Unlike some countries, the UK does not have a comprehensive system of recording migrants, particularly those leaving the country, nor any legal requirement to notify change of address. So migration is the most difficult component of population change to measure and predict. Migration and the reasons for migrating are also much more susceptible to short-term changes in social and economic circumstances than births and deaths. The Registrar General’s Annual Report for 2003 includes a full analysis of migration data for Scotland. This included analysis of 2001 Census information and gave an overview of data used in the population estimates for Scotland. More detailed information on the methodology for estimating migration is available on our website at:
Trends in migration since 1951
Historically, Scotland has been a country of net out-migration, with more people leaving to live elsewhere than moving to live in Scotland. However, since the 1960s, net out-migration has greatly reduced and, in some years during the late 1980s and early 1990s, Scotland experienced net migration gains. As Figure 5.1 shows, Scotland has now entered a period of net in-migration. Over the last six years, there have been net gains of at least 19,000 per year. In 2008-09 the net migration gain was 21,700, the third highest since records started in 1951.
Figure 5.1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2009
Net migration is the difference between much larger flows of migrants into and out of Scotland. The level of net migration can be significantly affected by relatively small changes in these gross flows from year to year, particularly if one flow rises while the other falls. In the last five years, migration into Scotland has typically been about 90,000 to 100,000 per year whilst migration from Scotland has ranged from around 65,000 to around 75,000.
In the year to 30 June 2009, around 45,400 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and around 41,300 people left Scotland for the rest of the UK. The net gain of around 4,100 is lower than the previous year’s net gain of 11,500, mainly because of a drop in the number of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK.
During the same period, about 42,700 people came to Scotland from overseas and around 25,200 left Scotland to go overseas, giving a net migration gain from overseas of around 17,500. This is a record net migration gain from overseas, beating the previous record of 16,800 in the year to June 2007. Estimating international migration is particularly difficult as the estimate is based primarily on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This is a sample survey conducted at main airports and ports across the UK, and the sample size for Scotland is very small (around 217 migrant contacts in 2008-09). Internationally, migrants are defined as people who change their country of usual residence for 12 months or more. So short-term seasonal migrant workers, including many from the Eastern European states which joined the EU in 2004, will not be counted in the migration estimates, and hence will not be included in the mid-year population estimates.
Origins and destinations of migrants
Figure 5.2 illustrates the trend in flows of people to and from the rest of the UK since 1981. There was a large drop in in-migration in 2008-09 following a small rise on the previous year. The downward trend in out-migration, which began in 2001, has continued.
Figure 5.2 Movements to/from the rest of the UK, 1981-2009
Figure 5.3 shows the trends in flows of people to and from overseas since 1991.
In-migration from overseas has been increasing since 2003 and is currently at its highest level since the series began in 1991. Out-migration to overseas has dropped following a large rise last year. The figures shown here are from the Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) series produced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The LTIM figures have been used to estimate overseas migration to and from Scotland for only the last three years, so previously published GROS estimates for international migration may not match those presented here.
Figure 5.3 Movements to/from overseas, 1991-2009
Table 5.1 shows that 93 per cent of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK came from England. The biggest in-flows were of people from the North West, the South East and London. In-flows from Wales and Northern Ireland accounted for 4 per cent and 3 per cent of the total respectively. The proportions of people going from Scotland to Wales, Northern Ireland and each of the areas of England were similar to those coming from those areas. Scotland gained migrants from every part of the UK except Northern Ireland and London.
Table 5.1 Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK by Country and Region, mid-2008 to mid-2009
Rest of UK inflow 2008-09 |
Rest of UK outflow 2008-09 |
Net |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual |
Per cent |
Actual |
Per cent |
Actual |
|
England |
42,443 |
93 |
37,575 |
91 |
4,868 |
North East |
3,734 |
8 |
3,383 |
8 |
351 |
North West |
7,175 |
16 |
6,014 |
15 |
1,161 |
Yorkshire and the Humber |
4,912 |
11 |
3,641 |
9 |
1,271 |
East Midlands |
3,089 |
7 |
2,624 |
6 |
465 |
West Midlands |
2,902 |
6 |
2,540 |
6 |
362 |
East |
4,140 |
9 |
3,393 |
8 |
747 |
London |
6,298 |
14 |
6,967 |
17 |
-669 |
South East |
6,512 |
14 |
5,579 |
14 |
933 |
South West |
3,681 |
8 |
3,434 |
8 |
247 |
Wales |
1,703 |
4 |
1,505 |
4 |
198 |
Northern Ireland |
1,261 |
3 |
2,205 |
5 |
-944 |
Total |
45,407 |
100 |
41,285 |
100 |
4,122 |
Age and sex of migrants
Figure 5.4 illustrates the ages of people moving between Scotland and the rest of the UK between mid-2008 and mid-2009. The peak age for migration into Scotland is 19, at which age there is a marked migration gain. The peak ages for migrating out of Scotland are 23 and 24 and this results in a migration loss at these ages. These large in and out flows result from an influx of students from outside Scotland starting higher education, followed by a move out of Scotland after graduation. The gains at the earlier ages and the later losses were, in 2008-09, almost exactly equal.
Figure 5.4 Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK, by age, mid-2008 to mid-2009
Figure 5.5 shows the age distribution of people moving between Scotland and overseas between mid-2008 and mid-2009. In contrast to moves to Scotland from the rest of the UK, the peak age for migration into Scotland is 23 and there are high numbers of migrants from age 19 to 30. This results in a net migration gain of young adults through to age 35.
Figure 5.5 Movements between Scotland and overseas, by age, mid-2008 to mid-2009
For both rest of the UK and overseas moves, there also tend to be smaller peaks for moves of the very young, under the age of 5, as their parents move home before their children have started school. Later in life, there is no significant "retirement migration" in either direction. The pattern of migration is very similar for men and women.
Table 5.2 shows movements to and from the UK and overseas between mid-2008 and mid-2009 by age group. Migrants tend to be much younger than the general population: 49 per cent of in-migrants from the rest of the UK and 69 per cent of those from overseas are aged 16-34, compared with 24 per cent of the resident population. Only 5 per cent of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK were aged 65 and over, as were an estimated 1 per cent of overseas migrants. Scotland had a net gain of UK migrants in every age group except 25-34 and of international migrants in every age group to 45.
Table 5.2 Rest of UK/Overseas moves by age group: 2008-2009
Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK1 |
||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-15 |
16-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55-64 |
65-74 |
75-84 |
85+ |
All ages |
|||||||||||
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
% |
|||
IN |
6,815 |
15 |
11,025 |
24 |
11,252 |
25 |
7,055 |
16 |
4,309 |
9 |
2,786 |
6 |
1,171 |
3 |
598 |
1 |
396 |
1 |
45,407 |
100 |
OUT |
5,956 |
14 |
9,822 |
24 |
12,489 |
30 |
5,927 |
14 |
3,314 |
8 |
2,022 |
5 |
948 |
2 |
528 |
1 |
279 |
1 |
41,285 |
100 |
NET |
859 |
|
1,203 |
|
-1,237 |
|
1,128 |
|
995 |
|
764 |
|
223 |
|
70 |
|
117 |
|
4,122 |
|
Movements between Scotland and Overseas (including asylum seekers)2 |
||||||||||||||||||||
0-15 |
16-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55-64 |
65-74 |
75-84 |
85+ |
All ages |
|||||||||||
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
% |
|||
IN |
5,826 |
14 |
14,494 |
34 |
14,793 |
35 |
4,190 |
10 |
1,988 |
5 |
857 |
2 |
364 |
1 |
135 |
0 |
53 |
0 |
42,700 |
100 |
OUT |
3,594 |
14 |
5,924 |
24 |
7,743 |
31 |
3,669 |
15 |
1,997 |
8 |
1,209 |
5 |
573 |
2 |
315 |
1 |
176 |
1 |
25,200 |
100 |
NET |
2,232 |
|
8,570 |
|
7,050 |
|
521 |
|
-9 |
|
-352 |
|
-209 |
|
-180 |
|
-123 |
|
17,500 |
|
Total net migration (including asylum seekers and rounding)3 |
||||||||||||||||||||
0-15 |
16-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55-64 |
65-74 |
75-84 |
85+ |
All ages |
|||||||||||
NET |
3,154 |
|
9,246 |
|
5,958 |
|
1,864 |
|
1,042 |
|
475 |
|
19 |
|
-97 |
|
10 |
|
21,671 |
|
Age distribution of the mid-2009 resident population of Scotland |
||||||||||||||||||||
|
0-15 |
16-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55-64 |
65-74 |
75-84 |
85+ |
All ages |
||||||||||
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
% |
|||
Total |
912,340 |
18 |
623,084 |
12 |
644,682 |
12 |
746,010 |
14 |
756,006 |
15 |
643,366 |
12 |
469,991 |
9 |
295,004 |
6 |
103,517 |
2 |
5,194,000 |
100 |
1 National Health Service Central
Register (NHSCR) patient movements mid-2008 to mid-2009.
2 Totals are based primarily on International
Passenger Survey (IPS) data. However, the sample size in Scotland
is too small to give an age breakdown so an age distribution is
assumed using NHSCR data.
3 Note that the movements between Scotland and the
rest of the UK and overseas will not sum to the total net migration
as they exclude movements to and from the armed forces and rounding
adjustments.
Migration and the distribution of people in Scotland
In many parts of Scotland, migration is the most important component of population change. Net migration rates (here, the amount of net migration between 1999 and 2009 as a proportion of the 1999 population) are a useful indicator when comparing migration between areas of different sizes. Information on net rates for Council areas is shown in Figure 5.6.
The patterns of migration over the period 1999 to 2009 indicate that the highest net out-migration rates were in Shetland Islands, East Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde. The highest net in-migration rates were in Perth & Kinross, East Lothian and Scottish Borders.
Figure 5.6 Net migration as percentage of population by Council area, 1999-2009
The role of UK and overseas migration show a slightly different pattern. Migration between mid-2008 and mid-2009 to and from areas outside Scotland, as a proportion of the resident population, is shown in Figure 5.7. The highest net in-migration rates were in the city areas of Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow as well as Perth & Kinross. The highest net out-migration rates were in South Lanarkshire, East Renfrewshire and Inverclyde.
Figure 5.7 Net migration with areas outside Scotland as percentage of population by Council area, mid-2008 to mid-2009
Improvements in migration statistics
Since the early 2000s, and especially since Eastern European countries joined the EU in May 2004, migration has played a larger part in Scotland’s demographic change than in the previous decade. So it has become more important to have high quality statistics on migration and the population, for policy development and for planning and providing public services. GROS is part of an inter-departmental effort, led by the Office of National Statistics, to improve the estimates of migration and migrant populations in the United Kingdom, both nationally and at a local level. The Improvements to Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS) cross-government programme involves:
Within Scotland, we plan to use the improved statistical information thus available, to improve progressively the population estimates and projections which we prepare and publish. This includes: