In this Annual Report, my colleagues and I have highlighted for a wide audience the trends and issues affecting Scotland’s population.
Over the past 3 years, Scotland’s population has been rising – against the previous trend of slow decline from the early 1970s. The birth rate has been rising, which is unusual in developed countries and which may (or may not!) be a short term phenomenon. Over the last 3 years, too, in-migration has significantly exceeded out-migration – a picture radically different from Scotland of the 1960s and 1970s, and even the 1980s. This report casts light on these facets of Scotland’s demography. But there are still many points where we can observe demographic changes without having a clear view of why they occur. The Scottish Executive and the Economic and Social Research Council have funded a 2 year £300,000 project to investigate three key aspects of Scotland’s demography – migration, fertility and the impact of an ageing population – and we will soon know the results.
The most interesting question, which this report does not answer, is whether these recent trends will continue. Whether they do or not, Scotland’s demography will throw down some interesting challenges for the future.
Each year, we pick a ‘special subject’ for the report. This year, we have chosen to focus on causes of death. Scotland’s death rate has been steadily falling for many years: it stood at 11 deaths per 1,000 population in 2005, compared to 11.9 only ten years ago. Chapter 2 of this Report looks back to 1855 (when the present system of death registration began) and analyses changes in the causes of death. It points to the dramatic decline in deaths from infectious diseases such as typhoid, smallpox, measles, whooping cough and tuberculosis – which killed thousands of people in the mid-19th century but which are rare causes of death nowadays. It gives special attention to trends in the 3 main causes of death in Scotland today – cancer, heart disease and stroke – and shows that modern medical practice is continuing to reduce the death toll. But it also highlights causes of death which are increasing – such as cancer of the oesophagus, cirrhosis of the liver and other causes of death which are often linked to excessive alcohol consumption. Making an impact on these causes of death is one of the challenges modern Scottish society faces.
To keep the report to a manageable size, I could not include every statistic about Scotland’s population. There is a wealth of other demographic information on our main website (www.nrscotland.gov.uk). Our Statistics Customer Services team are always happy to help: they can be contacted at [email protected].
Duncan Macniven
Registrar General for Scotland
July 2006