2.1 The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2008 was 5,168,500 — the highest since 1981. This represents an increase of 24,300 on the previous year and of almost 114,000 compared to mid-2002, when the population hit its lowest level since just after the Second World War. In the twelve months to mid-2008, there was a net migration gain of 20,000 people, consisting of a net gain of 11,500 people from the rest of the UK, a net gain of 7,700 from overseas (including asylum seekers) and a net gain of 800 due to movements to and from the armed forces. Other changes (including changes in the prison population, and changes in the number of armed forces stationed in Scotland) amounted to an increase of 400 people. There were 59,200 births in 2007-08 (4.4 per cent more than the previous year and the largest number since 1996-97) and 55,300 deaths (0.6 per cent fewer than the previous year). The number of births in the twelve months up to mid-2008 exceeded the number of deaths by 3,900. This is the largest gain in population due to natural change (births minus deaths) since 1991-92 and compares to a gain of 1,100 in 2006-07.
2.2 This is the sixth year in a row that the Scottish population has increased and most of the increase was because more people migrated into Scotland than left. In 2007-08 around 53,300 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 41,800 left Scotland to go in the opposite direction. The resulting net gain of 11,500 was greater than the previous year’s 8,800 net gain because more people entered and fewer people left.
2.3 The overseas net gain of 7,700 came from an inflow of 38,500 and an outflow of 30,800. This compares to a net inflow of 16,800 the previous year which was a record gain. The difference is a result of more people leaving Scotland to go overseas despite slightly more people moving in the other direction: in the previous year, the inflow was 37,800 and the outflow 21,000. Estimating international migration is particularly difficult. The estimate is based primarily on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) which is a sample survey conducted at main airports and ports across the UK. The sample size for Scotland is very small (around 210 contacts in 2007-08). Internationally, a migrant is defined as someone who changes their country of usual residence for 12 months or more, so a short-term seasonal migrant worker will not be counted in the migration estimates or in the mid-year population estimates. More details about the migration data sources and definitions used can be found in Section 6.
2.4 For comparison purposes it is better to look at a time frame of longer than one year, as population change tends to fluctuate from year to year, particularly for smaller areas. Between mid-2001 and mid-2008, Scotland’s population increased by 2.1 per cent (+104,300) from 5.06 million to 5.17 million (Table 6). Over the last 10 years, between mid-1998 and mid-2008, Scotland’s population increased by 1.8 per cent (+91,430) from 5.08 million (Table 7 and Figure 1). As Figure 2 shows, the main reason for the smaller increase over the longer period is that both migration and natural change (births minus deaths) were negative in the late 1990s.
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland, 1951-2008
Figure 2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2008
2.5 Table 9 shows movements to and from the UK and overseas between mid-2007 and mid-2008 by age group. The main source of data for the overseas migration calculations is the International Passenger Survey but, because of its small sample size, an age and sex distribution is calculated from General Medical Practitioner (GP) registrations. The method used to estimate international migration is described in Section 6.
2.6 Migrants tend to be younger than the general population as Table 9 shows. Of in-migrants to Scotland, 47 per cent from the rest of the UK and 67 per cent of those from overseas were aged 16-34 years, yet in the resident population only 24 per cent were in this age group. Only 5 per cent of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK and 1 per cent of people entering from overseas were aged 65 and over.