Visual summary
Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing
Scotland’s population is projected to grow by 4.4% in the 10 years from mid-2022 to mid-2032.
Estimated and projected population of Scotland (in millions), mid-2022 to mid-2032
Main points
- Projected population change varies across Scotland. Most of Scotland’s council areas (23 out of 32) are projected to increase in population by mid-2032.
- Midlothian is projected to see the largest increase in population (+14.7%), while Inverclyde is projected to see the largest decrease (-5.4%) in the 10 years to mid-2032.
- Over the 10 years to mid-2032, fewer council areas are projected to experience population decline than in the previous set of projections (nine council areas now, compared to 17 in the 2018-based projections).
- Net migration is projected to continue being the main driver of population growth, with all 32 council areas projected to have positive net migration over the 10 years to mid-2032.
- There are projected to be more deaths than births in most council areas, with the exceptions of City of Edinburgh and Midlothian.
- Scotland’s population is projected to continue to age, with the number of people of pensionable age projected to increase in all 32 council areas over the 10 years to mid-2032. With the exception of Midlothian, all council areas are also projected to see a decline in the number of children.
- Population projections may differ from published population estimates, and we recommend using the most recent mid-year estimates for all years where they are available. These subnational projections are based on data up to mid-2022 with the next set of 2024-based projections currently planned for release in 2026. We then plan to return to a regular two-year cycle for producing both national and subnational population projections.
What are population projections?
This publication focuses on results over the 10 years to mid-2032. Projections for the 25 years to mid-2047 can be found in the data tables associated with this report.
These are 2022-based projections, and comparisons over time are therefore presented with mid-2022 as the base year. National Records of Scotland (NRS) has since published population estimates for mid-2023 and mid-2024; these have not been included in this report. Projected figures for mid-2023 and mid-2024 will differ from the published population estimates for these years. The projections are intended to provide information on possible changes in population size and structure for future years for which mid-year population estimates are not available. We therefore recommend the use of the latest published mid-year population estimates for all available years. More information can be found in the background section of this report.
Uses and limitations
The primary purpose of these projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as education, health and social care, and transport.
When making use of these projections, it is helpful to know what they are and what they are not.
Projections…
More detail on the methodology used in these projections can be found in the background section of this report.
Population projections for council areas
Projected population change varies across Scotland. The majority of Scotland’s council areas (23 out of 32) are projected to increase in population over the 10 years to mid-2032 (Figure 1). The largest increases are projected for:
- Midlothian (+14.7%)
- East Lothian (+12.4%)
- Glasgow City (+10.9%)
Nine council areas are projected to decrease in population over the 10 years to mid-2032. The largest decreases are projected for:
- Inverclyde (-5.4%)
- West Dunbartonshire (-4.6%)
- Na h-Eileanan Siar (-3.6%)
Figure 1: Twenty-three council areas are projected to increase in population in the 10 years to mid-2032
Projected percentage change in population, council areas, mid-2022 to mid-2032
As can be seen in Figure 1, there is considerable variation in the size of population change with the populations of some areas projected to change only marginally while the population is projected to change more substantially in other areas.
Areas in the central belt and around larger cities are projected to see population growth above the Scottish average (+4.4%), while many council areas in the west of Scotland are projected to see a decrease. The Island council areas, as well as more rural areas are projected to either decrease in population, or have an increase below the Scottish average (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Most of the council areas projected to decline in population are located in the west of Scotland
Map of projected percentage change in population, council areas, mid-2022 to mid-2032
Why is Scotland’s population projected to change?
Population change is driven by two main components, natural change and net migration:
- Natural change = the number of births minus the number of deaths
- Net migration = the number of people moving into an area minus the number of people leaving
Net migration is projected to continue being the main driver of population growth, with all 32 council areas projected to have positive net migration over the 10 years to mid-2032 (Figure 3). The council areas projected to have the highest percentage increases in population due to migration are:
- East Lothian (+14.8%)
- Midlothian (+14.6%)
- Renfrewshire (+12.3%)
Note that this refers to population change due to migration only; overall population change of these areas may be lower due to negative natural change (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: All council areas are projected to see more people moving in than out in the 10 years to mid-2032
Projected components of population change, council areas, mid-2022 to mid-2032
Population change due to natural change (births minus deaths) is projected to continue being negative for most council areas, with the exception of City of Edinburgh (+0.7%) and Midlothian (+0.1%).
The council areas projected to have the largest decline in population due to natural change over the 10 years to mid-2032 are:
- South Ayrshire (-8.3%)
- Na h-Eileanan Siar (-7.8%)
- Dumfries and Galloway (-7.6%)
Where is migration to Scotland projected to come from?
There are three types of migration (Figure 4):
- Within Scotland = migration between council areas in Scotland
- Rest of UK = migration between Scotland and other UK countries
- International = migration between Scotland and countries outside of the UK
Over the 10 years to mid-2032, international migration is projected to be the biggest driver of population increase for Scotland’s biggest cities:
- Glasgow City (+20.1%)
- City of Edinburgh (+16.9%)
- Aberdeen City (+13.0%)
- Dundee City (+11.2%)
All of these cities are also projected to have negative internal migration, with more people leaving these council areas for other parts of Scotland than arriving from other council areas:
- City of Edinburgh (-10.4%)
- Glasgow City (-9.9%)
- Aberdeen City (-6.5%)
- Dundee City (-5.1%)
Figure 4: The migration type and pattern differ across council areas
Projected components of population change due to migration, council areas, mid-2022 to mid-2032
Within Scotland migration is projected to contribute to population growth in 23 council areas over the 10 years to mid-2032. The largest increases due to more people moving into the area from other council areas within Scotland, are projected to be in council areas bordering the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow:
- Midlothian (+10.8%)
- East Renfrewshire (+9.5%)
- East Lothian (+9.4%)
- East Dunbartonshire (+6.9%)
Population change from migration from the rest of the UK is projected to be positive in all but two council areas over the 10 years to mid-2032: Aberdeen City (-0.8%) and East Renfrewshire (-0.5%). The council areas with the largest projected population increases due to migration from the rest of the UK are mainly rural and island regions:
- Orkney Islands (+7.9%)
- Argyll and Bute (+7.3%)
- Dumfries and Galloway (+7.2%)
- Highland (+5.2%)
How is the age structure of the population projected to change?
Scotland’s population is projected to continue to age (Figure 5), with the number of people of pensionable age projected to increase in all 32 council areas over the 10 years to mid-2032. This takes into account the rise in pension age to 67 years between 2026 and 2028.
The council areas with the largest projected increase in people who are of pensionable age are:
- East Lothian (+27.6%)
- Aberdeenshire (+20.5%)
- West Lothian (+19.5%)
Just over half of council areas (18 out of 32) are projected to see an increase in working age population in the 10 years to mid-2032, with the largest increases in Midlothian (+16.9%), Glasgow City (+12.8%), East Lothian (+11.6%) and City of Edinburgh (+11.4%). The areas with the largest projected decreases in working age population are: Inverclyde (-9.0%), West Dunbartonshire (-5.7%), North Ayrshire (-4.9%) and Na h-Eileanan Siar (-4.9%).
With the exception of Midlothian (+4.7%), all council areas are projected to see a decline in the number of children. In the 10 years to mid-2032, the largest decreases are projected in:
- Na h-Eileanan Siar (-20.9%)
- West Dunbartonshire (-20.4%)
- Shetland Islands (-19.7%)
Figure 5: Scotland’s population is projected to continue to age
Projected percentage change by age group, Scotland, mid-2022 to mid-2032
Age group breakdowns for all council areas can be found in the data tables and interactive visualisation .
How do these projections compare to previous projections?
The last set of projections were based on the mid-year population estimates for 2018. They were rolled forward from Scotland’s Census 2011, whereas this set of 2022-based projections is the first to be based on Scotland’s Census 2022. This also includes the rebased time series for mid-2012 to mid-2021 following the release of 2022 census data.
More generally, underlying demographic changes will have also contributed to the difference between projections. Between mid-2018 and mid-2022, Scotland’s fertility rate fell from 1.46 to 1.33, and estimated life expectancy decreased slightly, too. However, international migration to Scotland has increased during this time, leading to greater net migration overall.
Figure 6 shows the difference between the latest and previous projections for each council area in mid-2032. The latest projections (2022-based) project that nine council areas will experience population decline by mid-2032; this is compared to 17 council areas in the previous set of projections (2018-based).
Figure 6: The 2022-based projections are the first to be based on Scotland’s Census 2022
Percentage difference between 2018-based and 2022-based projections, council areas, mid-2032
For some areas, the direction of projected population change has changed from the previous set of projections. Nine council areas that were projected to decrease in population by mid-2032 in the 2018-based projections are now projected to increase. Falkirk is the only council area which was projected to increase in the last set of projections, but is now projected to decrease slightly in population (-0.02%).
Population projections for NHS health board areas
In the 10 years to mid-2032, 11 out of the 14 health boards are projected to increase in population (Figure 7). The largest projected increases are in:
- NHS Lothian (+9.6%)
- NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (+7.7%)
- NHS Tayside (+4.1%)
Migration is projected to add to the population in all health board areas, while natural change (births minus deaths) is projected to be negative across all health boards.
Figure 7: All health boards are projected to see more deaths than births in the 10 years to mid-2032.
Projected components of population change, NHS board areas, mid-2022 to mid-2032
Variant projections
As well as the principal population projections, a number of variant projections are available on request (Figure 8). These are based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. The variants are useful for illustrating plausible alternative scenarios and are not intended to represent upper or lower limits for future demographic behaviour. These projections are simply scenarios (the outcome of a given set of assumptions), and not forecasts of the most likely course of future events.
Figure 8: Most variants indicate scenarios in which Scotland’s population is projected to increase in the 10 years to mid-2032
Scotland’s population with variant assumptions, mid-2012 to mid-2032
Variant projections are available on the NRS website, and in our interactive data visualisation.
Background information
Methodology
The 2022-based subnational population projections are based on the estimated population at 30 June 2022. Past trends of fertility, mortality and migration are analysed to project future births, deaths and migration. These projections are constrained to the 2022-based national population projections.
The subnational population projections use the cohort-component method. This involves taking the starting population at the beginning of each year, and then:
1. Special populations (armed forces and prisoners) are removed.
2. The remaining population is aged on from the previous year.
3. Local fertility rates are applied to calculate the projected number of births.
4. Local mortality rates are applied to calculate the projected number of deaths.
5. The population is adjusted for migration into and out of each area.
6. Special populations are added back into the population.
More information on the method used to produce these projections is available in the methodology guide on this website.
Fertility
Projected births are calculated by adjusting the Scottish fertility rate to take account of local variations observed in the five years preceding the projections. These local variations are known as local scaling factors. This adjusted fertility rate is then applied to women of child-bearing age (15 to 46 years).
Mortality
Similarly to births, the number of deaths in each area are compared with the national trends. For deaths, this is done separately by sex for three age groups:
Ages 0 to 59, 60 to 79, and 80 and over. The local mortality scaling factors are calculated based on trends from the previous five years.
Migration
Three types of migration are modelled separately by the projections: International migration, rest of the UK migration and within Scotland migration. Flows of in-migrants and out-migrants for each sex are modelled separately.
For within Scotland and rest of UK migration, trends over the previous five years are analysed. These are used to create a migration rate, which is then applied to the projected population for each area to calculate the number of migrants.
International migration is projected differently. Each area’s international migration is projected separately based on past trends. These figures are then used to proportionally distribute the international migration at Scotland level to each area. It is assumed that international migration numbers will remain constant from mid-2028.
State Pension age
In this report, working age and pensionable age populations are based on State Pension age (SPA) for the given year. From December 2018, the SPA for both men and women increased to reach 66 by October 2020 (Pensions Act 2011). Between 2026 and 2027 SPA will increase to 67 years for both sexes (Pensions Act 2014).
Strengths and limitations
Population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.
The reliability of projections decreases over time, and projections tend to be less reliable in periods of rapid change. Projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations. Projections of the number of adults (particularly older people) are usually more reliable than those for children because they are based on people who are already living in Scotland. Migration tends to fluctuate more than fertility or mortality, and it is harder to measure, so there tends to be more uncertainty around the migration figures.
Population projections do not account for potential changes in migration policy or local factors like housing and economic policy, and the input data and assumptions carry inherent uncertainty. Because of this, future official population figures may differ from those projected. The projections in this release are based on demographic trends up to mid-2022, and as new data become available (including the now published mid-2023 and mid-2024 population estimates), projections may diverge from official population estimates. This uncertainty increases over time and is especially pronounced for smaller geographic areas and detailed age or sex breakdowns. For the most up-to-date data, users should therefore rely on the latest official mid-year population estimates for all available years.
Information about our statistics
These statistics are designated as Accredited Official Statistics. More information about Official Statistics can be found on the statistics governance and consultation page.
We also provide information about upcoming publications on our website.
If you would like receive updates on our statistics, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat website.
