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Projected Population of Scotland (2010-based)

Main Points

The key points in this report are as follows:

Principal projection

• The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.22 million in 2010 to 5.49 million in 2020, and to continue to rise to 5.76 million in 2035 - an increase of 10 per cent over the 25 year period.

• Between 2010 and 2020 the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by 5 per cent from 0.91 to 0.96 million. It is then projected to decrease slightly to 0.94 million in 2035 (a 3 per cent increase compared with 2010).

• The number of people of working age^[1] is projected to increase from 3.27 million in 2010 to 3.45 million in 2020 (an increase of 6 per cent). Following a small dip, the projected working age population then increases to 3.50 million by 2035 (an increase of 7 per cent from 2010).

• The number of people of pensionable age^[2] is projected to rise from 1.04 million in 2010 to 1.07 million in 2020 (an increase of 3 per cent). It is then projected to rise more rapidly, reaching 1.32 million in 2035 (an increase of around 26 per cent compared with 2010).

• The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 23 per cent in the first ten years of the projection period, from 0.41 million in 2010 to 0.50 million in 2020. It is then projected to continue rising, reaching 0.74 million in 2035 - an increase of 82 per cent over the 25 year period.

• The dependency ratio - the ratio of people aged under 16 and over pensionable age to those of working age - is projected to rise from around 60 per 100 in 2010 to 64 per 100 in 2035.

• The populations of the other three countries in the UK are projected to increase more than Scotland's with England's population projected to increase by 19 per cent, Wales' by 12 per cent and Northern Ireland's by 11 per cent between 2010 and 2035.

Variant projections

• Under each of the alternative scenarios illustrated by the nine available variant projections, Scotland's population is projected to increase between 2010 and 2020. All but the natural change only variant also show an increase over the first 25 years of the projection.

• All the variant projections show Scotland's population ageing significantly over the next 25 years with the number of people aged 75+ projected to increase by between 69 per cent and 95 per cent under these variant assumptions.

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