National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

Comparison with Previous Projections

Comparison with Previous Projections

The last full set of projections was based on the year 2000. They are contained in 'Population Projections Scotland (2000-based)'. A year ago, the Government Actuary's Department produced an 'interim' set of 2001-based population projections, 'Projected Population of Scotland (2001-based)', consistent with the 2001 mid-year estimates. The revised projections were classed as 'interim' because they did not take full account of the results of the 2001 Census. (The main change from the previous 2000-based full set of projections was the change to the population base and the international migration assumption.)

The 2002-based projections take full account of the 2001 Census results. The key changes compared with the previously-published 2001-based interim projections are the new (lower) mortality rates for older people, and an assumed net out-migration from Scotland of 1,500 a year (compared with 1,000 net out-migration in the previous projections). The fertility assumption (long-term average number of children per woman) remains the same at 1.60.

The change in mortality assumptions increased the expectation of life in 2027 by 1.6 years from 76.8 for males, and by 1.4 years from 81.8 for females. These improved mortality assumptions results in around 3,000 fewer deaths per year over the period.

The projected results for the current and previous projections are shown in Table 5.

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