Key Findings
- Projected population change varies across Scotland. Over half of Scotland’s councils (18 out of 32) are projected to increase by mid-2028. These are mostly urban areas, located in the central belt. The fastest growing areas are in the East surrounding the City of Edinburgh.
- Population decline is projected to mainly be in the West and South West of the country. More councils are projected to experience population decline than in previous projections (14 councils now, compared to 8 councils in the previous 2016-based projections).
- Migration continues to drive projected increases in population in most areas. By mid-2028, 30 council areas are projected to have more people arriving than leaving. Overall 18 councils are projected to increase in population, as natural decline (more deaths than births) exceeds net migration in some areas.
- In most areas, there is projected to be more deaths than births, contributing to population decline. Only five councils are projected to have natural population growth, with more births than deaths over the 10 years to mid-2028.
- Scotland’s population is projected to age, with the population of people aged 75 years and older projected to increase in all areas.
Sub-national population projections are produced for other countries in the UK:
National population projections can be found on the NRS website.
What are population projections?
This publication looks at the projected population of:
- Council areas
- NHS Boards
- Strategic Development Plan areas
- Scotland's National Park areas
This publication focuses on results over the next 10 years to mid-2028. Projections for the next 25 years to mid-2043 can be found in the detailed datasets on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
Projections are:
- statistics on the potential future size and age structure of Scotland's population
- based on past-trends and assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration
- uncertain, and a degree of uncertainty already exists in the base-year data
Projections are not:
- exact, as real population change will inevitably differ by some extent
- forecasts based on predictions about future political and economic changes
- as accurate for years in the distant future
How are projections calculated?
These projections for Scottish areas take the 2018 mid-year population estimates, covering the population at 30 June 2018, as their starting point. We then run through the following process for each year of the projection.
- Special populations (armed forces and prisoners) are removed
- The remaining population is aged on from the previous year
- Local fertility rates are applied to calculate the projected number of births
- Local mortality rates are applied to calculate the projected number of deaths
- The population is adjusted for migration into and out of each area
- Special populations are added back into the population.
More detail on the methodology used in these projections can be found in Section 6.
How are projections used?
The primary purpose of these projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as:
- Education
- Health and social care
- Land use
- Transport
How to find data
- The data used in this publication - All Data
- The figures used in this publication - All Charts
- Datasets by single year of age and sex - Detailed datasets
- Summary dataset for each area - Summary tables
- Open data - statistics.gov.scot
- Create your own projections charts - Interactive data visualisation
How is Scotland’s population projected to change?
Scotland's population has increased over the past 20 years, from 5.08 million in mid-1998 to the latest estimate of 5.44 million in mid-2018. The population in Scotland is projected to rise to 5.54 million over the next 10 years (Figure 1), an increase of 99,000 people (1.8%). However, population growth is projected to be slower than that seen in the last 10 years. There was a 4.5% increase in Scotland’s population between mid-2008 and mid-2018.
Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing but at a slower rate.
Figure 1: Estimated and projected population of Scotland, mid-1998 to mid-2028
Population projections for council areas
Over half of Scotland's council areas (18 out of 32) are projected to increase in population over the next 10 years (Figure 2). The highest increases are projected for:
- Midlothian (+13.8%)
- East Lothian (+7.2%)
- City of Edinburgh (+6.6%)
- East Renfrewshire (+6.4%)
18 council areas are projected to experience population increase by mid-2028.
However, not all of Scotland's council areas are projected to increase in population over the next 10 years. A total of 14 council areas (out of 32) are projected to experience a decrease in population over this period. Of these, 8 are projected to decline in population by more than 1%. The largest decreases are projected for:
- Na h-Eileanan Siar (-6.1%)
- Inverclyde (-6.1%)
- Argyll and Bute (-5.9%)
- North Ayrshire (-3.1%)
14 council areas are projected to experience population decrease by mid-2028.
Figure 2: Projected percentage change and number of people in population, by council area, mid-2018 to mid-2028
The council areas projected to decline in population are mainly in the West and South West of Scotland (Figure 3). The Highland and Island councils are projected to either decrease in population, or have an increase below the Scottish average. Areas which are projected to increase above the Scottish average include some of the cities - Edinburgh, Stirling, Glasgow - and their surrounding councils.
Figure 3: Projected percentage change in population, by council area, mid-2018 to mid-2028 (Map)
What causes population change?
Population change is driven by two main components: natural change and net migration. Natural change is the number of births minus the number of deaths. If there are more births than deaths, the population will grow. Net migration is the number of people moving into an area minus the number of people leaving an area. The population will also grow if there are more people moving into an area than leaving it.
Scotland’s population growth is driven by migration.
Natural Change = births – deaths
Net Migration = people moving in – people moving away
Migration is contributing to the projected increase in population in most council areas (Figure 4). Over the next 10 years to mid-2028, the highest increases caused by migration are in:
- Midlothian (+12.4%)
- East Lothian (+8.6%)
- East Renfrewshire (+7.7%)
Few councils are projected to see a population decline due to negative migration. Only two councils are projected to have more people leaving than arriving. These are:
- Inverclyde (-0.8%)
- Na h-Eileanan Siar (-0.2%)
Natural change is projected to be negative for most councils over the next 10 years (Figure 4). Only five councils are projected to have natural growth (more births than deaths). These are:
- Midlothian (1.4%)
- City of Edinburgh (+1.2%)
- West Lothian (+0.8%)
- Glasgow City (+0.2%)
- Aberdeen City (+0.1%)
27 Councils are projected to have more deaths than births.
Figure 4: Components1 of projected population change for council areas, mid-2018 to mid-2028
1 Some council areas are projected to have other small changes. These changes occur in special populations (such as armed forces or prisoners) or are due to small rounding adjustments to constrain to Scotland’s total population in the National Population Projections. More information on how this is calculated can be found in Section 6.
Where are people coming from and going to?
There are three types of migration:
- Internal – between council areas in Scotland
- Rest of UK – between Scotland and other UK countries
- International – between Scotland and overseas
Figure 5 shows projected population growth for each of the above migration flows.
International migration is projected to be the biggest driver of population increase for Scotland’s 4 main cities. Population growth in these cities from overseas migration, between mid-2018 and mid-2028, is projected to be:
- City of Edinburgh (+8.1%)
- Aberdeen City (+7.3%)
- Glasgow City (+6.3%)
- Dundee City (+3.0%)
All of these cities are projected to have negative net internal migration, with more people leaving the cities for other parts of Scotland than arriving from other councils:
- Aberdeen City (-7.8%)
- City of Edinburgh (-5.6%)
- Glasgow City (-4.9%)
- Dundee City (-2.7%)
Internal migration is projected to contribute to population growth in approximately two thirds (20 of 32) of Scottish councils over the next 10 years to mid-2028. The largest increase due to internal migration (more people moving into the area from other councils in Scotland), is projected to be in councils bordering the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow:
- Midlothian (+11.6%)
- East Renfrewshire (+8.5%)
- East Lothian and East Dunbartonshire (+6.9%)
Rest of UK migration is positive in nearly all council areas, with more people projected to arrive from the rest of UK than leave over the next 10 years. The councils with the highest projected increase due to migration from the rest of UK are:
- Orkney Islands (+6.8%)
- Argyll and Bute (+5.0%)
- Dumfries and Galloway (+4.9%)
- Shetland Islands (+4.2%)
Figure 5: Components of projected population change due to migration for council areas, mid-2018 to mid-2028
How is the age structure of the population projected to change?
Figure 6 shows the projected percentage change in population for each council area for children, people of working age, and people of pensionable age (The figures for working and pensionable age take into account the changes in the stage pension age as set out in the 2014 Pensions Act. Between 2019 and 2020, the pension age will rise from 63 to 65 years for both men and women. A further rise in pension age to 67 years will take place between 2026 and 2028).
Scotland’s population is projected to age with the number of pensioners growing in the majority of councils
People who are of pensionable age are projected to have the largest increase in population between mid-2018 and mid-2028. The largest increases are projected to be in:
- East Lothian (+10.9%)
- West Lothian (+9.9%)
- Midlothian (+8.9%)
Only 6 councils are projected to see a decrease in the number of people of pensionable age. The largest projected decreases are projected for:
- Dundee City (-3.8%)
- Argyll and Bute (-1.7%)
- Na h-Eileanan Siar (-1.2%)
Figure 7 shows the change in people aged 75 and over between mid-2018 to mid-2028. It is projected that all councils will see an increase in people in this age group. The scale of these increases is larger than any of the other age groups. The highest increase is projected to be in Clackmannanshire (+41.5%) and the lowest in Glasgow City (+4.3%).
Most council areas are projected to see an increase in their working age population over the next 10 years (Figure 6). The highest increases are projected in:
- Midlothian (+16.1%)
- City of Edinburgh (+8.6%)
- East Lothian (+8.6)
The number of children is projected to increase in 3 councils over the next 10 years (Figure 6). These are Midlothian (+11.2%), East Dunbartonshire (+4.5%) and East Renfrewshire (+2.0%). All other councils are projected to see a decrease in the number of children. The largest decreases are projected in:
- Argyll and Bute (-17.6%)
- Dumfries and Galloway (-14.2%)
- Inverclyde (-14.2%)
- Moray (-14.1%)
The number of children is projected to decrease in 29 councils over the next 10 years.
Figure 6: Projected percentage change in population by age structure, council area, mid-2018 to mid-2028
Figure 7: Projected percentage change in population aged 75 and over, by council area, mid-2018 to mid-2028
How is life expectancy projected to change?
Figure 8 shows the projected life expectancy for males and females in mid-2028 compared with the most recent life expectancy estimates (2016-2018). Life expectancy is projected to increase in all council areas for males and females.
Females born in 2027-2028 in Na h-Eileanan Siar are projected to live the longest. A baby girl born during this period could expect to live for 85.8 years. This is 6.6 years longer than a baby girl born at the same time in Glasgow City, the council with the lowest projected life expectancy (79.3 years).
Na h-Eileanan Siar and Orkney Islands are projected to have the highest increase in life expectancy for females between 2016-2018 and 2027-2028.
Males have a lower life expectancy than females in all council areas. This is projected to continue. A baby boy born in Orkney Islands in 2027-2028 could be expected to live to 83.8 years, the highest in Scotland. The lowest life expectancy for a boy born in the same period is projected to be in Glasgow City (74.4 years). This is a 9.4 year difference.
For males, Na h-Eileanan Siar and Perth and Kinross are projected to have the highest increase in life expectancy between 2016-2018 and 2027-2028.
Figure 8: Estimated1 and projected2 male and female life expectancy at birth for council areas, 2016-2018 and 2027-2028
1Estimated life expectancy for each area is a 3 year average covering the period 2016-2018.
2Projected life expectancy is calculated for a single year from mid-2027 to mid-2028.
How do these compare with previous projections?
There have been underlying demographic changes between 2016 and 2018, which have led to differences between the previous 2016-based projections and these latest 2018-based projections. Scotland’s fertility rate has fallen, improvements in life expectancy have stalled and net migration has decreased.
These changes explain why the estimate for Scotland’s total population in 2018 is not exactly the same as the projection in previous years. In mid-2018 there were 5.4 million people in Scotland, which is 11,000 (0.2%) lower than was projected by the 2016-based projections.
Figure 9 shows the difference between the latest and previous projections for each council area in mid-2028. The latest projections have projected that 14 councils will experience population decline by mid-2028. This is compared to 8 in the previous set of projections.
In the 2016-based projections, Shetland Islands, Clackmannanshire, Dundee City, Angus, Fife and Moray were projected to increase in population by mid-2028. However, in the latest set, they are now projected to decline.
What are some key differences between 2016 and 2018-based projections?
Similarities
- The population is still projected to grow
- Migration will still drive population growth
- The population is still projected to age
- Life expectancy is still projected to increase
Differences
- The projected rate of growth is now slower
- Natural change is now projected to be lower
- The growth in people aged 75 and over is now slower
- Slower improvements in life expectancy
Figure 9: Percentage difference between projected mid-2028 population using 2016-based and 2018-based projections by council area
Population projections for other areas
How is the population in NHS Board areas expected to change?
A total of 8 NHS Boards (out of 14) are projected to increase in population over the next 10 years (Figure 10). The largest projected increases are in:
- Lothian (+7.2%)
- Forth Valley (+3.1%)
- Greater Glasgow and Clyde (+2.2%)
Migration causes an increase in population in all NHS Board areas, except in Western Isles (Figure 10).
There is projected to be negative natural change in all but one NHS Board. Lothian is the only area where there is projected to be more births than deaths, contributing to population increase (Figure 10).
Figure 10: Projected components1 of population change, NHS Board areas, mid-2018 to mid-2028
1Some NHS Boards are projected to have other small changes. These changes occur in special populations (such as armed forces or prisoners) or are due to small rounding adjustments to constrain to Scotland’s total population in the National Population Projections. More information on how this is calculated can be found in Section 6.
How is the population in Strategic Development Plan areas projected to change?
There are four Strategic Development Plan (SDP) areas in Scotland. They are:
- Aberdeen (Aberdeen City and Shire)
- Glasgow (Clydeplan)
- Edinburgh (SESplan)
- Dundee (TAYplan)
As shown in Figure 11, the population is projected to increase over the next 10 years in:
- SESplan (+5.2%)
- Aberdeen City and Shire (+1.8%)
- Clydeplan (+1.8%)
The population is projected to decline slightly in TAYplan (-0.3%).
Figure 11: Estimated and projected population of Strategic Development Plan areas, mid-2002 to mid-2028
How is the population in National Parks projected to change?
National Parks are protected areas of countryside, wildlife and cultural heritage. There are two National Parks in Scotland: Cairngorms, and Loch Lomond and the Trossachs. Each is managed by a National Park Authority.
Figure 12 shows the projected population change over the next 10 years to mid-2028. In summary:
- The population of Cairngorms National Park is projected to increase by 3.3%
- The population of Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park is projected to decrease by 2.8%
Figure 12: Estimated and projected population of National Park areas, mid-2002 to mid-2028
Variant projections
Most of this report focuses on the principal (main) projection, however seven variant projections have been produced for Scottish areas:
- High Fertility (HF)
- Low Fertility (LF)
- High Life Expectancy (HE)
- Low Life Expectancy (LE)
- High Migration (HM)
- Low Migration (LM)
- Zero Outwith Migration (ZOM)
These variant projections are based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. They show what the future could look like, if these trends change. They are not upper or lower limits of future populations.
Figure 13 shows the projected population for Scotland in these different scenarios. Migration has a much bigger impact on the projected population than life expectancy or fertility. This is because there is more uncertainty in the migration assumptions.
Figure 13: Variant1 population projections, Scotland, mid-2018 to mid-2028
1Population projections are calculated for a principal (P) projection and seven variants: high fertility (HF), low fertility (LF), high life expectancy (HE), low life expectancy (LE), high migration (HM), low migration (LM) and zero outwith migration (ZOM)
Further data on the variant projections is available on the NRS website:
- Table 5 - Projected population (mid-2028 and mid-2043)
- Table 6 - Components of population change (mid-2018 to mid-2028)
- Table 10 - Assumptions for Variant Projections
- Interactive Data Visualisation - Interactive comparison of variant projections
Methodology
The 2018-based population projections for Scottish areas are based on the latest estimated population at 30 June 2018. Past trends of fertility, mortality and migration are analysed to project future births, deaths and migration. These projections are constrained to the 2018-based national population projections.
The population projections use the cohort-component method. This involves taking the starting population at the beginning of each year, then:
- Special populations (armed forces and prisoners) are removed
- The remaining population is aged on from the previous year
- Local fertility rates are applied to calculate the projected number of births
- Local mortality rates are applied to calculate the projected number of deaths
- The population is adjusted for migration into and out of each area
- Special populations are added back into the population.
More information on the method used to produce these projections is available in the methodology guide on the sub-national population projections section of the NRS website.
Base Population
The projections are based on the 2018 Mid-year Population Estimates. The population covered includes all persons usually resident in Scotland, whatever their nationality. Persons who come to or leave an area for less than 12 months are not included. Students are treated as being resident at their term-time address. Members of Her Majesty’s armed forces stationed in Scotland are included.
Special Populations
The population projections treat armed forces and prisoners as special populations. The age and sex structure of these populations remain fairly consistent over time and are atypical of the underlying population of an area.
An average of the special populations is calculated from estimates from the five years preceding the projections. The resulting number is removed at the start of each year and added back in at the end.
Fertility
In the projections, births are calculated by adjusting the Scottish fertility rate to take account of local variations observed in the five years preceding the projections. These local variations are known as local scaling factors. This adjusted fertility rate is then applied to women of child-bearing age (15 – 46 years).
In the 2018-based projections, the long-term fertility rate for Scotland is assumed to be 1.5 in the principal projection. Information on local fertility scaling factors can be found in Table 9 on the NRS website.
Mortality
Similarly to births, the number of deaths in each area are compared with the national trends. For deaths, this is done separately by sex for three age groups:
0 - 59, 60 – 79, and 80 and over. The local mortality scaling factors are calculated based on trends from the previous five years.
Information on local mortality scaling factors can be found in Table 9 on the NRS website.
Migration
Three types of migration are modelled separately by the projections:
- Internal – between council areas in Scotland
- Rest of UK – between Scotland and other UK countries
- International – between Scotland and overseas
Flows of in-migrants and out-migrants for each sex are modelled separately.
Internal and rest of UK migration are modelled in the same way. Trends in migration over the previous five years between Scottish areas and the rest of the UK are analysed. These are used to create a migration rate, which is then applied to the projected population for each area to calculate the number of in and out migrants. The sum of migration within Scotland and the rest of the UK is then made consistent with the Scotland-level figures from the National Population Projections.
International migration is projected differently. Each area’s overseas migration is projected separately. These figures are then used to proportionally distribute the overseas migration at Scotland level from the National Population Projections to each area. It is assumed that international migration numbers will reach a static level after 7 years.
Refugees and asylum seekers are modelled separately to other international migration. The number of refugees and asylum seekers are taken from the National Population Projections. Refugees are distributed to councils based on distribution numbers from the previous 3 years provided by the Home Office. It is assumed that all asylum seekers migrate to and from Glasgow City council based on previous trends.
Projected natural change and assumed net migration are not independent of each other. The projected numbers of future births and deaths are themselves partly dependent on the assumed level of net migration.
Strengths and limitations
It is important to have high quality statistics on the latest population (mid-year population estimates) and future projected population (national and sub-national population projections). The projections of future population are strongly influenced by the initial base population. NRS produces detailed annual estimates on the resident population of Scotland. These estimates are produced using a range of sources including administrative data. There are processes in place to check the suitability of these sources.
Quality assurance takes place throughout the process of producing population estimates and projections, with checks in place to ensure consistency and completeness of coverage. Comparisons are also made with the previous projections, taking account of changes in trends since the previous projections were published. More information about the quality assurance arrangements can be found on the population projects section of the NRS website.
It is important to consider the limitations when using population projections.
Population projections are trend-based and are not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. If recent political changes have not yet affected the population estimates or trend data the projections are based on, then they will not affect the projections. It should be remembered that new local planning policies are often intended to modify past trends, which can lead to the differences seen between projections.
Projections are cumulative, so the reliability of the projections decrease over time. Change will affect some populations more quickly than others, so they tend to be less reliable for smaller populations. For many areas, the migration assumptions are more volatile than fertility and mortality. This is due to the size of the migration flows.
Further information on the uses and limitations is available on the population projections section of the NRS website.
Future plans for projections
The National Population Projections and Population Projections for Scottish Areas are usually produced every two years. The timing of the next set of projections may change to take into account the time scales of the 2021 Census.
The Office for National Statistics has proposed that the next National Population Projections are based on the mid-2021 population estimates. Waiting until the 2021 Census data is available, would allow us to benefit from the revised base population it will provide. This means that the next set of projections will provisionally be:
- 2021-based National Population Projections by around the end of 2022
- 2021-based Population Projections for Scottish Areas by spring/summer 2023
This is not yet definitive and timings could be affected by the availability of required inputs. Another potential factor is the extent of the differences between the Census results and the current series of mid-year estimates.
NRS also produces household projections. The 2018-based household projections will be available in June 2020.
As well as national and subnational population projections, NRS have been supporting users interested in producing small area projections to inform planning and service delivery at a local level. More information on this can be found on the NRS website.
Links to related statistics
Sub-national population projections are available for constituent countries in the UK:
These projections are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology. A comparison document is available on the Office for National Statistics website outlining these differences.
National Population Projections for Scotland are available on the NRS website. National projections for the other constituent countries is available on the Office for National Statistics website.
Population estimates for Scotland as at mid-2018 are available on the NRS website. Estimates for mid-2019 will be released in April 2020. Population estimates for the UK are available on the Office for National Statistics Website.
Statistics for life expectancy in Scotland and Scottish Areas for 2016-2018 are also available on the NRS website.
The latest statistics on births and deaths in Scotland are available in the Vital Events section of the NRS website.
Migration statistics for Scotland and Scottish areas are also available on the NRS website, these are estimates of flow-based migration, as are the statistics used in this publication. Estimates of ‘migrant stocks’, the number of overseas nationals and people born overseas, can be found in our Population by Country of Birth and Nationality publication.
Notes on statistical publications
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority (UKSA) has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in line with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics (available on the UKSA website).
National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value.
All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the Authority’s regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate.
It is National Records of Scotland’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected of National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored.
Information on background and source data
Further details on data source(s), timeframe of data and timeliness, continuity of data, accuracy, etc can be found in the About this Publication document that is published alongside this publication on the NRS website.
National Records of Scotland
We, the National Records of Scotland, are a non-ministerial department of the devolved Scottish Administration. Our aim is to provide relevant and reliable information, analysis and advice that meets the needs of government, business and the people of Scotland. We do this as follows:
Preserving the past – We look after Scotland’s national archives so that they are available for current and future generations, and we make available important information for family history.
Recording the present – At our network of local offices, we register births, marriages, civil partnerships, deaths, divorces and adoptions in Scotland.
Informing the future – We are responsible for the Census of Population in Scotland which we use, with other sources of information, to produce statistics on the population and households.
You can get other detailed statistics that we have produced from the Statistics section of our website. Scottish Census statistics are available on the Scotland’s Census website.
We also provide information about future publications on our website. If you would like us to tell you about future statistical publications, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat website.
You can also follow us on twitter @NatRecordsScot
Datasets
On the NRS web archive you can access:
