2.1 The latest estimate of Scotland's population (on 30 June 2013) is 5,327,700 - the highest ever and an increase of 14,100 people since 30 June 2012 (Figure 1 below).
2.2 The increase in Scotland's population between mid-2012 and mid-2013 has been driven mostly by net migration. In the year to mid-2013, in-migration exceeded out-migration by approximately 10,000 people. This included a net gain of around 7,900 people from the rest of the UK and a net gain of around 2,100 from overseas.
2.3 Net migration to Scotland from the rest of the UK has increased in the last two full year periods, increasing from approximately 3,000 in the year to mid-2012 to 7,900 in the year to mid-2013. This net gain of 7,900 came from an inflow of 47,700 (an increase of 2,600 from the previous year) and an outflow of 39,800 (a decrease of 2,300 from the previous year), meaning that the increase in net migration to Scotland from the rest of the UK is being driven by more in-migrants and fewer out-migrants.
2.4 Between mid-2012 and mid-2013, 28,200 people came to Scotland from overseas and 26,100 left Scotland to go overseas. The net gain of 2,100 represents about 1 in 2,500 (0.04 per cent) of the total population. Fewer people came to Scotland from overseas in the year to mid-2013, a net gain of 2,100 compared with 9,700 in the previous year. This is due to fewer migrants arriving in Scotland from overseas, 28,200 compared with 35,900 in the previous year.
2.5 Estimating international migration is particularly difficult. The estimates are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) which is a sample survey conducted at main airports and ports across the UK. The sample size for Scotland is very small (around 250 contacts between mid-2012 and mid-2013). Internationally, a migrant is defined as someone who changes country of usual residence for 12 months or more, so a short-term seasonal migrant worker will not be counted in the migration estimates or in the mid-year population estimates. More information about the migration data sources and definitions used can be found in Section 6.
2.6 Other changes between mid-2012 and mid-2013 (including changes in the prison population, and changes in the number of armed forces stationed in Scotland) resulted in an increase of approximately 3,200 people. This increase is mostly due to increased armed forces numbers in three Council areas, namely Argyll & Bute, the City of Edinburgh and Moray.
2.7 The number of births in the year to mid-2013 exceeded the number of deaths by approximately 900, a decrease of 3,300 compared with 4,200 in the previous year. This decrease was driven by approximately 1,600 fewer births and 1,700 more deaths.
2.8 Figure 2 shows the trends in natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration. Between the mid-1960s and mid-1970s, both natural change and net out-migration fell dramatically, although the natural increase generally remained higher than net out-migration. This resulted in the growth of the population up to 1974. From that point on, through the late 1970s and the 1980s, net out-migration was higher than the natural increase, causing the population to decline. In recent years, Scotland has experienced record levels of net in-migration resulting in small increases in the population in each of the last thirteen years, although net migration has fallen in the last couple of years.
2.9 Table 8 shows movements to and from the UK and overseas between mid-2012 and mid-2013 by age group. The main source of data for the overseas migration calculations is the International Passenger Survey but, because of its small sample size, an age and sex distribution is estimated using various sources including General Medical Practitioner (GP) registrations. The method used to estimate international migration, including improvements made to the methodology is described in Section 6..
2.10 Migrants to Scotland tend to be younger than the general population, as Table 8 shows. Of in-migrants to Scotland, 49 per cent from the rest of the UK and 69 per cent of those from overseas were aged 16-34 years, yet in the resident population only 25 per cent were in this age group. Only six per cent of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK and two per cent of people entering from overseas were aged 65 and over. Scotland had a net gain of UK migrants in every age group, except those aged 25-34 and 75-84, and a net loss of international migrants to overseas for all ages over 25.
2.11 Figure 3 illustrates the trend in flows of people to and from the rest of the UK since 1983. There has been an increase in people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK in each of the last two years following drops in the previous three years. The recent peak of 61,900 was recorded in 2003-04. There has been a decrease in outward migration to 39,800 in 2012-13 from the previous year's figure of 42,100.
2.12 Flows of people to and from overseas since 1993 are shown in Figure 4. In-migration from overseas has been increasing since 2003 but has dropped in the last three years with the largest percentage decrease (21 per cent) recorded in 2012-13. Out-migration to overseas increased by 55 per cent to 26,200 in 2011-12 (following drops estimated in three consecutive years from 2008-09) and this level of out-migration has been maintained in 2012-13. The figures shown here are from the Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) series produced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and the National Records of Scotland rebased international migration estimates for the years ending mid-2002 to mid-2011.
