Visual summary
Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing
Scotland’s population is projected to grow by 4.4% in the ten years from mid-2022 to mid-2032, and by 6.2% by mid-2047.
Estimated and projected population of Scotland (in millions)
Migration is projected to continue being the main driver of population growth
High levels of positive net migration are projected to offset negative natural change (births minus deaths), leading to Scotland’s population being projected to increase each year to mid-2047.
Estimated and projected components of population change
Scotland’s population is projected to age
The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around a third of a million people over the 25 years to mid-2047. Over the same period, the number of children and young adults is projected to fall.
Projected population change by age group, mid-2022 to mid-2047
Main points
- Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing. In the ten years from mid-2022 to mid-2032, the population is projected to increase by 4.4% to 5.7 million. In the 25 years from mid-2022 to mid-2047, it is projected to increase by 6.2% to 5.8 million.
- All of the projected population increase comes from inward migration to Scotland. The projections suggest Scotland’s population will not experience ‘natural growth’, as there are more deaths than births projected each year going forward.
- Scotland’s population is projected to age. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 341,300 over the 25 years to mid-2047. Meanwhile, the number of children (aged 0 to 15) and young adults (aged 16 to 29) are both projected to fall over the same period, by 79,900 and 57,300 respectively.
- While the number of working age people is projected to grow overall, the proportion of people who are of working age is projected to be slightly smaller in mid-2047 (64.4%) than in mid-2022 (64.7%). The proportion of the population of pensionable age is projected to increase from 18.9% in mid-2022 to 21.5% by mid-2047.
- The population of the UK as a whole is projected to grow at a faster rate than Scotland, to 72.5 million by mid-2032 (up by 7.3%) and to 76.6 million by mid-2047 (up by 13.2%). This would mean that Scotland’s share of the UK population could fall from 8.1% to 7.6% by mid-2047.
- These projections are higher than the last set of projections for Scotland. The main reason for this is higher migration figures, particularly for international migration, over the 25 years to mid-2047.
What are population projections?
Overview
This publication looks at the projected future population of Scotland over the 25 years to mid-2047. It presents the first set of projections to be based on Scotland’s Census 2022.
These are 2022-based projections, and comparisons over time are therefore presented with mid-2022 as the base year. National Records of Scotland (NRS) has since published population estimates for mid-2023, and these have been incorporated into the charts used in the report. Charts therefore label data as ‘projections’ from mid-2024 onward.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) prepares population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. The Scottish projections are prepared on behalf of NRS. The projections are based on mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. More information on the method and assumptions can be found in the 'Methodology and assumptions used' section of this publication.
Uses and limitations
The national population projections are produced on a consistent basis across the UK. They are commonly used for planning and providing public services, fiscal forecasting and developing policy for the future. When making use of these projections, it is helpful to know what they are and what they are not.
Projections…
How is Scotland’s population projected to change?
The population of Scotland is projected to increase
Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing. In the ten years from mid-2022 to mid-2032, the population is projected to increase by 4.4% to 5.7 million. In the 25 years from mid-2022 to mid-2047, it is projected to increase by 6.2% to 5.8 million (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Scotland’s population is projected to increase steadily over the next 25 years
Estimated and projected population of Scotland, mid-2007 to mid-2047
Scotland’s population has increased from 5.2 million in mid-2007 to 5.4 million in mid-2022, but annual population change has fluctuated over recent years (Figure 2). While Scotland’s population is projected to increase quite rapidly in the five years to mid-2027, with an average annual growth rate of 0.63%, annual population growth is then projected to slow until mid-2047 (falling to an increase of just 0.04% between mid-2046 and mid-2047).
Figure 2: Annual population growth is projected to slow
Estimated and projected annual population change for Scotland, mid-2007 to mid-2047
The focus of this report is on the 25-year period to mid-2047; however, with growth projected to slow each year, longer term projections suggest that natural decline in the population could outweigh levels of migration by mid-2051, leading to the population starting to fall. Population projections beyond mid-2047 can be found on the Office for National Statistics website .
Why is Scotland’s population changing?
Population change is driven by two main components, natural change and net migration:
- Natural change = the number of births minus the number of deaths
- Net migration = the number of people moving into an area minus the number of people leaving
Figure 3: All of the projected future growth in Scotland’s population is from positive net migration
Estimated and projected net migration and natural change, mid-2007 to mid-2047
Since 2015, there have been more deaths than births each year (Figure 4). The gap between births and deaths (natural change) is projected to widen over the next 25 years to mid-2047. This is because we have a growing population of older people, and people are having fewer children. However, positive net migration is projected to offset negative natural change over this period (Figure 3).
Figure 4: There have been more deaths than births each year since mid-2015, with the gap projected to increase by mid-2047
Estimated and projected births and deaths, mid-2007 to mid-2047
Where is migration to Scotland projected to come from?
Figure 5 shows that in recent years, both international and rest of the UK net migration have added to the population with more people coming to Scotland than leaving each year. This trend is projected to continue.
Figure 5: Over the 25 years to mid-2047, 70% of net migration is projected to come from outside of the UK
Estimated and projected net migration, mid-2007 to mid-2047
How is the age and sex structure of the population projected to change?
Age composition is one of the most important aspects of the population since changes in different age groups will have varied social and economic impacts. For example, increases in the population of older people are likely to place a greater demand on health and social services.
Figure 6: Scotland is projected to have more older people and fewer younger people in mid-2047 than in mid-2022
Estimated and projected population by age and sex, mid-2022 and mid-2047
The current (mid-2022) population structure includes a sharp peak at around age 75 (post-war baby boom), and a large bulge with people in their mid- to late-50s (born during the 1960s baby boom). As these baby boom generations age, with higher life expectancy than in previous generations, they are projected to make up a growing proportion of the population (Figure 6). The biggest change in age structure is seen among the oldest age groups. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around a third of a million people over the 25 years to mid-2047 (Figure 7).
Also, as female life expectancy is projected to remain higher than male life expectancy, more females are projected to live into older age (Figure 6).
Figure 7: The largest increase in population over the 25 years to mid-2047 is projected to be in the 75 and over age group
Projected population change by age group, mid-2022 to mid-2047
The projections also indicate that the number of children in Scotland in mid-2047 is expected to be lower than current levels. The total fertility rate is projected to decrease to 1.26 by mid-2032; however, this is then projected to increase back up to the mid-2022 level of 1.29 by mid-2047. In these projections, ‘fertility’ means the total number of children a woman would have, on average, at the end of her childbearing years.
The number of young adults aged 16 to 29 years is also projected to decrease over the 25 years to mid-2047 (Figure 7).
How are the number of working and pensionable age people projected to change?
The proportion of the population of working age is projected to increase to 65.4% between mid-2022 and mid-2027 (Figure 8). This is due to planned increases to the state pension age and could also be affected by relatively high levels of migration. However, the working age population is then projected to decrease again, until it sees a slight increase by mid-2047 following the state pension increase to age 68 in 2046 for both men and women.
By mid-2042, the proportion of the population of pensionable age is projected to have increased to 22.8%. Due to increases in state pension age, the proportion is then projected to decrease slightly to 21.5% by mid-2047 (Figure 8).
Figure 8: The working age population accounted for 64.7% of all people living in Scotland in mid-2022, but this is projected to decline to 64.4% by mid-2047
Estimated and projected population by age group, mid-2002 to mid-2047
How is life expectancy projected to change in the future?
These projections are based on the assumption that life expectancy will increase from current levels (Figure 9), and the gap between life expectancy for males and females will decrease slightly.
By mid-2047, life expectancy at birth is projected to have increased to 83.7 years for females and to 80.1 years for males.
Figure 9: Life expectancy is projected to increase over the next 25 years
Estimated and projected life expectancy by sex, 2005-2007 to mid-2047
Comparisons with the United Kingdom
The UK population is projected to increase from 67.6 million in mid-2022 to 72.5 million in mid-2032, up by 7.3% in the first ten years of the projections. It is then projected to increase to 76.6 million in mid-2047, an increase of 13.2% over the 25-year period.
Scotland’s projected population growth is slower than that of the UK (Figure 10), growing by 6.2% between mid-2022 and mid-2047. The growth in the UK population is driven largely by England and Wales, which are projected to grow by 14.5% and 10.3%, respectively, over the same period. Northern Ireland has the slowest projected growth, at 1.1% over the 25 years to mid-2047.
Figure 10: All UK constituent countries are projected to grow over the next 25 years
Projected population change in constituent countries, mid-2022 to mid-2047
Scotland’s population made up 8.1% of the total UK population in mid-2022, but this share is projected to decrease due to projected growth rates being slower in Scotland. By mid-2032, Scotland’s population is projected to make up 7.8% of the UK population, and by mid-2047 around 7.6%.
Changes by age group
All areas of the UK are projected to see increases in the number of people of pensionable age and decreases to the number of children between mid-2022 and mid-2047 (Figure 11).
Figure 11: The number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase across all areas of the UK
Projected population change by age group across the UK, mid-2022 to mid-2047
Comparing Scotland’s projected trends to the UK as a whole, and the other constituent countries, between mid-2022 and mid-2047:
- the number of children in Scotland is projected to decrease at a faster rate than for the UK as a whole, but at a slower rate compared to the last set of projections.
- the working age population in Scotland is projected to increase, but at a slower rate than the UK as a whole.
- the number of people of pension age in Scotland is projected to increase, but at a slower rate than for the UK as a whole. Northern Ireland is projected to have the highest percentage increase in people of pensionable age.
Components of population change
The factors driving population change are projected to be the same across the UK; however, levels are projected to vary between constituent countries. Between mid-2022 and mid-2047, all population increase across the UK is projected to be due to positive net migration, with natural change projected to be negative for each constituent country (Figure 12).
In the 25 years to mid-2047, Scotland’s population is projected to:
- increase by 15.7% due to migration (second highest across the UK); but
- decrease by 9.5% due to natural change (largest negative percentage change).
This leads to a projected total population change of +6.2% for Scotland over the 25 years to mid-2047.
Figure 12: All UK countries are projected to have positive net migration, and negative natural change over the 25 years to mid-2047
Projected percentage change from components of population change, UK, mid-2022 to mid-2047
Variant projections
As well as the principal population projections, a number of variant projections are also available. These are based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. The variants are useful for illustrating plausible alternative scenarios and are not intended to represent upper or lower limits for future demographic behaviour. These projections are simply scenarios (the outcome of a given set of assumptions), and not forecasts of the most likely course of future events.
Figure 13 details how the population could change under different variant assumptions.
Figure 13: Most variants indicate scenarios in which Scotland’s population is projected to increase by mid-2047 compared to mid-2022
Scotland’s population with variant assumptions, mid-2012 to mid-2047
Only the ‘low population’ (LP) variant shown in Figure 13 indicates a scenario in which Scotland’s population may be lower by mid-2047 compared to mid-2022. This variant assumes lower levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration than are assumed for the principal projection.
Other variant projections are available on the NRS website, and in our interactive data visualisation. These include special case scenarios such as zero net migration, no long-term life expectancy improvement, replacement fertility, old age structure and young age structure.
Comparisons with previous projections
The last set of projections were based on the mid-year population estimates for 2020. Previous projections were based on the mid-2018 and mid-2016 population estimates. All of these were rolled forward from Scotland’s Census 2011, whereas this set of 2022-based projections is the first to be based on Scotland’s Census 2022. This also includes the rebased time series for mid-2012 to mid-2021 following the release of 2022 census data.
A higher population is projected by the 2022-based projections compared with the previous three sets of projections by the end of the 25-year period (Figure 14). This is likely due to higher projected net migration over this period, following increases in long-term international migration in recent years.
Figure 14: The 2022-based projections are the first to be based on Scotland’s Census 2022
Comparison of 2022-based population projections with previous projections
Comparisons with the rest of Europe
Scotland’s projected population increase of 6.2% between mid-2022 and mid-2047 is similar to levels projected for Austria (5.8%), Spain (6.6%) and the Netherlands (6.6%; Figure 15).
Statistics for non-UK countries are published by Eurostat, and are not directly comparable to the ONS projections for UK countries. The Eurostat projections are based on estimates of the population at 1 January, while the ONS projections are based on estimates of the population at 30 June (mid-year). The methodologies in determining the underlying fertility, mortality and migration assumptions may also differ.
Figure 15: Scotland’s projected population increase of 6.2% is above the average projected change for all EU27 member states (0.6%)
Projected population change across Europe, 2022-2047
Background
Methodology
The 2022-based national population projections are based on the estimated population at 30 June 2022 and a set of demographic assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration based on analysis of past trends and expert advice. Given the uncertainty in demographic behaviour, additional variant projections are also produced. These variants are produced in the same way as the principal projection but use alternative plausible assumptions.
The assumptions underlying the 2022-based national population projections are compared with those used for the ‘2020-based interim national population projections: year ending June 2022 estimated international migration variant’
in Table 1. This release supersedes the 2020-based projections and accompanying variants.
The national population projections are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of National Records of Scotland (NRS). This ensures that the projections for Scotland are consistent and comparable with those for the other constituent countries of the United Kingdom.
More information on the method used to produce these projections is available from the National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report on the ONS Website.
State Pension age
In this report, working age and pensionable age populations are based on State Pension age (SPA) for the given year. Women's SPA increased to 65 between April 2016 and November 2018. From December 2018, the SPA for both men and women increased to reach 66 by October 2020 (Pensions Act 2011). Between 2026 and 2027 SPA will increase to 67 years for both sexes (Pensions Act 2014). SPA will increase to 68 years for both men and women between by 2046 (Pensions Act 2007).
Assumptions for the principal projections
The assumptions used for Scotland and the UK in the principal (main) projections are shown below in Table 1. For comparison, the assumptions from the 2020-based projections’ international migration variant are also provided. This variant was chosen for comparison as users were advised to use this variant as the main projections once published. In this variant, only the international migration assumptions changed, assumptions for fertility and mortality remained the same from the principal 2020-based interim projections.
Table 1: Assumptions for the 2022-based principal projections and 2020-based projections’ international migration variant, Scotland and the UK
Fertility
In the projections, ‘fertility’ is taken to mean the total number of children a woman would have, on average, at the end of her child-bearing years. It is sometimes expressed as ‘completed family size’. The long-term total fertility rate for Scotland is assumed to be 1.29.
Mortality
The 2022-based mortality assumptions were based upon analysis of past rates and annual percentage changes in mortality rates by age and year. For the 2022-based projections, the principal annual rate of mortality improvement was set at 1.1%. This is slightly lower than the rate used in the previous set of projections (1.2%).
Migration
Migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is calculated using a rates-based model based on trends in migration between the constituent countries of the UK over the last five years. Long-term international net migration is calculated using a 10-year average of migration trends (2014-2023).
More details about the methodology and the decision making process behind the national population projections can be found on the ONS website.
Assumptions for variant projections
The assumptions for the principal projection and the selected variants (in Figure 13) are shown in Table 2 below. The assumptions for the long-term total fertility rate vary from a low of 1.09 to a high of 1.49. For life expectancy, the differing mortality assumptions result in a range of 82.9 years to 84.3 years for females in mid-2047, and 79.1 years to 80.7 years for males in mid-2047. The low and high assumptions for net international migration vary from 7,000 to 29,000 in mid-2047.
Table 2: Long-term assumptions for variant population projections
Strengths and limitations
Population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.
The reliability of projections decreases over time, and projections tend to be less reliable in periods of rapid change. Projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations. Projections of the number of adults (particularly older people) are usually more reliable than those for children because they are based on people who are already living in Scotland. Migration tends to fluctuate more than fertility or mortality, and it is harder to measure, so there tends to be more uncertainty around the migration figures.
Population projections for other areas
NRS also publish projections for other areas including:
- Population Projections for Scottish Areas - the 2022-based projections for Scottish areas are planned for publication in summer 2025. This breaks down the national projections from this publication to council areas, health board areas, and other special areas.
- Household projections - the 2022-based household projections for Scotland are planned for publication in September 2025.
Population projections for the UK and its constituent countries are available from the ONS website.
Information about our statistics
These statistics are designated as Accredited Official Statistics. More information about Official Statistics can be found on the statistics governance and consultation page.
We also provide information about upcoming publications on our website.
If you would like receive updates on our statistics, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat website.
