Contents
Main Points
- There were an estimated 244 deaths of people experiencing homelessness registered in Scotland in 2022. This is similar to the level in 2021. Homeless deaths are at a higher level now compared to 2017, when these statistics were first collected.
- City of Edinburgh, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Glasgow City and Stirling had the highest rates of homeless deaths per million population (aged 15-74) in 2022. Due to small numbers, the local authority level figures can fluctuate from year to year.
- 73% of homeless deaths were male and 27% were female.
- Almost half (49%) of homeless deaths were people aged under 45.
- Drug-misuse deaths of people experiencing homelessness fell in the past year from 127 to 89. Drug-misuse deaths accounted for over a third of all estimated homeless deaths in Scotland (89 deaths, 36% of the total number of deaths).
- Estimates of homeless deaths in other parts of the UK are not comparable with those for Scotland. An article, (jointly published by statistics producers across the UK) explains the reasons for this is more detail.
These statistics include people who were in temporary accommodation at the time of their death as well as those who were sleeping rough.
Introduction
This report provides official statistics in development on deaths of people experiencing homelessness in Scotland. Figures are provided for deaths registered in 2022, with breakdowns by sex and age-group, local authority and cause of death.
Official Statistics in Development are those that are undergoing development and will be tested with users. They have not yet been assessed against the rigorous quality standards of National Statistics. They will remain official statistics in development for a period of evaluation of their suitability and quality, and feedback is invited from users and stakeholders. When interpreting the statistics, users should be aware of their limitations and read the methodology section for details on how they have been developed.
Deaths of homeless people were identified from death registration records, and a statistical method called capture-recapture modelling was used to estimate the likely number of additional deaths which we were unable to identify as homeless using the information available. Figures in this report are shown for both identified deaths and estimated deaths. Refer to the methodology section for further explanation of the difference between the two figures.
Why do we use a model to estimate homeless deaths?
Homeless deaths are difficult to count and we know that we will miss some based on the sources of information we have. The model we use tries to account for and estimate how many we might have missed. For more details see the Limitations of these Statistics section.
Homeless deaths in Scotland
In 2022, there were an estimated 244 homeless deaths. This is at a similar level to the 2021 estimate.
Of the total 244 deaths estimated in 2022:
- 216 were identified from death registration records.
- The additional 28 deaths were estimated using the statistical model.
The 95% confidence interval around the estimated figure of 244 was +/- 16 meaning the true number of homeless deaths is likely to be within the range of 228 to 260. For comparison, estimated homeless deaths last year (2021) fell within the range 235 to 265.
Figure 1: Identified and estimated homeless deaths in Scotland, 2017-2022
Comparisons with UK countries
Estimates of homeless deaths in other parts of the UK are not comparable with those for Scotland.
An article exploring the different sources of data used to estimate homeless deaths across the UK has been jointly produced by NRS, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and the Government Statistical Service (GSS) Homelessness Coherence Team. This concluded that estimates were not produced on a comparable basis across the UK and that they should not be compared.
NRS engage regularly with local authorities in Scotland throughout the process of estimating homeless deaths. Data on temporary accommodation is collected directly from the local authorities and extensive data quality assurance is carried out in partnership. This methodology and process is likely to identify proportionately more homeless deaths than in other parts of the UK, hence why it is concluded that the estimates for Scotland are not comparable with those for the rest of the UK countries.
Improvements to methodology
The full methodology for this publication can be found on the NRS website.
In the last two years, in addition to the data we usually receive, we requested extra data from councils to allow us to investigate improvements to the accuracy of our estimates. As well as asking councils for their list of temporary accommodation addresses for us to match to our deaths database, we also asked for details of deaths of homeless people who were known to local authorities.
This new stream of data is currently being used as a quality assurance resource, to help us strengthen the confidence we have in each match identified across our five existing data sources. As we continue to improve the methodology, we will look to directly include this sixth source of homeless deaths in our estimation model. We will report on the impact on our estimates of including this additional data source in due course.
Limitations of these statistics
These statistics are official statistics in development and represent our best estimate of the number of deaths of people experiencing homelessness, but there are limitations which users should be aware of.
We rely on information which is provided to registrars by the informant when a death is registered. The informant is usually a family member or a friend, but in some cases the informant may be a police officer, a social worker, a funeral director or other person. In these cases, the informant may not have all of the information needed to determine whether the person was homeless at the time of their death. Even when the informant is a family member, they may not have been in touch with the deceased for some time and may be unaware of their circumstances, or they may not wish the fact that their relative was homeless to appear on the death certificate.
Although we have carried out multiple searches of our data sources to identify homeless people, there are a number of groups who we may have missed, or underestimated, in this process.
A small percentage of people present to their local authority as homeless but never take up an offer of homeless accommodation. They may be able to stay with friends or relatives until permanent accommodation is found for them. They are unlikely to be identified in the searches we have carried out.
A number of people who are sleeping rough may not present themselves as homeless to their local authority and are therefore not registered as homeless. If they die while sleeping rough, they may be picked up by our searches but only if the informant provides this information to the registrar when registering the death.
The capture recapture estimation technique we have used attempts to address this undercount, but the method used is known to produce conservative estimates - the actual number of homeless deaths may be higher.
Related statistics
Notes on statistical publications
Official statistics in development
The statistics in this publication are official statistics in development – formerly called experimental statistics. They are in the testing phase and are not yet fully developed. They have not yet been assessed against the rigorous quality standards of National Statistics.
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority (UKSA) designates statistics as National Statistics, in line with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics (available on the UKSA website). National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value.
All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the Authority’s regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate.
Information on background and source data
Further details on data source(s), timeframe of data and timeliness, continuity of data, accuracy, etc. can be found in the metadata that is published alongside this publication on the NRS website.
National Records of Scotland
We, the National Records of Scotland, are a non-ministerial department of the devolved Scottish Administration. Our aim is to provide relevant and reliable information, analysis and advice that meets the needs of government, business and the people of Scotland. We do this as follows:
Preserving the past – We look after Scotland’s national archives so that they are available for current and future generations, and we make available important information for family history.
Recording the present – At our network of local offices, we register births, marriages, civil partnerships, deaths, divorces and adoptions in Scotland.
Informing the future – We are responsible for the Census of Population in Scotland which we use, with other sources of information, to produce statistics on the population and households.
You can get other detailed statistics that we have produced from the Statistics section of our website. Scottish Census statistics are available on the Scotland’s Census website.
We also provide information about future publications on our website. If you would like us to tell you about future statistical publications, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat mailing system.
You can also follow us on twitter @NatRecordsScot
