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Principal and variant population projections by sex, age and administrative area
Published on 29 February 2012
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Contents
Main points
1. Background
2. Uses and Limitations of Projections
3. Results of the Projection
3.1 Scotland
3.2 Council Areas
3.3 NHS Board Areas
3.4 Age Structure Across Scotland
4. Comparisons with the 2008-based Projections
5. Variant Projections
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Migration Variants
5.3 Life Expectancy Variants
5.4 Fertility Variants
6. Methodology and Assumptions
6.1 Methodology
6.2 Base Population
6.3 Projections System
6.4 Fertility
6.5 Mortality
6.6 Migration
7. Further Information
Annex A: Assumed fertility rates by age, mid-year to mid-year periods, Scotland
Annex B: Assumed mortality rates by sex, for selected ages and years, Scotland
Annex C: Fertility and mortality local scaling factors by Council and NHS Board area
Annex D: Migration assumptions for the principal projection by Council and NHS Board area
Annex E: Migration assumptions for the high migration variant by Council and NHS Board area
Annex F: Migration assumptions for the low migration variant by Council and NHS Board area
Annex G: Trends in net migration, mid-2005 to mid-2010 by Council areas
Annex H: Scenarios and assumptions for the 2010-based principal and seven variant projections for Scotland
List of Tables
Table A: Components of projected population change for Council areas, 2010-2035
Table B: Projected percentage change in population (2010-based), by broad age group and Council areas, 2010-2035
Table 1: Projected population by Council and NHS Board area (2010-based), 2010-2035
Table 2: Projected population (2010-based) by sex and broad age group, Council
and NHS Board areas, selected years
Table 3: Projected percentage change in population (2010-based), by broad age group, Council and NHS Board areas, selected years
Table 4: Projected births (2010-based), by Council and NHS Board areas, 2010-2035
Table 5: Comparison between 2008 and 2010-based population projections, by
Council and NHS Board areas, 2010-2033
Table 6: Comparison between principal and variant population projections, by Council and NHS Board areas, 2010-2035
List of Figures
Figure 1: Estimated population of Scotland (2010-based), actual and projected,
1951-2035
Figure 2a: Projected percentage change in population (2010 based), by Council area, 2010-2035 (Map)
Figure 2b: Projected percentage change in population (2010-based), by Council area, 2010-2035 (Chart)
Figure 3a: Projected percentage change in population (2010 based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035 (Map)
Figure 3b: Projected percentage change in population (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035 (Chart)
Figure 4a: Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2010-based), by Council area, 2010-2035
Figure 4b: Projected percentage change in population of working age (2010-based), by Council area, 2010-2035
Figure 4c: Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age (2010 based), by Council area, 2010-2035
Figure 4d: Projected percentage change in population of 75+ (2010-based), by
Council area, 2010-2035
Figure 5a: Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2010-based), by
NHS Board area, 2010-2035
Figure 5b: Projected percentage change in population of working age (2010-based),
by NHS Board area, 2010-2035
Figure 5c: Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035
Figure 5d: Projected percentage change in population of 75+ (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035
Figure 6a: Age structure of Council areas in 2010: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 6b: Projected age structure of Council areas in 2035 (2010-based): children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 7a: Age structure of NHS Board areas in 2010: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 7b: Projected age structure of NHS Board areas in 2035 (2010-based): children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 8: Percentage difference between projected 2033 population using 2008-based and 2010-based projections, by Council area
Figure 9: Percentage difference between projected 2033 population using
2008-based and 2010-based projections, by NHS Board area
Figure 10: Variant population projections (2010-based), Scotland, 2010-2035
Figure 11: Projected percentage change in births (2010-based), by Council area,
2010-2035
Figure 12: Migration to and from outwith Scotland and to and from other Council
areas within Scotland, 2005-2010
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