This paper summarises the National Records of Scotland's (NRS) mid-2013 estimates of the population of Scotland and its administrative areas.
These population estimates are produced using the demographic cohort component method. The estimates are based on the 2011 Census (the results of which are available on the Scotland's Census website). The population is 'aged on' one year (that is, the 0 year olds become 1 year olds, and so on), the number of births in the year are added, the number of deaths subtracted and adjustments are made for estimated migration and other changes in special populations. It is important to remember that while the number of births and deaths are considered to be almost complete, there is no comprehensive source of migration data for moves within Scotland, or to and from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world. Estimates of migration are made using the best proxy sources available including General Medical Practitioner (GP) registrations and survey information. Therefore, any error in the population estimates is likely to be due to the migration estimates, particularly the international estimates. Other errors can also be introduced from the population base used. The method used to estimate migration is described in Section 6. The methodology behind the population estimates is described in full on the Mid-Year Population Estimates section of the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website. More information on reconciling mid-year estimates with the latest Census results can also be found on the NRS website.
The Scottish Government has set a target to match average European Union (EU15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017. The population estimates in this publication have been used to measure progress towards this target. More details can be found on the Scotland Performs section of the Scottish Government website.
Population estimates are used for a variety of purposes including resource allocation and planning of services such as education and health. They are also used for calculating rates and performance measures, informing local and national policy, weighting surveys and in modelling the economy.
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority (UKSA) has designated this publication as National Statistics, in line with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Further information can be found in the UK Statistics Authority-Assessments section on the NRS website.
The methodology used to calculate mid-year population estimates is constantly being improved. In consultation with users on the Population and Migration Statistics Committee (information available on the NRS website), for the mid-2011 estimates onwards we have made improvements to the distributions we apply to international migration estimates and have introduced an adjustment to account for increases in the prison population. More details are found within the updated methodology paper for mid-year estimates on the NRS website. We have also altered the way we present migration and have made other changes in some of our tables in response to feedback from users.