National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

2008-based Variant Population Projections for Scottish Areas

2008-based Variant Population Projections for Scottish Areas

19 January 2011

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The sub-national population projections for Scotland were published in February 2010. Additional variants for these projections have now been produced to provide users with further information on the future population of Scottish areas. This was in response to requests from councils during the consultation in November 2009.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces over 20 variant projections at national level. These variant projections are based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. For the latest set of Scottish sub-national projections (2008-based projections), two variant projections were published – High and Low Migration Variants. This was the first time a low migration variant projection had been produced for sub-national areas. There is a growing demand for further variants providing more in-depth analysis on the future population of Scottish areas, and so the following variants were produced for Scottish council areas:

  • High and low life expectancy
  • High and low fertility
  • Zero migration (natural change only)

Variant projections are produced to give users further information on the projected populations of Scottish council areas, and to give an indication of the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour, especially for long-term projections. The variants allow users to consider the impact upon the demand and supply of services, such as education, health and the elderly, if future fertility, mortality and migration differ from the assumptions made for the principal projections. They are not intended to represent upper or lower limits but to illustrate plausible alternative scenarios of future demographic behaviour.



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E-mail: [email protected]

If you have comments or suggestions that would help us improve our outputs or our standards of service, contact:  

Kirsty MacLachlan, Senior Statistician, National Records of Scotland,
Room 1/2/3, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh. EH12 7TF.
Telephone: (0131) 314 4242
E-mail: [email protected]

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