1 2010-based projections.
Chapter 1 - Population
The latest estimate of Scotland's population (on 30 June 2011) is 5,254,8001 - the highest ever and an increase of 32,700 people on the previous year. There are around 200,000 more people in Scotland than in 2002, when the population was at its lowest level in recent times.
The current increase in Scotland's population has been driven mostly by net in-migration although, recently, there have also been more births than deaths. In the twelve months to 30 June 2011, in-migration exceeded out-migration by 27,000. This included a net gain of around 2,900 from the rest of the UK and a net gain of around 25,400 from overseas (including asylum seekers). People joining and leaving the armed forces resulted in a net loss of around 1,400. In the same period, there were 4,809 more births than deaths (58,766 births and 53,957 deaths), the second highest increase since 1991-92. Other minor changes resulted in a gain of 900 people.
The rise in Scotland's population in the last nine years, and projected changes over the next two decades, should be seen in the context of the relative stability of the population over the last 50 years, as shown in Figure 1.1. The population rose to 5.24 million in 1974 before falling to 5.05 million in 2002 and then rising again in the last nine years achieving the highest estimate so far, 5.25 million, in 2011.
Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2035
1 2010-based projections.
Figure 1.2 shows the trends in natural change (births minus deaths) and migration. Between the mid-1960s and mid-1970s, both natural change and net out-migration fell dramatically, although the natural increase generally remained greater than net out-migration. This resulted in a growth in population up to 1974. From that point on, through the late 1970s and the 1980s, net out-migration was higher than the natural increase, causing the population to decline. In recent years the trend in natural change has reversed and Scotland has experienced record levels of net in-migration resulting in small increases in the population over each of the last nine years.
Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2011
Age Structure
Composition by age and sex is one of the most important aspects of the population, as changes in the number of men and women in different age groups will have different social and economic impacts. For example, increases in the elderly population are likely to place a greater demand on health and social services.
Figure 1.3 shows the age structure of the population in 2011. Seventeen per cent of the population was aged under 16, 66 per cent was aged 16 to 64 and 17 per cent was aged 65 and over. Amongst older people, particularly those aged over 75, the higher number of females reflects the longer expectation of life for women, partly as a result of male mortality rates during the Second World War. The sharp peak at age 64, and the bigger bulge between the ages of around 40 and 50, are the result of the two baby booms of 1947 and the 1960s. The smaller bulge between 20 and 30, which is known as the echo effect, is the children of the baby boomers.
Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2011
The changing age structure of Scotland's population over the last ten years is illustrated in Figure 1.4. During this period the population increased by over 190,600 (3.8 per cent), from 5.06 million to 5.25 million. The ageing of the population is evident from the decrease in population aged under 16 (-6 per cent) and the increase of those aged 45-59 (+13 per cent), those aged 60-74 (+15 per cent) and those aged over 75 (+15 per cent).
Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland's population, 2001-2011
Changes within Scotland
The map at Figure 1.5 shows the percentage change in population between 2001 and 2011 for each Council area.
The Council area with the greatest fall in population was Inverclyde where the population declined by 4,930 (-5.9 per cent). Perth & Kinross (+10.8 per cent) and City of Edinburgh (+10.3 per cent) saw the greatest percentage increases, while the largest increase in absolute numbers was also in City of Edinburgh (+46,340).
Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 2001-2011
The relative importance of migration and natural change differs between areas. In some areas of population increase, such as City of Edinburgh, West Lothian and Aberdeenshire, the gain is attributable both to migration and to natural increase. East Lothian, South Lanarkshire and Stirling experienced a population increase because of in-migration combined with a very low natural change. In other areas, the population increase is due to in-migration, despite the number of deaths exceeding the number of births. These included Perth & Kinross, Scottish Borders and Orkney Islands.
Similarly, some areas of population decline, such as Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire and East Dunbartonshire have experienced population decreases both from migration and natural change. In other areas such as Eilean Siar, South Ayrshire and North Ayrshire the population decline was mainly attributable to more deaths than births. This analysis is shown in Table 1.1, which compares percentage change in population due to natural change and migration across the Council areas.
Table 1.1 Components of population change for Council areas: 2001-2011
| Natural change 1 | Net civilian migration and other changes 1 | Percentage population change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTLAND | 0.01 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Council areas2 | |||
| Inverclyde | -2.5 | -3.4 | -5.9 |
| East Dunbartonshire | -0.4 | -3.0 | -3.4 |
| West Dunbartonshire | -0.9 | -2.2 | -3.2 |
| Argyll & Bute | -3.8 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| Eilean Siar | -4.9 | 3.5 | -1.4 |
| Renfrewshire | -0.6 | -0.7 | -1.3 |
| South Ayrshire | -3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 |
| North Ayrshire | -1.2 | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| East Ayrshire | -0.9 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
| Dundee City | -0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Dumfries & Galloway | -2.7 | 2.9 | 0.2 |
| Moray | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| East Renfrewshire | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| North Lanarkshire | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| Midlothian | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Angus | -1.6 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Shetland Islands | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| South Lanarkshire | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Glasgow City | -0.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Aberdeen City | 0.8 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Orkney Islands | -1.6 | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Fife | 0.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Stirling | 0.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Clackmannanshire | 1.2 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| Scottish Borders | -1.9 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Falkirk | 1.1 | 5.2 | 6.3 |
| Highland | -0.5 | 6.9 | 6.4 |
| West Lothian | 4.5 | 4.3 | 8.8 |
| East Lothian | 0.2 | 8.6 | 8.9 |
| Aberdeenshire | 1.8 | 7.3 | 9.1 |
| Edinburgh, City of | 1.4 | 8.9 | 10.3 |
| Perth & Kinross | -1.6 | 12.4 | 10.8 |
1 Change per 100 population at mid-2001. The underlying data used to produce these figures can be found in Table 6 of the 'Mid-2011 Population Estimates Scotland' publication.
2 Ordered by population change.
Projected population
The latest projections of Scotland's future population are based on the estimate of Scotland's population in June 2010. The projections, based on existing trends and making no allowance for the future impact of government policies and other factors, show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.22 million in 2010 to 5.76 million in 2035 (Figure 1.1). Longer term projections show the population continuing to rise, reaching around 6.20 million by 2085.
Until 2028, natural change and migration both act to increase the size of the population as the number of births exceeds the number of deaths and there is net in-migration. After that point, the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, a consequence of the ageing of the population, whilst the net migration into Scotland continues. Figure 1.6 shows the historical and projected future trends of births and deaths in Scotland.
Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2035
1 Calendar year.
2 2010 based projections, data shown for mid year.
Between 2010 and 2035, Scotland's population is projected to age significantly. As shown in Figure 1.7, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to rise only by 3 per cent, from 0.91 million to 0.94 million. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to rise by 63 per cent, from 0.88 million to 1.43 million.
Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland's population, 2010-20351
1 2010-based projections.
'Dependency ratios' are the number of dependants, meaning children aged under 16 and people of pensionable age, per 1,000 working age population. Figure 1.8, which takes account of the increase in the pensionable age for both men and women*, shows little change in these ratios over the next 15-20 years, but a fairly rapid increase in the pension age population relative to the working age population in subsequent years. This starts to slow down in 2035 due to changes in state pension age.
Figure 1.8 Dependency ratios1(per thousand working population), 2010-2035
1 2010-based projections.
As demographic behaviour is uncertain, a number of variant projections of the future population have been calculated, based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, in addition to the 'principal projection' on which the previous paragraphs are based. The variant projections give users an indication of this uncertainty. They illustrate plausible alternative scenarios, rather than representing upper or lower limits of future demographic behaviour. These variant projections, and the assumptions used, can be found on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=National+Population+Projections
Scotland's position within Europe
The population of most of the countries in Europe is projected to increase over the next few years. Scotland's population is projected to rise by 10 per cent between 2010 and 2035. The population of Europe (EU-27*) is projected to increase by 4.7 per cent while the rest of the UK, and certain countries such as Ireland, are projected to have much bigger increases. However Germany as well as a number of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs)*, are projecting a population decline as Figure 1.9 shows.
Figure 1.9 Projected percentage population change in selected European countries 2010-2035
Source: ONS (UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat.
Scotland is not alone in having an ageing population. The pattern of change over the last twenty years, and the projected change in the age distribution, is similar to that of other countries in the UK and Europe, although the rate of change varies.
More information about population statistics
More detailed information about Scotland's population, including estimates, projections at national and sub-Scotland level, as well as estimates of specific population groups, can be found at: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/
There is progressively more uncertainty associated with the population and migration estimates as the number of years since the previous census increases. The estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2011 will be re-based using the 2011 Census data when it becomes available.