Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2010-based)

Main points

The main points in this report, relating to the period between 2010 and 2035, are:

Principal projection

The population of Scotland is projected to rise by 10 per cent over the next 25 years, from 5.22 million in 2010 to 5.76 million by 2035, and continue to rise into the future. But this pattern is not to be experienced in all areas of Scotland. Some areas are projected to increase in size while others to decrease.
The population of 22 of the 32 Council areas in Scotland are projected to increase while the population in the other 10 are projected to decrease. The Council areas with the greatest projected increase in population are East Lothian (+33 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+32 per cent). Inverclyde (-17 per cent) and Eilean Siar (-11 per cent) have the largest projected decreases.
Scotland's population is projected to age and this is true for all administrative areas to a greater or lesser extent.
The number of children aged 0-15 is projected to increase in half of Scotland's Council areas, with the biggest increases projected for East Lothian (+41 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+32 per cent). The biggest decreases are projected for Eilean Siar (-34 per cent) and Inverclyde (-27 per cent).
The population of working age^[1] is projected to increase in 17 Council areas and decrease in 15, increasing the most in Perth & Kinross (+33 per cent) and decreasing the most in Inverclyde (-24 per cent).
The population of pensionable age^[2] is projected to increase in all Council areas, with the largest increases being projected in West Lothian (+52 per cent) and Aberdeenshire (+50 per cent), and the smallest increase is projected in Dundee City (+4 per cent).

Variant projections

For Scotland, the high migration variant (+15 per cent) projects the largest increase in the population, followed by the high fertility variant (+13 per cent), high life expectancy variant (+12 per cent), the principal projection (+10 per cent), then the low life expectancy variant (+9 per cent), low fertility variant (+7 per cent), low migration variant (+5 per cent), and lastly the zero migration variant (-1 per cent). The variant projections for most Council areas follow a similar pattern.
The high migration variant shows the projected population if Scotland were to gain larger numbers through migration than assumed in the principal projection. The population in 26 of the Council areas is projected to rise under this variant. The greatest increase is projected for Perth & Kinross (+37 per cent), closely followed by East Lothian and City of Edinburgh (both +36 per cent). The largest decrease is again projected for Inverclyde (-15 per cent), followed by East Dunbartonshire (-8 per cent).
The low migration variant shows the projected population if Scotland were to gain smaller numbers through migration than assumed in the principal projection. The population of 18 Council areas are projected to rise under this variant. Again the greatest increases are projected for East Lothian (+30 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+26 per cent), and the largest decreases in Inverclyde (-19 per cent) and Eilean Siar (-17 per cent).
The zero migration variant projection shows the projected population if migration was not to affect the total population of Scotland. Under this variant the population of 12 Council areas is projected to rise, and the largest increases are projected for West Lothian (+8 per cent) and Shetland Islands (+4 per cent). The largest decreases are projected for Eilean Siar (-8 per cent), and Argyll & Bute and South Ayrshire (both -7 per cent).
The fertility variants suggest what might happen to the population if fertility levels were higher, or lower than assumed in the principal projection. Under the high fertility variant, the population of 24 Council areas are projected to increase, with the largest increases and decreases projected for East Lothian (+37 per cent) and Inverclyde (-14 per cent) respectively. Under the low fertility variant, the population of 19 Council areas are projected to increase. East Lothian and Perth & Kinross are projected to have the largest increase (both +29 per cent), and Inverclyde is projected to experience the biggest population decline (-19 per cent).
The life expectancy variants suggest what might happen to the population if mortality rates improved more, or less than assumed in the principal projection. Under the high life expectancy variant, the population of 24 Council areas are projected to increase, with the largest increases and decreases projected for East Lothian (+34 per cent) and Inverclyde (-15 per cent) respectively. The low life expectancy variant projects the population of 20 Council areas to increase, and the same areas are projected to experience the biggest increases and decreases as under the high life expectancy variant: East Lothian (+32 per cent), and Inverclyde (-18 per cent).

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