Key Points
- Scotland’s population is ageing. We now have a lot more people aged 65 and over than people under 15.
- The total fertility rate is now at the lowest recorded level which is one of the lowest in Europe.
- Migration from the rest of the UK and internationally means we have more people in younger age groups than we otherwise would.
- Our most common causes of death have been changing. For example, fewer people are dying from coronary heart disease and cancer. At the same time, more people are now dying from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease.
Foreword
“I am pleased to introduce Scotland’s Population 2023. Since 1855 we have delivered this overview of our statistics on the population of Scotland. The focus of this year’s report is on the ageing population and its causes and impacts.
This year we have published a series of topic data reports from Scotland’s Census 2022 which have provided new and unique insights into the characteristics of Scotland’s people. These included information on ethnicity, religion, the labour market, education and housing. For the first time, it also included data on armed forces veterans, sexual orientation and trans status or history. These results capture how Scotland and our communities are changing, and are vital for planning services such as health, education and transport.
We have now started to open up the census data via our new Flexible Table Builder. This allows people to explore the rich data from the census in more detail. Users can combine multiple census variables from across topics. And this will provide a range of new insights.
For example, we know migration means we have more people in younger age groups than we otherwise would. New data released via the Flexible Table Builder shows that over half of people aged between 20 and 39, who were born outside the UK, had a degree or above (59.1%) and 29.5% were students.
We will publish further multivariate census data in 2025, which will combine multiple topic variables at all geographies down to output area.
Our data shows how the population is changing, and the opportunities and challenges facing modern Scotland. This includes evidence on key issues such as: our ageing population, the impact of migration, and local population differences.
I am immensely proud of the work of my colleagues as they innovate and develop our key statistical products. These statistics play a vital role in supporting key policy and funding decisions, and informing broader public debate.”
Alison Byrne, Registrar General, National Records of Scotland
Scotland’s population is ageing
“We now have a lot more people aged 65 and over than people under 15.
“These changes will profoundly impact public services like schools, health and social care.”
Jon Wroth-Smith, Director of Census Statistics, National Records of Scotland
Scotland’s population is getting older. There are now over one million people aged 65 and over in Scotland (20.1%). This is over a quarter of a million higher than the number of people under 15.
The number of people aged 65 and over has increased in other UK countries too.
Figure 1: Scotland’s population is ageing
Age groups as a proportion of Scotland’s population, 1971 - 2022, Scotland
Source: Scotland’s Census - Rounded population estimates
Why is Scotland’s population ageing?
“The reason for Scotland’s ageing population is that the baby boom generation is larger than the generations that followed it, and as they get older it increases the numbers in the older age groups. Also, younger generations are having fewer children.
“For many decades, people in Scotland could expect to live longer than their parents or grandparents, though the pattern has changed over the last decade.
“The total fertility rate is now at the lowest recorded level, which is among the lowest in Europe. For the last nine consecutive years, there have been more deaths than births registered in Scotland.
“Migration of younger people into Scotland has helped to increase the number of younger people to some extent, but the population is still ageing.”
Andrew White, Head of Population and Migration Statistics, National Records of Scotland
Scotland’s population age structure is shifting towards older ages
Scotland’s age structure is shifting towards older ages. People born in the post-war and 1960’s baby booms are getting older. The chart below shows the population by five-year age groups and sex. The female population is shown on the left with males on the right. The bars show population data from the 2022 census. The outline drawn over the bars shows the population data from the 1921 census.
Figure 2: The structure of Scotland’s population is changing
Population by age group and sex, 1921 - 2022, Scotland
Source: Scotland’s Census 2022 - Rounded population estimates
We can see that the 2022 age structure is much narrower at the bottom and wider at the top. This shows how Scotland’s age structure has changed over time. Scotland had fewer young people and more older people by 2022.
There are more females than males overall and particularly in the older age groups. This reflects the fact that females live longer on average.
Source: Scotland’s Census 2022 - Rounded population estimates
Fertility rates are falling
Women in Scotland are now expected to have an average of 1.3 children – the lowest total fertility rate ever. For a population to replace itself this figure would need to be around 2.1.
Scotland’s fertility rate is lower than other parts of the UK, and lower than many European countries.
In Scotland, the total fertility rate is lowest in the cities. Fertility rates were highest in the most deprived areas and lowest in the least deprived areas.
Source : Vital events reference tables (including births, deaths, and marriages)
People are living longer
Life expectancy has improved over the last 40 years, and people are now living longer. However, after 2012-2014 life expectancy began to stall. This was due to a combination of the slowing down of improvements to mortality caused by circulatory disease and increased mortality from other causes of death, in particular drug-related deaths and those from dementia and Alzheimer’s.
More recently, in the early 2020s, there was a fall in life expectancy mainly due to COVID-19, but other factors, such as increased mortality from circulatory diseases also contributed.
Some causes of death have seen improvements over recent years particularly respiratory disease, cancers, and dementia and Alzheimer’s. COVID-19 has continued to have a negative effect on life expectancy.
Source: Life Expectancy in Scotland (NRS)
Impact of migration
So while Scotland’s population is ageing, migration from the rest of the UK and internationally means we have more people in younger age groups than we otherwise would. This is offsetting the higher numbers in older age groups to some extent, resulting in a slightly flatter age distribution.
Census data released in November 2024 allows to look into this in more detail. In 2022, over half of people aged between 20 and 39, who were born outside the UK, had a degree or above (59.1%) and 29.5% were students. You can explore detailed census data like this using our Flexible Table Builder.
Figure 3: The population is ageing and without migration we would have fewer people in younger age groups
Number of people by country of birth and age, Scotland
Source: Scotland’s Census - Ethnic group, national identity, language and religion
Find out more
What is the impact of an ageing population?
“Our most common causes of death have been changing.
“For example, fewer people are dying from coronary heart disease and cancer at younger ages. At the same time, more people are now dying from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease.”
Beth Watson, Statistician, Vital Events, National Records of Scotland
Common causes of death are changing
Fewer people are dying from coronary heart disease and cancer at younger ages. Some explanations for this may include:
- Improvements in: regular screening, early detection and treatment
- Changes in lifestyle, such as: reductions in smoking
Figure 4: More people are now dying from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease
Age-standardised rate of mortality (per 100,000 population) for Scotland
Source: Age standardised death rates (NRS)
With fewer people dying of coronary heart disease and cancer at younger ages, more people live to older ages. Deaths from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease are more common at those older ages.
Females make up around two thirds of these Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease deaths. This is because there are more females than males in the oldest age group.
Figure 5: Deaths from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease are more common in older age groups
Numbers of deaths by cause and age group, 2023
Source: Vital events reference tables (including births, deaths, and marriages)
Find out more
Health in an ageing population
There is a strong link between age and general health. In a population with more older people, you would expect worse health. Scotland’s Census asked “How is your health in general?”. The figure below shows how the percentage of people reporting bad or very bad health increases as we move up through the age groups.
Figure 6 also shows that there were small increases in the percentage of people reporting bad or very bad health in most age groups. This means the overall increase in the percentage of people reporting bad or very bad health is not entirely due to the higher number of older people compared to 2011.
Figure 6: The percentage of people reporting bad or very bad health increases with age
Percentage of people who reported bad or very bad health by age, 2011 - 2022, Scotland
We should take the strong link between age and health into account when making comparisons between populations. Especially when comparing populations with different sizes and age profiles such as council areas in Scotland.
Source: Scotland’s Census 2022 - Health, disability and unpaid care
Differences at local level
Overall, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in Scotland was 20.1%. At a local level this varied from 14.0% in Glasgow City to 27.2% in Argyll and Bute.
The areas with the largest proportion of people aged 65 and over tend to be in the west or south of Scotland. The four largest cities in Scotland were amongst the areas with the lowest proportions of people aged 65 and over.
Figure 7: The percentage in older age groups varies across council areas
The 65 and over age group as a proportion of the population, 2022, council areas in Scotland
Source: Scotland’s Census 2022 - Rounded population estimates
Since 2011, most of the council areas in the Central Belt saw increases in their populations, particularly those around Edinburgh. These increases were driven by migration from within Scotland and from elsewhere.
Most of the council areas that saw a decrease in population are in the west or south west. These decreases were driven by a higher number of deaths than births between censuses.
A common misinterpretation of these trends is that large numbers of people are moving from the west or south west to the east. In reality, when people move within Scotland, they tend to move to neighbouring areas. For example, people often move from a city to a nearby council area.
In contrast, people who move to Scotland from another country are more likely to move to cities. This is often to pursue work or study opportunities. Cities have the most young adults, the areas near cities have more families, and areas further away tend to have the oldest populations.
Figure 8: Population decreases were concentrated in the west and south west
Population change, 2011 - 2022, council areas in Scotland
Source: Scotland’s Census 2022 - Rounded population estimates
Households
Older people are more likely to live alone. Women are particularly impacted by this because they tend to live longer. Census data released in November 2024 allows to look into this in more detail. For people over 65 living alone, 23.4% reported that they were divorced and 55.5% reported being widowed. You can explore detailed census data like this using our Flexible Table Builder.
The west and south of Scotland areas had more older people living alone relative to their overall population.
Figure 9: Council areas in the west and south of Scotland had more older people living alone relative to their overall population
Percentage of population aged 55+ and living alone, 2022, council areas in Scotland
Source: Scotland’s Census - Demography and migration
Older people are also more likely to own their home outright. The number of people owning their home outright has increased. Census data released in November 2024 allows to look into this in more detail. In 2022, people aged 65 and over who lived alone were less likely to own their home outright (59.6%) than those not living alone (76.8%). You can explore detailed census data like this using our Flexible Table Builder.
Find out more
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