Population
Scotland’s population rose for the third year running in the year to 30 June 2005, by 16,400 to 5,094,800.
For the eighth year in a row, there were more deaths than births, although the difference of 2,300 was the smallest since 1998.
The increase in population in the latest year was because in-migrants exceeded out-migrants by 19,000 – 12,500 from the rest of the UK and 7,300 from the rest of the world. Although net in-migration in the year to 30 June 2005 was lower than in the previous year, it was still the second highest since the early 1950s.
For the second year running, in-migrants from the rest of the UK exceeded out-migrants in every age group.
Scotland’s population in mid-2005 was only slightly lower (0.2 per cent) than in mid-1995. While there were 10 per cent fewer people aged under 30, there were sharp increases for those aged 30 and over, particularly for those aged 45-59 and 75 & over (14 and 15 per cent, respectively).
The biggest increases in population in the last 10 years have been in West Lothian, East Lothian and Stirling, while Eilean Siar, Aberdeen City and Inverclyde have accounted for the largest decreases over the same period.
Current projections suggest that Scotland’s population will rise to 5.13 million in 2019 before falling below 5 million in 2036, reaching 4.86 million by 2044. This projected long-term decline is mostly the result of fewer births and more deaths.
Births
There were 54,386 births in 2005, 429 more than in 2004. This was a modest rise compared to the previous year’s increase of 1,525.
47 per cent of births in 2005 were to unmarried parents, compared with 34 per cent in 1995.
In 2005, the average age of the mother at childbirth was 29.5, compared with 27.4 in 1991, 26.1 in 1977, and 27.4 in 1964.
The total fertility rate (TFR) rose to 1.62 in 2005, higher than the historic low of 1.48 in 2002, but much lower than the 1964 peak of 3.09 and the ‘replacement’ level of about 2.1.
The average completed family size for women born in 1971 was 1.06 by the time they reached 30 – for women born in 1951, the same figure was 1.67.
Deaths
There were 55,747 deaths in 2005, 440 fewer than in 2004 and the lowest total recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855.
There were 5.3 stillbirths per thousand births (live and still) in 2005, a reduction from 5.8 per thousand in 2004 and 13.1 per thousand in 1971.
In 2005, the two most common causes of death were cancer (27 per cent of deaths) and ischaemic (coronary) heart disease (19 per cent).
The total number of suicides and probable suicides (‘intentional self-harm’ and ‘undetermined’) in 2005 was 763, a fall of 72 on 2004.
A male baby born in 2004 could expect to live for 74.3 years and a female baby for 79.4 years – increases from 69.1 and 75.4 for those born in 1981.
For Scottish males, expectation of life is almost 1 year lower than the EU (25 states) average and, for females, it is almost 2 years lower.
Marriages
There were 30,881 marriages in Scotland in 2005, 4 per cent fewer than in 2004 but around the same number as in 2003. The number of marriages in recent years has been significantly lower than the numbers in the early 1970s, when typically over 40,000 marriages took place each year.
For a quarter of the marriages in 2005 neither party was resident in Scotland. More than half of those marriages took place at Gretna.
Divorced people accounted for over a quarter of people marrying in 2005, an increase from just under 6 per cent in 1971.
Civil and religious marriages each accounted for around half of all marriages in 2005. In 1971, over two-thirds of marriages were religious.
From June 2002, civil marriages can be conducted in ‘approved places’ outwith registration offices. In 2005, 7,055 civil ceremonies (23 per cent of all marriages and 45 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted at these ‘approved places’.
Households
Between 2004 and 2024, the number of households is projected to increase by 13 per cent to 2.5 million - an average of 14,800 additional households per year.
Most of the projected increase in the number of households is the result of the ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households, rather than an increase in the overall population. This is part of a longer-term trend – the average household size fell from over 3 people in the 1960s to 2.2 people by 2004, and is projected to fall below 2 people by 2024.
The largest projected increases are in small households with one and two adults, and there are projected decreases in the number of larger households, containing two or more adults with children, or three or more adults.
The number of households headed by someone aged 60 or over is projected to increase by over a third between 2004 and 2024, to nearly a million, whereas the number of households headed by someone aged under 60 is projected to increase by just two per cent, to around 1.5 million.
Causes of Death
The death rate in Scotland has fallen from 21 deaths per 1,000 population in 1855 to 11 in 2005.
The number of deaths of children aged under 5 fell from 22,671 in 1855 to 344 in 2005. Included in these figures, and in the same time period, infant deaths fell from 11,691 in 1855 to 284 in 2005.
In 1855, 493 mothers died due to disorders in pregnancy and complications during and after childbirth, compared to 4 in 2005.
Deaths from infectious diseases declined dramatically during the twentieth century. In particular, the number of deaths caused by tuberculosis fell from 9,619 in 1905 to 49 in 2005.
The number of deaths from whooping cough and measles fell from 1,903 and 1,180 respectively in 1855 to zero in 2005.
The influenza pandemic in 1918-19 is estimated to have claimed more than 22,000 lives in Scotland.
Death rates from circulatory diseases peaked in the 1950s, when this grouping of diseases accounted for over 50 per cent of all deaths in Scotland. In 2005 they accounted for 36 per cent of deaths.
Cancer now accounts for the greatest number of deaths, with lung cancer the most common cause. For men, the annual death rate rose sharply to a peak in the 1970s before falling ever since. For women, by contrast, the rate was lower and increased more gradually until the mid-1990s but has not reduced significantly since then.
Alcohol-related deaths significantly increased from the early 1990s, particularly among men aged 45-59.