Projected Population of Scotland (2012-based)

National population projections by sex and age, with UK comparisons

Published on 6 November 2013

Correction: 29 November 2013

Correction: 9 December 2014

A National Statistics publication for Scotland

Contents

Limitations of projections

2. Uses and limitations of projections

3. Summary of results

4. The base population and assumptions used in the projections

5. Comparison with previous projections

6. Scotland's position within the United Kingdom

7. Scotland's position within Europe

8. Long term and variant projections

9. Further information

Annex A: Fertility assumptions

Annex B: Mortality assumptions

Annex C: Migration assumptions

Annex D: Variant projections and assumptions

Notes on statistical publications

Related organisations

List of Tables

Table A: Projected age structure of Scotland's population (percentage of total population)

Table B: Projected number of dependents per 100 population of working age, Scotland

Table 1: Projected population of Scotland (2012-based): 2012-2082

Table 2: Projected components of population change, Scotland, 2012-2037

Table 3: Projected population of Scotland (2012-based), by age group, 2012-2037

Table 4: Projected number of dependents per 100 population of working age, Scotland, 2012-2037

Table 5a: Projected number of births, Scotland, 2016-2037

Table 5b: Projected number of deaths, Scotland, 2016-2037

Table 5c: Projected population, Scotland, 2017-2037

Table 6: Projected population of Scotland (2012-based), by sex and age group, 2012-2037

Table 7: Principal and selected variant projections (2012-based), Scotland, 2012-2082

Table 8: Projected population change for selected variant projections (2012-based), Scotland, 2012-2037

Table A1: Assumptions of long-term average completed family size, 2010 and 2012-based projections

Table D1: Assumptions for the 2012-based principal and nine variant projections for Scotland

Table D2: Variants and Scenario

List of Figures

Figure 1: Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1952- 2087

Figure 2: Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1952-2037

Figure 3: Estimated and projected net migration, Scotland, 1952-2037

Figure 4: Estimated and projected age structure of Scotland's population, mid-2012 and mid-2037

Figure 5: The projected percentage change in Scotland's population by age group, 2012-2037

Figure 6: Estimated and projected numbers of children aged 0 to 15, Scotland, mid-2012, mid-2022 and mid-2037

Figure 7: Estimated and projected population aged 70 and over, Scotland, mid-2012, mid-2022 and mid-2037

Figure 8: Dependency ratio (dependents per 100 working age population) Under the 2012-based principal projection, 2012-2037

Figure 9: Expectation of life at birth actual and projected, Scotland, 1984-2037

Figure 10: Actual and projected total population compared with previous projections, 1983-2037

Figure 11: Actual and projected natural change (births minus deaths) compared with previous projections, 1984-2037

Figure 12: Actual and projected net migration compared with previous projections, 1983-2037

Figure 13: Comparison of population change for UK countries, 2012-2037

Figure 14: Projected percentage population change in selected European countries, 2010-2035, 2010-based projections

Figure 15: Actual and projected total population of Scotland, under the 2012-based principal and selected variant projections, 1982-2087

Figure 16: Percentage change in age structure under the 2012-based principal and selected variant projections, 2012-2037

Figure 17: Average (median) age of Scotland's population under the 2012-based principal and selected variant projections, 2012-2037

Figure 18: Dependency ratios (dependents per 100 working age population) under the 2012-based principal and selected variant projections, 2012-2037

Figure 19: Children per 100 working age population under the 2012-based principal and selected variant projections, 2012-2037

Figure 20: Pensioners per 100 working age population under the 2012-based principal and selected variant projections, 2012-2037

Figure A1: Scotland age specific fertility, 1983-2012

Figure B1: Period Expectations of life (Eol) for Scotland less respective expectation of life for UK - for males at birth and ages 20, 40, 60 and 80, 1983-2012

Figure B2: Period Expectations of life (Eol) for Scotland less respective expectation of life for UK - for females at birth and ages 20, 40, 60 and 80, 1983-2012

Figure C1: Natural Change and Net Migration, 1952 to 2012

A National Statistics publication for Scotland.
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