List of tables
- Table Q1 - Births, stillbirths, deaths, marriages and civil partnerships, numbers and rates, Scotland, quarterly, 2013 to 2024
- Table Q2a - Estimated population, births, stillbirths, deaths, marriages and civil partnerships, numbers and rates, by Council area, Scotland, first quarter, 2024
- Table Q2b - Estimated population, births, stillbirths, deaths, marriages and civil partnerships, numbers and rates, by NHS Board area, Scotland, first quarter, 2024
- Table Q3a - Deaths, by sex, age and Council area, Scotland, first quarter, 2024
- Table Q3b - Deaths, by sex, age and NHS Board area, Scotland, first quarter, 2024
- Table Q4 - Deaths, by cause, Scotland, first quarter 20178-2024
- Table Q5 - Deaths by sex, age and cause, Scotland, first quarter, 2024
- Table Q6 - Deaths by sex, cause and NHS Board area, Scotland, first quarter, 2024
- Table Q7 - Deaths, expected and excess deaths by age group and sex, Scotland quarterly, 2011-2024
List of Figures
- Figure 1 - Deaths, expected deaths and excess deaths in Scotland, by quarter, 2011-2024
- Figure 2 - Excess deaths by age group and by quarter, 2013-2024
- Figure 3 - Births, deaths and marriages registered in rolling periods of four quarters, 1974-2024
The tables and charts above have been made available as Excel spreadsheets.
Main points
- There were 11,560 births registered in Scotland between 1 January and 31 March 2024. This is 4.6 per cent lower than the quarter one average of 12,119.
- There were 16,755 deaths in 2024 quarter one. This is 8.9 per cent lower than the expected number of deaths, which was 18,391.
- For all age groups, the number of deaths was lower than the expected number for quarter one of 2024. Female deaths were 813 (9%) lower than the expected number and male deaths were 822 (9%) lower than expected in the latest quarter.
- There were 38 stillbirths (3.3 per 1,000 live and still births) in quarter one of 2024. This is lower than the quarter one average of 47.
- There were 35 infant deaths, a rate of 3.0 per 1,000 live births, in the first quarter of 2024. This is lower than the quarter one average of 44.
- There were 3,205 marriages in quarter one of 2024. This was 8.3% higher than the recent average. Of these, 135 were same-sex marriages, compared with a five-year average of 113.
- Since June 2021 mixed-sex couples have been able to form a civil partnership. Of the 167 civil partnerships registered in the first quarter of 2024, 133 involved mixed-sex couples. There were 34 same-sex civil partnerships, compared with an average of 16.
Comparing against the expected number of deaths
Excess deaths is the difference between the observed number of deaths in a particular period and the number of deaths that would have been expected in that period, based on historical data. The expected number of deaths is estimated from age-specific mortality rates rather than death counts, so trends in population size and age structure are taken into account. This new method for calculating excess deaths has been adopted by statistical agencies across the UK. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the ONS website.
Comparing against the five year average
Comparisons for statistics other than deaths are usually made by comparing the current year to the average for the previous five years. For 2024, standard practice would be to compare against the 2019-2023 average.
As the 2020 figures were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic – marriages were much lower than usual and registration of births was delayed - comparing the 2024 figures to an average including 2020 would not give a true reflection of how the latest quarter’s figures compare to the average.
2024 comparisons have therefore been made against the 5 years 2018-2019 plus 2021-2023.
Introduction
This release presents provisional figures for vital events which were registered in Scotland in the period from 1 January to 31 March 2024, inclusive. The tables and charts provide statistics on births, stillbirths, marriages, civil partnerships and deaths, including:
- quarterly figures for Scotland back to 2013;
- the totals for each Local Authority and NHS Board area for the latest quarter; and
- more detailed analyses of the numbers of deaths (for example cross-classified by sex, cause and NHS Board area) for the latest quarter.
The quarterly tables can be downloaded from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
Births
There were 11,560 live birth registrations in 2024 quarter one. This total is 4.6% lower than the average for quarter one. We would usually use quarter one of the preceding five years as a comparison (2019-2023), but the registration of births was affected in 2020 by the closure of registration offices, due to COVID-19. Comparisons for 2024 have therefore been made against the 5 years 2018-2019 plus 2021-2023.
Expressed as a rate there were 8.5 live births per 1,000 population.
There were 38 stillbirths (3.3 per 1,000 live and still births) in the first quarter of 2024. This is lower than the quarter one average of 47.
Deaths
In the first quarter of 2024 there were 16,755 deaths. This 8.9 per cent lower than the expected number of deaths at 18,391.
Expressed as a rate, there were 12.4 deaths per 1,000 population.
Figure 1 illustrates the number of deaths registered each quarter since 2011, and shows the trend in expected deaths and excess deaths. For much of the last four years we have had excess deaths, with the highest quarterly excess deaths seen in 2020 quarter two.
In the three most recent quarters the number of deaths registered has been lower than the expected number of deaths.
A new method for calculating excess deaths has been adopted by statistical agencies across the UK. The new method of calculating expected and excess deaths takes into account trends in population size and age structure. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the ONS website.
Figure 1: Deaths, expected deaths and excess deaths in Scotland, by quarter
Excess deaths by sex and age group using the new methodology have been published for the first time. Figure 2 illustrates the number of excess deaths by age group in each quarter since 2013.
In all age groups, deaths have been below expected levels for the last three quarters. In quarter 1 of 2024 deaths among under 65s were 117 (4%) lower than expected, deaths in the 65-79 age group were 468 (8%) below expected and deaths for people aged 80 and over were 1,051 (11%) lower than expected levels. Female deaths were 813 (9%) below expected and male deaths were 822 (9%) lower than expected in the latest quarter.
Figure 2: Excess deaths in Scotland by age group, by quarter
In quarter one of 2024 there were:
- 4,174 deaths from cancer;
- 2,155 deaths from respiratory diseases;
- 1,785 deaths from coronary heart disease;
- 1,742 deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease;
- 1,005 deaths from cerebrovascular disease.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) was the underlying cause of 222 deaths during quarter one and there were no deaths where the underlying cause was adverse effects of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The infant death rate (deaths within the first year of life) was 3.0 deaths per 1,000 live births in the first quarter of 2024.
Marriages and civil partnerships
There were 3,205 marriages in quarter one of 2024. This was 8.3% higher than than the recent average. The number of marriages began to increase after the restrictions (which were first put in place in quarter 2 of 2020) were eased. Quarter three of 2021 was the first to return to pre-pandemic levels.
There were 135 same-sex marriages, compared with a five-year average of 113 for quarter one.
Since June 2021 mixed-sex couples have been able to form a civil partnership. Of the 167 civil partnerships registered in the first quarter of 2024, 133 involved mixed-sex couples. There were 34 same-sex civil partnerships.
Natural change (births minus deaths)
For the latest four quarter period (2023 Q2 to 2024 Q1) there were 45,845 births and 61,676 deaths, a shortfall of 15,831 births compared to deaths.
Having less births than deaths in a population is referred to as ‘negative natural change’, meaning that without external factors (such as migration) the population will fall. Scotland has been in a position of negative natural change since the period ending 2015 Q1. Prior to this, there was a sustained period of positive natural change (i.e. more births than deaths) going back to 2006. As can be seen from Figure 2, the gap between births and deaths has fluctuated over time and there have been several periods of both positive and negative natural change over the last 50 years.
Figure 3: Births, deaths and marriages registered in rolling periods of four quarters
Background to these statistics
This is a quarterly publication. NRS collects the underlying data on a daily basis, as and when each event is registered. The statistics for 2023 and 2024 are provisional and likely to be finalised in summer 2024 and summer 2025 respectively.
Information about the sources, methods, definitions and reliability of these statistics is available from the following NRS web site pages:
- general background information on Vital Events statistics
- background information on points which are specific to statistics about deaths.
Finalised Vital Events statistics for calendar years as a whole can be found in the Vital Events Reference Tables.
Notes on statistical publications
Accredited Official Statistics
These official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’.
In June 2024 The Office for Statistics Regulation introduced the new accredited official statistics badge, to denote official statistics that have been independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) and judged to meet the standards in the Code of Practice for Statistics. The new badge replaces the current National Statistics badge, though the meaning is the same. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.
The method used to calculate excess deaths was introduced in February 2024 and has been adopted by statistical agencies across the UK. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the ONS website. We will regularly review estimates produced by the new excess deaths methodology, with further refinements to the approach being undertaken if necessary. As such, estimates of excess deaths produced by the new methodology will be labelled as Official Statistics in Development while further review, testing and development work is undertaken.
It is National Records of Scotland’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected of accredited official statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Office for Statistics Regulation promptly. Accredited official statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored.
Information on background and source data
Further details on data source(s), timeframe of data and timeliness, continuity of data, accuracy can be found in the ‘About this Publication’ document that is published alongside this publication on the NRS website.
National Records of Scotland
We, the National Records of Scotland, are a non-ministerial department of the devolved Scottish Administration. Our purpose is to collect, preserve and produce information about Scotland's people and history and make it available to inform current and future generations. We do this as follows:
- Preserving the past – We look after Scotland’s national archives so that they are available for current and future generations, and we make available important information for family history.
- Recording the present – At our network of local offices, we register births, marriages, civil partnerships, deaths, divorces and adoptions in Scotland.
- Informing the future – We are responsible for the Census of Population in Scotland which we use, with other sources of information, to produce statistics on the population and households.
You can get other detailed statistics that we have produced from the Statistics section of our website. Scottish Census statistics are available on the Scotland’s Census website.
We also provide information about future publications on our website. If you would like us to tell you about future statistical publications, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat website.
You can also follow us on twitter @NatRecordsScot
