Scotland’s population is projected to grow to 5.8 million people by the middle of 2047 according to new statistics from National Records of Scotland.
The latest report shows that, based on recent trends, people moving to Scotland would continue to fuel population increase. Statisticians project a population increase of 4.4% in the ten years from the middle of 2022. The longer-range projection to 2047 is for a 6.2% increase. Without migration, Scotland’s population would fall as deaths are projected to continue to outnumber births.
NRS head of population and migration statistics Andrew White said:
“The country has an ageing population, and this is projected to continue. It is projected that there will be around one third of a million more people aged 75 and older by mid-2047, as the 1960s baby boom generation gets older.
“Our projections suggest that by the middle of 2047 people of working age will make up 64% of the population, just a little less than now. In the same time period, the number of young people aged 0 to 15 is projected to fall by 9% or almost 80,000 people. The number aged 16 to 29 is projected to fall by 6% or more than 57,000 people.”
The population of the UK as a whole is projected to grow more quickly. By mid-2047 it’s projected to be 76.6 million, up 13.2% on the 2022 figure. According to these figures Scotland’s share of the UK population could fall from 8.1% to 7.6% in the same time period.
The national population projections are produced on a consistent basis across the UK. They are commonly used for planning and providing public services, fiscal forecasting and developing policy for the future. They are based on past trends and assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. They are not intended as a forecast or prediction.
Background
You can find the Projected Population of Scotland (2022-based) on our website along with the data tables. There are no local authority breakdowns at this stage. Sub-national population projections will be published later in the year. You can keep track of upcoming populations on this page of our website.
Projections:
NRS statistics are produced by independent, professional statisticians.
National Records of Scotland (NRS) is a non-ministerial department of the Scottish Government. Our purpose is to collect, preserve and produce information about Scotland’s people and history, and make it available to inform current and future generations.
