Rebasing population estimates
Each year, National Records of Scotland (NRS) produces mid-year population estimates and small area population estimates (SAPE) for Scotland. These are based on the most recent census and are updated with current data on births, deaths and migration. Over the years between censuses, these rolled-forward estimates can ‘drift’ away from the true population. This is expected and it is standard practice to rebase our estimates accordingly once a new census has been held.
Following Scotland’s Census 2022, rebased population estimates for 2011 to 2021 were produced for Scotland, its council areas and health board areas. These were first published in July 2024 and later revised in January 2025.
Rebasing small area population estimates
Following the rebasing of population estimates for Scotland and its administrative areas the next step is to rebase the SAPE. These are produced to be consistent with the rebased council area and health board estimates.
A full set of rebased small area population estimates are now being prepared and will be published in autumn 2025. These will be based on the new 2022 data zone boundaries.
Rebased small area population estimates based on 2011 data zones
In the meantime, to meet the needs of users, we have released these rebased figures based on 2011 data zones, accessible via the File downloads section at the bottom of this page. They will allow users to perform analysis, such as calculating revised rates, in cases where the data they have available is based on 2011 data zones rather than on 2022 data zones. For example, the latest Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) currently available is based on 2011 data zones and so users who wish to publish revised rates based on the SIMD can do so using these data.
The rebasing exercise is time consuming and so it has not been possible for us to apply our usual methodology in full for the 2011 data zone-based figures. Instead, we have used a quicker and simpler approach to produce these estimates. Further information on the approach taken to calculating these figures can be found in the methodology paper.
Our view is that these statistics are of good quality and are appropriate for use as described above. However, some of the steps in our usual approach to rebasing have been excluded and as a result it has not been possible to quality assure the figures as thoroughly as would have been the case had the full methodology been used. When the rebased figures using 2022 data zones are released in the autumn these will represent the most accurate figures available and will be the most appropriate figures to use in most cases.
Population estimates for other geographies
These data zone populations can be aggregated to provide estimates of populations for other geographies. For SIMD 2020 ranks, deciles etc. a lookup is available from the Scottish Government website. For other geographies, a best fit data zone lookup is available from statistics.gov.scot.
