There were 2,704 additional seasonal deaths in the winter of 2024/2025 – almost one in five of which were due to flu – according to new figures from National Records of Scotland.
Additional winter deaths are the difference between the number of deaths in the four months of winter and the average of the two four-month periods either side.
The 24/25 figure is higher than the previous winter which had 1,796 additional winter deaths, but it is not unusually high compared to figures from the last decade.
In total there were 22,272 deaths between December 2024 and March 2025, an increase of 1.3% in the number of deaths compared to the previous winter.
NRS Head of Vital Events Statistics Phillipa Haxton said:
“The illnesses most associated with increased deaths in winter are flu, dementia, and coronary heart disease.
“Increased winter deaths are linked to age. In winter 2024 to 2025, there were 18 per cent more deaths among people aged 85 or older compared to the months before and after winter. In the under 65 age group there were 9 per cent more deaths in winter.”
The general trend has been upward in the last decade but going back to the 1950s and 60s the longer term trend shows fewer winter deaths.
Very few deaths are directly due to cold weather. There have been fewer than ten deaths attributed to “exposure to excessive natural cold” in each year since 2019.
In the last 70 years, only the first pandemic year of 2020 saw more deaths outside of winter than during it.
Background
- The full ‘Winter Mortality in Scotland’ publication is available from the NRS website. It shows the seasonal increase in mortality recorded each winter in Scotland, broken down by age group, sex, cause of death, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile, NHS Board, and Local Authority area.
- The seasonal increase in mortality in the winter represents the number of additional deaths in winter. It is defined as the difference between the number of deaths in the four month winter period (December to March) and the average number of deaths in the two four-month periods which precede winter (August to November) and follow winter (April to July).
- To account for differences in population size, seasonal increases for different areas are better compared using the Increased Winter Mortality Index (IWMI). This is defined as the number of additional winter deaths divided by the average number of deaths in a four month non-winter period, expressed as a percentage.
