |
3.3 |
35.2 |
|
Fife |
10.1 |
1.6 |
3.8 |
36.9 |
|
Orkney Islands |
12.1 |
-1.2 |
1.5 |
50.7 |
|
Falkirk |
13.0 |
1.1 |
9.7 |
35.3 |
|
Scottish Borders |
15.7 |
8.7 |
8.1 |
40.5 |
|
Edinburgh, City of |
16.8 |
1.4 |
16.7 |
30.8 |
|
Highland |
17.6 |
7.6 |
8.8 |
50.3 |
|
Aberdeenshire |
22.3 |
10.6 |
12.8 |
64.9 |
|
West Lothian |
22.9 |
16.2 |
15.9 |
59.5 |
|
Clackmannanshire |
24.0 |
16.7 |
20.2 |
44.0 |
|
Perth & Kinross |
26.9 |
24.4 |
22.8 |
39.4 |
|
East Lothian |
33.5 |
37.9 |
28.7 |
43.2 |
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
2.4.9 The preceding paragraphs describe the projected percentage change by administrative area. It is also useful to look at the existing and projected age structure of the different areas. Figure 6a and Figure 6b and Figure 7a and Figure 7b show the proportion of the population who are children (aged 0-15), of working age and of pensionable age in 2008 and 2033 for council and NHS board areas respectively. The projected proportion of the population of Scotland of pensionable age increases from 20 per cent in 2008 to 24 per cent in 2033. The pattern is similar in nearly all areas. Amongst council areas in 2008, Dumfries & Galloway, Argyll & Bute (both 25 per cent), Eilean Siar and South Ayrshire (both 24 per cent) have the highest proportions of people of pensionable age and West Lothian (16 per cent), Glasgow City (16 per cent) and Edinburgh (17 per cent) the lowest. The projected picture by 2033 is similar with Dumfries & Galloway still highest at 32 per cent. Glasgow City (18 per cent), Edinburgh (19 per cent) and West Lothian (21 per cent) still have the lowest proportions.
Figure 6a Age structure of council areas in 2008: children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
Figure 6b Projected age structure of council areas in 2033 (2008-based): children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
2.4.10 For NHS board areas a comparable pattern can be seen. In 2008, Dumfries & Galloway NHS board area has the highest proportion of its population of pensionable age (25 per cent) and it is still projected to have the highest proportion by 2033 (32 per cent). The area with the lowest proportion of its population of pensionable age in 2008 is Lothian (18 per cent) and in 2033 the proportion of pensionable age is still lowest in Lothian (20 per cent). A key point from all four charts is that the population in nearly all areas is projected to age by 2033 and it is important to note that the existing age structure of the area in the base year has an impact on the age structure for future years.
Figure 7a Age structure of NHS board areas in 2008: children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and
the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
Figure 7b Projected age structure of NHS board areas in 2033 (2008-based): children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and
the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026