This is the second of my Annual Reports in this new format – designed to highlight key trends and issues affecting Scotland’s population for a wider audience.
But this year’s review does more than simply update last year’s findings. I want to focus this year on one of the major issues affecting population change in Scotland today and in the future – declining fertility. Scotland’s birth rate has fallen significantly in the last two decades and it is currently the lowest of any of the countries in the UK. Moreover, Scotland’s population is falling more because of the excess of deaths over births than because of migration loss and this is projected to continue.
So, following an overview of demographic change in Scotland, this review contains two new chapters:
I hope that this review will stimulate an informed debate on the policy options. My job as Registrar General is to set out the facts and describe the trends rather than make policy prescriptions. The views expressed by Dr Graham and Professor Boyle are also of course their own, and do not necessarily reflect those of my Office, or indeed the Scottish Executive. It is for others (the Scottish Executive, local Councils, and a host of other organisations and individuals) to take decisions about policy, but I believe that these decisions will be better informed if they are based on a clear exposition of the facts.
Finally, I would note that a range of other detailed information about Scotland’s population is available elsewhere. Results from the 2001 Census can be accessed via our SCROL (Scotland’s Census Results OnLine) website (www.scrol.gov.uk), while for other information please contact the GROS Customer Services team (see Contact Points).
JOHN RANDALL
Registrar General for Scotland
July 2003