Visual summary
The number of households in Scotland is projected to keep increasing
The number of households in Scotland is projected to grow by 6.7% in the 10 years from mid-2022 to mid-2032. By mid-2047, the number of households is projected to be 12.2% higher than in mid-2022.
Estimated and projected number of households in Scotland, mid-2002 to mid-2047
Main points
- Over the 10 years to mid-2032, the number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 167,700 (6.7%), from 2.52 million in 2022 to 2.68 million in 2032. Scotland’s population is projected to increase by 4.4% over the same period.
- The council areas that are projected to have the largest growth in the number of households between 2022 and 2032 are Midlothian (17.4%) and East Lothian (16.5%). City of Edinburgh (10.0%), Renfrewshire (9.8%), Perth & Kinross (9.6%) and Glasgow City (9.3%) are also projected to have relatively large increases.
- Inverclyde is projected to have a 1.0% decrease in the number of its households between 2022 and 2032. Relatively small increases are projected for West Dunbartonshire (0.1%), Dumfries and Galloway (1.5%), Na h-Eileanan Siar (1.7%) and North Ayrshire (1.7%).
- Growth in the number of households is fastest in older households. The number of households where the ‘household reference person’ (HRP) is someone aged 65 or over is projected to increase by 22.3% between 2022 and 2032 (to 908,800 households). The fastest percentage increase is in households with a HRP aged 85 years or over: they are projected to increase by 31.9% (to 135,000 households).
- Much of the projected growth in households between 2022 and 2032 is accounted for by one adult households (increasing by 9.1% to 1,018,000 households) and two adult households (increasing by 7.5% to 845,300 households).
- Households containing dependent children are projected to have a below average increase (4.7%) between 2022 and 2032, growing from 590,500 to 618,100.
- By 2032, it is projected that just over a fifth (20.9%) of the population aged 16 and over will be living alone. This proportion increases with age: it is over a third (34.8%) for those aged 65 years or over and more than a half (54.2%) for those aged 85 years or over.
What are household projections
This publication focuses on the results of projections of the number of households in Scotland over the 10-year period from mid-2022 to mid-2032. The results of projections for all years up to 2047 can be found in the detailed datasets on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
These are 2022-based projections and comparisons over time are therefore presented with 2022 as the base year. NRS has since published household estimates for mid-2023 and mid-2024; the projections for these years have been constrained to those estimates.
The results mainly relate to the ‘principal projection’: the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur. Information on some variant household projections prepared using alternative assumptions on the level of assumed migration in the underlying population projections are also provided towards the end of this report and in the published tables.
Uses and limitations
Household projections are mainly used for informing council decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). The projections feed into development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future. The projections are also used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information.
When making use of these projections it is helpful to know what they are and what they are not.
Projections…
More detail on the methodology and definitions used in these projections can be found in the Methodology Guide.
Scotland’s households: recent trend
There were an estimated 2.52 million households in Scotland in 2022. Compared with 2002 this represented an increase of 13.7%, or 303,700 households (Figure 1). The population of Scotland increased at a slower rate (7.5%) over this period.
Figure 1: Household numbers increased at a faster rate than the population in the 20 years to 2022
Trends in number of households and population, Scotland, 2002 to 2022
Source for population: National Records of Scotland Mid-Year Population Estimates
The growth in households was faster than the population growth mainly because people are increasingly living alone or in smaller households. These changes are partly due to the ageing population, as older people are more likely than younger people to live alone or with just one other person. One person households have been the most common type since around 2011.
Projected change in number of households
Between 2022 and 2032, the number of households in Scotland is projected to grow from 2.52 million to 2.68 million, an increase of 6.7% (Figure 2). This equates to an average of just under 17,000 additional households per year.
The corresponding percentage increases in household numbers between 2022 and 2032 in the latest available projections for other UK countries are 10.3% in England (2022-based), 7.2% in Wales (2022-based) and 5.6% in Northern Ireland (2016-based).
Over the entire 25-year projection period, the number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 12.2%, to 2.82 million in 2047.
The household projections are mainly affected by the projected trends in the Scottish population, which is projected to increase by 4.4% between 2022 and 2032. As noted before, growth in households is generally faster than growth in population due to factors including an ageing population (who are more likely to live alone or in smaller households).
Figure 2: Household numbers are projected to increase at a faster rate than the population in the 10 years to 2032
Projected percentage change in number of households and population, Scotland, 2022 to 2032
The average household size is projected to decrease from 2.12 people per household in 2022 to 2.07 people in 2032. This continues a long-term decline in average household size, although the rate of decrease has been slowing down in recent decades.
Projected change by council area
The number of households is projected to increase in almost every council area between 2022 and 2032 (Figure 3). The projected percentage change in the number of households between 2022 and 2032 are shown in Figure 4. Information on these percentage changes is also presented as a map (Figure 5).
Figure 3: Household numbers are projected to increase in nearly all council areas in the 10 years to 2032
Projected number of households, council areas, 2022 and 2032
This horzontal bar chart shows the projected number of households in each council areas for 2022 and 2032. The largest projected percentage increases in the number of households between 2022 and 2032 are in Midlothian (17.4%) and East Lothian (16.5%). Thje councils with the largest number of households are Glasgow City and City of Edinburgh.
The largest projected percentage increases in the number of households between 2022 and 2032 are in:
- Midlothian (17.4%)
- East Lothian (16.5%)
City of Edinburgh (10.5%), East Renfrewshire (9.8%), Perth & Kinross (9.6%) and Glasgow City (9.3%) are also projected to have relatively large increases.
In contrast, household numbers are projected to decrease by 1.1% in Inverclyde between 2022 and 2032, Increases of under 3% are projected in:
- West Dunbartonshire (0.2%)
- Na h-Eileanan Siar (1.7%)
- North Ayrshire (1.7%)
- Argyll and Bute (2.9%)
The changes in household numbers between 2022 and 2032 can be compared to the changes in the projected population for each council area over this period. The projected population changes range from a fall of 5.4% for Inverclyde to an increase of 14.7% for Midlothian. Although 9 council areas are projected to have a decline in their population over this period, only Inverclyde is also projected to experience a decline in household numbers.
Figure 4: The largest projected percentage increases in household numbers between 2022 and 2032 are in Midlothian and East Lothian
Projected percentage change in number of households and population, council areas, 2022 to 2032
Figure 5: Most of the council areas with the largest projected increases in household numbers between 2022 and 2032 are located in the central belt
Map of projected percentage change in number of households by council area, 2022 to 2032
This ia a map of the projected percentage change in number of households by council area from 2022 to 2032. one area is grey representing a decline in Inverclyde, while there are 9 council whose growth is above the Scottish average of 6.7%.
Projected change by age of household reference person
The projected change in the number of households between 2022 and 2032 by age of household reference person (HRP) is shown in Figure 6. The projected change in percentage terms is shown in Figure 7.
(The ‘household reference person’ (HRP) is a person chosen for statistical reasons by virtue of economic activity, age and/ or sex as the representative of a household. The 2022-based household projections define the HRP as the eldest economically active person in the household, then the eldest inactive person if there was no economically active person.)
The majority of the projected overall growth in household numbers between 2022 and 2032 is accounted for by growth in households with a HRP aged 65 years or over. This category is projected to increase by 22.3%, (to 908,800 households). The increases are particularly large in the oldest age groups. The number of households where the HRP is aged 75 to 84 years is projected to increase by 23.4% (to 328,800 households). The fastest growth rate is for households with a HRP aged 85 years or over with a projected increase of 31.9% (to 135,000 households).
Figure 6: Projected number of households in Scotland by age of household reference person (HRP), Scotland, 2022 and 2032
Figure 6 is a horizontal bar chart showing the number of households in 2022 and 2032. This is by age groups. The age group 55 to 64 has the largest number of households in both years. The biggest difference between the years occurs in the single adult households with a 9.1% difference. Three plus adult households, are projected to decrease by 2032 by 1.8%.
Figure 7: The projected growth rate in household numbers is highest for older households
Projected percentage change in number of households by age of household reference person (HRP), Scotland, 2022 to 2032
Projected percentage change in number of households by age of household reference person (HRP) between 2022 and 2032 is represted ad a horizonal bar chart. All age groups except 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 have a positive increase with the 85 and over age group having the bigges increase of 31.9%. 55 to 64 year olds have the biggest decrease of 10.6%.
These age patterns reflect the projected ageing population in the 2022-based subnational population projections. The latest population projections show that the number of people aged 65 years or over will increase by 22.2% between 2022 and 2032. For people aged 75 years or over the increase is 25.6%.
It is also evident that a projected decreasing population for certain age groups translates into fewer projected households. The number of households with a HRP aged 45 to 54 years is projected to fall by 2.0% (to 435,200 households) and the number with a HRP aged 55 to 64 years is projected to fall by 10.6% (to 452,800 households). Households with a HRP aged under 45 years are projected to increase by 7.9% (to 886,500 households).
Between 2022 and 2032, most council areas are projected to see increases of 20% or more in the number of households where the household reference person (HRP) is aged 75 years or over (Figure 8). The growth rate of such households is highest in Aberdeenshire (43.1%). A relatively low rate of growth is projected for Glasgow City (11.6%) and Dundee City (13.0%).
Figure 8: All council areas are projected to see an increase in older households
Projected percentage change in number of households with a household reference person (HRP) aged 75 years or over, council areas, 2022 to 2032
Projected percentage change in number of households with a household reference person (HRP) aged 75 years or over by council areas between 2022 and 2032 is represented by a horizontal bar chart. The growth rate of such households is highest in Aberdeenshire (43.1%). A relatively low rate of growth is projected for Glasgow City (11.6%) and Dundee City (13.0%).
Figure 9 shows the projected percentage of all households in 2032 where the HRP is aged 75 years or over. In general terms, this proportion tends to be highest in the more rural areas such as Argyll and Bute, Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders, and in some of the islands council areas. It is lowest in the more urban areas such as in the cities and in council areas in the central belt.
Figure 9: The cities and more urban council areas in the central belt are projected to have the lowest proportion of older households
Projected percentage of households with a household reference person (HRP) aged 75 years or over, council areas, 2032
Projected percentage of households with a household reference person (HRP) aged 75 years or over by council areas in 2032 is represented by a horizontal bar chart. The highest proportionsin the more rural areas such as Argyll and Bute, Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders, and in some of the islands council areas. It is lowest in the more urban areas such as in the cities and in council areas in the central belt.
Household type projections
The projected number of households by type of household in 2022 and 2032 are shown in Figure 10. The percentage changes between 2022 and 2032 are shown in Figure 11. Some household types are projected to increase more than others.
The largest projected increases between 2022 and 2032 (both in terms of numbers and percentages) are for households containing one or two adults only without dependent children. The number of one adult households is projected to increase by 9.1% (to 1,018,300 households); and the number of households consisting of just two adults is projected to increase by 7.5% (to 845,300 households).
Smaller increases are projected for households with dependent children. Households of two or more adults and dependent children are projected to increase by 4.3% (to 478,300 households), while households with just one adult and dependent children are projected to increase by 5.9% (to 138,700 households).
The only category projected to decrease is households of three or more adults, which is projected to fall by 1.8% (to 201,600 households).
Figure 10: Households with children account for under a quarter of all households
Projected number of households by type, Scotland, 2022 and 2032
Projected number of households by household type in Scotland in 2022 and 2032 is represented by a horizontal bar chart. The largest projected increases between 2022 and 2032 (both in terms of numbers and percentages) are for households containing one or two adults only without dependent children.
Figure 11: Increases in household numbers are projected for most types of household
Projected percentage change in number of households by type, Scotland, 2022 to 2032
Projected percentage change in number of households by household type in Scotland between 2022 and 2032 is represented by a vertical column chart. The largest projected increases between 2022 and 2032 (both in terms of numbers and percentages) are for households containing one or two adults only without dependent children (9.1% and 7.5%). Households of three or more adults, is projected to fall by 1.8%.
Figure 12 shows the projected distribution of households by type in council areas in 2032.
Figure 12: Projected percentage distribution of households by type, council areas, 2032
Projected distribution of households by type in council areas in 2032
Projected distribution of households by household type in council areas in 2032 is represented by a horizontal bar chart. One adult households is projectd to account for 38% of all households in Scotland. This ranges from 29.2% in Midlothian up to 43.5% in Glasgow City and 43.7% in Aberdeen City.
One adult households
Households consisting of just one adult are projected to account for 38.0% of all households by 2032 (up slightly from 37.1% in 2022). This proportion is projected to range from 29.2% in Midlothian up to 43.5% in Glasgow City and 43.7% in Aberdeen City.
In 2022, just over a fifth (20.5%) of the population aged 16 years or over lived alone. This is projected to rise slightly, to 20.9% in 2032.
This proportion of people living alone varies according to age and sex (Figure 13). People are more likely to live alone as they become older. Over a third (34.8%) of people aged 65 years or over are projected to live alone by 2032; for people aged 75 years or over this proportion is projected to be 43.1%. More than a half (54.2%) of people aged 85 years or over are projected to live alone in 2032.
Men are more likely to be living alone than women in all age groups up to 64 years old. However, in age groups from 65 years old onwards women are more likely to be living alone, and this likelihood increases with age. This pattern reflects women’s greater life expectancy, and also the tendency of women’s male partners to be older than them, which means that women are more likely to outlive them.
Figure 13: Older people are more likely than younger people to live alone
Projected percentage of people living alone by age and sex, Scotland, 2032
Projected percentage of people living alone by age and sex in Scotland in 2032 is represented by a vertical column bar chart. Over a third of people aged 65 years or over are projected to live alone by 2032 while people aged 75 years or over this proportion is projected to be 43.1%. , In age groups from 65 years old onwards women are more likely to be living alone than men, and this likelihood increases with age.
The proportion of people aged 75 years or over projected to be living alone in 2032 varies around a national average of 42.7%. It ranges from 39.8% in Midlothian up to 47.9% in Glasgow City, and is generally higher in the cities and the more urban council areas in the west of the central belt.
The substantial projected increase in the number of older households, in particular of older people living alone, has implications for services and policies aimed at supporting older people.
Households consisting of just two or more adults
The number of households consisting of just two or more adults is projected to rise by 5.6% between 2022 and 2032 (to 1,046,900 households). They are projected to account for 39.0% of all households in 2032, slightly lower than the 39.4% share in 2022.
The proportion of households consisting of just two or more adults in 2032 is projected to range from 31.5% in Aberdeen City to 43.0% in Aberdeenshire. It is projected to be generally lower in the cities and more urban council areas, and higher in more rural areas.
The increase between 2022 and 2032 in the number of households consisting of just two or more adults is mainly driven by a large increase in those where the household reference person (HRP) is aged 65 years or over: the number of such households is projected to increase by 21.4% (to 435,300 households). For households where the HRP is aged 75 years or over, the number is projected to increase by 25.4% (to 193,500 households). This reflects the projected increase in the population in these age groups.
There is a projected increase between 2022 and 2032 in the number of households consisting of just two or more adults in nearly all council areas (Figure 14). In percentage terms, the increase ranges from 0.9% in Dumfries and Galloway to 14.8% in East Lothian. Small decreases are projected in Inverclyde (down 1.9%) and West Dunbartonshire (down 0.3%).
Figure 14: Most council areas are projected to have increases in households consisting of just two or more adults
Projected percentage change in number of households consisting of just two or more adults, council areas, 2022 to 2032
Projected percentage change in number of households consisting of just two or more adults in council areas from 2022 to 2032 is represented by a horizontal bar chart. , The increase ranges from 0.9% in Dumfries and Galloway to 14.8% in East Lothian. Small decreases are projected in Inverclyde (down 1.9%) and West Dunbartonshire (down 0.3%).
Households with dependent children
The total number of households containing one or more dependent children is projected to grow from 590,000 in 2022 to 618,100 in 2032, an increase of 4.7%. The projected percentage increase for such households that have just one adult (up 5.9% to 139,700 households) is slightly higher than for those households with two or more adults (up 4.3% to 478,300 households).
Around half of council areas are projected to see an increase between 2022 and 2032 in the number of households containing dependent children (Figure 15). In percentage terms, increases of 10% or more are projected for Midlothian (21.0%), Glasgow City (14.6%), Renfrewshire (14.6%), East Lothian (13.5%), Dundee City (10.7%) and City of Edinburgh (10.4%). In the half of councils where a decrease is projected, the largest decreases are in Na h-Eileanan Siar (7.4%), Inverclyde (6.3%) and Argyll and Bute (5.7%).
Figure 15: Half of council areas are projected to see a decrease in the number of households with dependent children
Projected percentage change in number of households with dependent children, council areas, 2022 to 2032
Projected percentage change in number of households with dependent children in council areas from 2022 to 2032 is represented by a horizontal bar chart. Midlothian (21.0%), Glasgow City (14.6%), Renfrewshire (14.6%) and East Lothian (13.5%) have the higest percentage change. Na h-Eileanan Siar (7.4%), Inverclyde (6.3%) and Argyll and Bute (5.7%) have the highestest decreases.
By 2032, households with dependent children are projected to account for 23.0% of all households. The corresponding proportion in 2022 was slightly higher, at 23.5%.
In general, it is the council areas which are reasonably close to the main cities which have the highest projected percentages of households with dependent children (Figure 12). The figures are lower in the cities themselves, and in the more remote rural and island council areas. The proportion is projected to be highest in East Renfrewshire (31.0%), Midlothian (29.7%), West Lothian (27.3%), East Dunbartonshire (27.0%) and East Lothian (26.1%). It is projected to be lowest in Argyll and Bute (17.5%), Na h-Eileanan Siar (17.9%) and Dumfries and Galloway (19.6%).
Variant household projections
Unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this bulletin are from the main (principal) household projection. This is based on the principal population projection produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS), which uses assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration which are thought to be the most likely to occur over the next 25 years. However, we have also published a couple of variant projections. These are:
- a high international migration variant
- a low international migration variant
These variants provide an indication of the future number of households in Scotland under alternative assumptions on migration. They are useful for illustrating plausible alternative scenarios but are not intended to represent upper or lower limits for future demographic behaviour.
The variant projections are calculated by replacing the principal population projection with a variant migration population projection, keeping all other inputs to the household projections (communal establishment rates, headship rates and household estimates) unchanged.
The variant population projections use the same assumptions about fertility and mortality as the principal population projection but assume varied levels of migration to and from Scotland. A description of the migration assumptions can be found in 2022-based subnational population projections on the NRS website.
Detailed data tables for each variant, by council area, are available from the NRS website.
Figure 16 illustrates how the variant household projections compare with the principal projection. The principal projection shows the number of households in Scotland increasing from 2.52 million households in 2022 to 2.68 million households in 2032, an increase of 6.7%. This compares with a 5.4% increase (to 2.65 million households) for the low migration variant and a 7.7% increase (to 2.71 million households) for the high migration variant.
The use of low or high migration population projections has little effect on the projected type of households that the population is living in. The proportions of all households in each household type projected in 2032 are not markedly different in the variant projections compared with the principal projection. The same is true for the proportion of all households for each household reference person age group. The small differences in each variant household projection are due to differences in the age distribution of the underlying populations in each variant population projection, as different age groups tend to form different types of household.
More details are available in an interactive data visualisation of the 2022-based household projections showing the principal and variant projections for each council area.
Figure 16: Household numbers are projected to increase in all variant projections
Projected number of households, Scotland, 2022 to 2032: principal and variant projections
Note: y-axis scale does not start at zero.
Comparison with previous projections
The projected number of households in Scotland from the 2022-based projections compared with the previous (2018-based) projections are shown in Figure 17. The 2018-based principal projection suggested an average annual increase of a little under 10,000 additional households per year between 2022 and 2032, corresponding to an overall increase of 3.7% over the 10-year period. The latest (2022-based) projections show a faster rate of growth, suggesting an average annual increase of an additional 17,000 households over the period. This reflects higher population projections; further details on these are included the 2022-based subnational population projections.
Figure 17: The 2022-based household projections show a faster rate of growth compared with the 2018-based projections
Comparison of 2018-based and 2022-based household projections, Scotland, 2002 to 2032
Note: y-axis scale does not start at zero.
There are bigger relative changes between the 2018- and 2022-based household projections at council level, rather than for Scotland as a whole (Figure 18). In general, the 2022-based household projections for this year are higher in the majority of council areas; they are 2.0% higher for Scotland as a whole. However, they are lower for Falkirk, West Lothian, City of Edinburgh, West Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, Stirling and Moray. These differences reflect shifts in the underlying 2018-based and 2022-based population projections.
Figure 18: The 2022-based household projections for 2032 are higher than the 2018-based projections in the majority of council areas
Percentage difference between 2022-based and 2018-based household projections, council areas, 2032
Percentage difference between 2022-based and 2018-based household projections by council areas in 2032 are shown in a horizontal bar chart. This chart shows the 2022-based household projections for this year are higher in the majority of council areas; they are 2.0% higher for Scotland as a whole. However, they are lower for Falkirk, West Lothian, City of Edinburgh, West Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, Stirling and Moray.
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