Most of Scotland’s council areas are projected to see an increase in population, according to new figures from National Records of Scotland (NRS).
The Subnational Population Projections are based on estimates of the country’s local populations in mid-2022 and look 10 years into the future. These are projections showing what would happen if past trends continue, rather than forecasts.
NRS statisticians found that 23 council areas would see population growth if past trends continue to mid-2032. Nine would see a decrease.
Midlothian is projected to have the largest population increase at 14.7%. If past trends continue, Inverclyde would see the biggest fall with its population down 5.4%.
Midlothian and Edinburgh are the only areas projected to see more births than deaths in the 10 years to mid-2032.
NRS’ head of population and migration statistics Andrew White said:
“All 32 council areas are projected to see more people entering than leaving in the 10 years to mid-2032, if past trends continue. This is the biggest driver of population growth.
Everywhere outside Edinburgh and Midlothian is expected to see more deaths than births. If it wasn’t for migration, the population would be projected to fall.”
These projections are based on demographic trends up to mid-2022. If these trends continue, NRS projects that the population will continue to age as the baby boom generations move into their seventies and beyond. The trend of smaller families means there will be fewer children in the population.
Since the last projections from NRS, fewer council areas are expected to see a drop in population by mid-2032. In its last report, 17 were projected to fall but the figures now show nine falling.
Earlier this year, NRS published national population projections showing Scotland's population rising to 5.7 million by mid-2032.
Background
The full publication with links to the data tables can be found on the NRS website.
Projections...
These projections are based on demographic trends up to mid-2022, and as new data become available, projections may diverge from official population estimates.
NRS has since published population estimates for mid-2023 and mid-2024. Projected figures for mid-2023 and mid-2024 will differ from the published population estimates for these years. For the most up-to-date data, users should therefore rely on the latest official mid-year population estimates for all available years.
The reliability of projections decreases over time, and projections tend to be less reliable in periods of rapid change. Projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations.
NRS is a non-ministerial government body which produces independent statistics.
The 2022-based National Population Projections can also be found on the NRS website.
