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Scotland's Population 2004: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends: 150th Edition

KEY POINTS

The key points in this report (with historical information in purple) are:

Population

Scotland's population rose by 21,000 in the year to 30 June 2004 to 5,078,400.

Each year since 1997, there has been a natural decrease (more deaths than births), and in the year to 30 June 2004, it was 4,000.

In the same year, migrants boosted the population by a net 26,000: 15,500 from the rest of the UK, 11,700 from the rest of the world, and an adjustment for unmeasured migration of -1,500. In-migrants from the rest of the UK exceeded out-migrants in every age group.

Current projections suggest that Scotland’s population will fall below 5 million in 2017, reaching

4.88 million in 2028 – with drop of 18 per cent in under-16s and an increase of 60 per cent in over-75s.

Over the past 140 years, Scotland’s share of the population of the UK (as currently constituted) fell from 12.5 per cent in 1861 to 8.6 per cent in 2001.

Scotland’s population has increased by 70 per cent since civil registration began in 1855, mainly before 1911 despite emigration in that period of almost 1 million Scots.

In 1861 almost three-quarters of people born outside Scotland were born in Ireland, but in 2001 less than a tenth were.

People born outside the British Isles were most likely to have been born in (the rest of) Europe and America in 1901 and, in 2001, in Asia and Europe.

The number of Gaelic speakers fell by three-quarters in the last 100 years.

Housing standards have improved: there were almost 2 people per room in 1861 but less than half a person per room in 2001.

Births

There were 53,957 births in 2004, 1,525 more than in 2003 but half the number in the early 1960s. It is too soon to say whether this second successive annual increase represents a turning point in the decline experienced up to 2002.

In the mid 19th century there were around 35 births per year per 1,000 population; by the end of the 20th century this rate was around 10.

Deaths

There were 56,187 deaths in 2004 – the lowest total recorded since the introduction of Civil Registration in 1855.

Around 1 in 7 children died in the first year of life in the second half of the 19th century, compared to around 1 in 200 in 2004.

There were 5.8 stillbirths per 1,000 births (live and still) in 2004, a substantial reduction from 13.1 per 1,000 in 1971, but a slight increase from 2003.

In 2004, the two most common causes of death were cancer (27 per cent of deaths) and ischaemic heart disease (19 per cent).

There were 606 deaths classified as suicide ("intentional self-harm") in 2004, 46 more than in 2003.

A male baby born in 2004 could expect to live for 74.2 years and a female baby for 79.3 years increases from 67.3 and 73.7 for those born in 1971.

Expectation of life at birth for females has risen by 35 years since the mid 19th century. It has consistently been higher than for males but the gap has been decreasing recently.

The number of centenarians (registered as such at death) remained at about 20 in the 50 years to 1960 since when it has risen to almost 300.

Marriages

There were 32,154 marriages in 2004 - the highest figure since 1993.

2004 was the second full year in which civil marriages could be conducted in ‘approved places’ outside registration offices. 5,974 civil ceremonies (19 per cent of all marriages and 38 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted in approved places – a rise of 72 per cent from 2003.

In 2004, Gretna was the location of more than one in six marriages in Scotland.

The annual number of marriages registered rose from around 20,000 in 1855 to a peak of over 53,000 in 1940.

In 1861, 32 per cent of men in their twenties were married and this percentage had risen 100 years later to 49 per cent, falling to 14 per cent in 2001. The rates for women aged 20-29 were similar but higher, with 66 per cent married in 1961.

When civil marriages were introduced in 1940, they made up around a tenth of all marriages; in 2004, almost half of marriages were civil ceremonies.

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