The number of deaths registered in Scotland in the first quarter of this year was almost 9% lower than the expected number, according to figures published today by National Records of Scotland.
16,755 deaths were recorded between 1 January and 31 March, 8.9% lower than the expected number which was 18,391.
Phillipa Haxton, Head of Vital Events Statistics at NRS, said:
“The number of deaths was almost 9% lower than our expected number for this time of year.
“The method for calculating excess deaths accounts for the large numbers of babies born post war reaching the age groups at which end of life is more likely. The previous method did not adjust for the increasing size of this group and underestimated how many deaths there would be in the population.”
In all age groups, deaths have been below expected levels for the last three quarters. In quarter 1 of 2024, deaths among under 65s were 117 (4%) lower than expected, deaths in the 65-79 age group were 468 (8%) below expected and deaths for people aged 80 and over were 1,051 (11%) lower than expected levels.
11,560 births were registered in Scotland in the same timeframe. This is 4.6% lower than the five year average. There were 3,205 marriages in quarter one of 2024, an increase of 8.3% on the recent average.
These figures are provisional. The excess death figures are Official Statistics in Development. Final figures covering the whole of 2023 will be issued with Vital Events Reference tables in July.
Background
As a result of methodology changes, we are no longer producing as many breakdowns of excess deaths as we previously did. Information on future developments to the new excess deaths methodology can be found on the ONS website.
Comparisons for statistics (other than deaths) are usually made by comparing the current year to the average for the previous five years. For 2023, standard practice would be to compare against the 2018- 2022 average. As the 2020 figures were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic – marriages were much lower than usual and registration of births was delayed - comparing the 2024 figures to an average including 2020 would not give a true reflection of how the latest quarter’s figures compare to the average.
2024 comparisons have therefore been made against the 5 years 2018-2019 plus 2021-2023.
