The latest estimate of Scotland’s population (on 30 June 2009) is 5,194,000 – the highest since 1979 and an increase of 25,500 people on the previous year. There are almost 140,000 more people in Scotland than in 2002, when the population hit its lowest level since just after the Second World War.
The recent increase in Scotland’s population has been driven mostly by net in-migration although, recently, there have also been more births than deaths. In the twelve months to 30 June 2009, in-migration exceeded out-migration by 21,700. This included a net gain of around 4,100 from the rest of the UK and a net gain of around 17,500 from overseas (including asylum seekers). People joining and leaving the armed forces contributed a net gain of around 100. In the same period, there were 4,585 more births than deaths (59,331 births and 54,746 deaths), the number of births having risen by 131 and the number of deaths having fallen by 554 compared to the year to end June 2008.
The rise in Scotland’s population in the last seven years, and projected changes over the next 2 decades described below, should be seen in the context of the relative stability of the population over the last 50 years, as shown in Figure 1.1. The population reached a peak of 5.24 million in 1974 before falling to 5.05 million in 2002 and then rising again in the last seven years.
Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2033
Figure 1.2 shows the trends in natural change (births minus deaths) and migration. Between 1966 and 1974, both natural change and net out-migration fell dramatically, although the natural increase generally remained greater than net out-migration. This resulted in a growth in population up to 1974. From that point on, through the late 1970s and the 1980s, net out-migration was higher than the natural increase, causing the population to decline. In recent years the trend in natural change has reversed and Scotland has experienced record levels of net in-migration resulting in small increases in the population over each of the last seven years.
Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2009
Age Structure
The age/sex composition is one of the most important aspects of the population, as changes in the number of men and women in different age groups will have different social and economic impacts. For example, increases in the elderly population are likely to place a greater demand on health and social services.
Figure 1.3 shows the age structure of the population in 2009. Eighteen per cent of the population was aged under 16 while 20 per cent was of pensionable age (60 and over for women and 65 and over for men) and the remaining 63 per cent was of working age (16-59 for women, 16-64 for men). Amongst older people, particularly those aged over 75, the higher number of females reflects the longer expectation of life for women, partly as a result of male mortality rates during the Second World War. The sharp peak at age 61, and the bigger bulge between the ages of around 35 and 50, are the result of the two baby booms of 1947 and the 1960s. The small bulge between 15 and 30 are the children of the baby boomers which is known as the echo effect.
Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2009
The changing age structure of Scotland’s population over the last ten years is illustrated in Figure 1.4. During this period the population has increased by around 122,050 (2.4 per cent), from 5.07 million to 5.19 million. The ageing of the population is evident from the decrease in population aged under 16 (-8 per cent) and the increase of those aged 45-59 (+13 per cent), those aged 60-74 (+12 per cent) and those aged over 75 (+14 per cent).
Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 1999-2009
Changes within Scotland
The map at Figure 1.5 shows the percentage change in population between 1999 and 2009 for each Council area.
The Council area with the greatest fall in population was Inverclyde where the population declined by 5,090 (-6 per cent). West Lothian (+10.5 per cent), East Lothian (+8.7 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+7.9 per cent) saw the greatest percentage increases, while the largest increase in absolute numbers was in City of Edinburgh (+30,470).
Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 1999-2009
The relative importance of migration and natural change differs between areas. In some areas of population increase, such as West Lothian and Aberdeenshire, the gain is attributable both to migration and to natural increase. East Lothian and Stirling experienced a population increase because of in-migration combined with a near-zero natural change. In other areas, the population increase is due to in-migration, despite the number of deaths exceeding the number of births. These included Perth & Kinross, Scottish Borders, Highland and Orkney Islands.
Similarly, some areas of population decline, such as Inverclyde, Dundee City, West Dunbartonshire, East Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire have experienced population decreases both from migration and natural change. In contrast, the main factor in the population decline of Shetland Islands and Aberdeen City is net out-migration. In other areas such as Argyll & Bute and North, East and South Ayrshire the population decline was mainly attributable to more deaths than births. This analysis is shown in Table 1.1, which compares percentage change in population due to natural change and migration across the Council areas.
Table 1.1 Components of population change for Council areas: 1999-2009
Natural change 1 |
Net civilian migration and other changes 1 |
Percentage Population change 1,2 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
SCOTLAND |
-0.4 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
Council areas |
|||
Inverclyde |
-2.6 |
-3.4 |
-6.0 |
Eilean Siar |
-4.8 |
1.0 |
-3.8 |
West Dunbartonshire |
-1.2 |
-2.5 |
-3.7 |
East Dunbartonshire |
-0.3 |
-3.3 |
-3.7 |
Dundee City |
-1.3 |
-1.8 |
-3.1 |
Renfrewshire |
-0.7 |
-1.8 |
-2.6 |
Argyll & Bute |
-3.9 |
2.1 |
-1.7 |
Shetland Islands |
1.9 |
-3.2 |
-1.3 |
South Ayrshire |
-3.6 |
2.3 |
-1.2 |
North Ayrshire |
-1.5 |
0.3 |
-1.2 |
Aberdeen City |
0.2 |
-0.6 |
-0.4 |
East Ayrshire |
-1.3 |
1.1 |
-0.3 |
Dumfries & Galloway |
-2.9 |
3.1 |
0.2 |
Midlothian |
0.9 |
-0.6 |
0.2 |
Angus |
-1.9 |
2.5 |
0.6 |
East Renfrewshire |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
Glasgow City |
-0.9 |
1.9 |
0.9 |
Moray |
-0.5 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
North Lanarkshire |
1.3 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
South Lanarkshire |
-0.1 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
Orkney Islands |
-1.9 |
4.7 |
2.8 |
Stirling |
-0.1 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
Fife |
-0.1 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
Clackmannanshire |
0.5 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
Highland |
-0.8 |
6.2 |
5.4 |
Falkirk |
0.4 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
Scottish Borders |
-2.2 |
8.7 |
6.5 |
Edinburgh, City of |
0.7 |
6.1 |
6.8 |
Aberdeenshire |
1.5 |
5.6 |
7.2 |
Perth & Kinross |
-1.8 |
9.7 |
7.9 |
East Lothian |
-0.1 |
8.8 |
8.7 |
West Lothian |
4.2 |
6.3 |
10.5 |
1 The underlying data used to
produce these figures can be found in Table 7 of the 'Mid-2009 Population Estimates Scotland' publication.
2 Ordered by population change.
Projected population
The latest projections of Scotland’s future population are based on the estimate of Scotland’s population in June 2008. The projections, based on existing trends and making no allowance for the future impact of government policies and other factors, show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.17 million in 2008 to 5.54 million in 2033 (Figure 1.1). Longer term projections show the population peaking at around 5.57 million in the mid 2040s.
Until around 2026, natural change and migration both act to increase the size of the population as the number of births exceeds the number of deaths and there is net in-migration. After that point, the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, a consequence of the ageing of the population whilst the net migration into Scotland continues. Figure 1.6 shows the historical and projected future trends of births and deaths in Scotland.
Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2033
Between 2008 and 2033, Scotland’s population is projected to age markedly. As shown in Figure 1.7, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by around 2 per cent, from 0.91 million to 0.90 million. The number of people aged 60 and over is projected to rise by 50 per cent, from 1.17 million to 1.75 million.
Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2008-20331
‘Dependency ratios’ are the number of dependants - children aged under 16 and people of pensionable age - per 1,000 working age population. Figure 1.8, which takes account of the increase in the pensionable age for both men and women*, shows little change in these ratios over the next 15-20 years, but a fairly rapid increase in the pension age population relative to the working age population in subsequent years.
* Pensionable age is 65 for men, 60 for women until 2010; between 2010 and 2020 pensionable age for women rises to 65. Between 2024 and 2026 the pensionable age for both men and women increases to 66 and changes again, in two further steps, to 68 by 2046.
Figure 1.8 Dependency ratios1(per thousand working population), 2008-2033
As demographic behaviour is uncertain, a number of variant projections of the future population have been calculated, based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, in addition to the ‘principal projection’ on which the previous paragraphs are based. The variant projections give users an indication of this uncertainty. They illustrate plausible alternative scenarios, rather than representing upper or lower limits of future demographic behaviour. These variant projections, and the assumptions used, can be found on the Office for National Statistics website: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase?Product.asp?vlnk=8519 .
Scotland’s position within Europe
The population of most of the countries in Europe is projected to increase over the next few years. Scotland’s population is projected to rise by 7.3 per cent between 2008 and 2033. The population of Europe (EU-27) is projected to increase by 5.1 per cent during this period. The rest of the UK, and certain countries such as Ireland, are projected to have much bigger increases. However Germany, and a number of Eastern European countries, are projecting a population decline as Figure 1.9 shows.
Figure 1.9 Projected percentage population change in selected European countries 2008-2033
Scotland is not alone in having an ageing population. The pattern of change over the last twenty years, and the projected change in the age distribution, is similar to that of other countries in the UK and Europe, although the rate of change varies.