Projected Population of Scotland (2006-based)

A National Statistics publication

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Contents
Main Points
1. Background
2. Summary of results
3. The base population and assumptions used in the projections
4. Comparison with previous projections
5. Scotland’s position within the United Kingdom
6. Scotland’s position within Europe
7. Long term and variant projections
8. Further information
Annex A Fertility assumptions
Annex B Mortality assumptions
Annex C Migration assumptions
Annex D Variant projections and assumptions

List of Tables
Table 1 Projected population of Scotland (2006-based): 2006-2076
Table 2 Projected components of population change, Scotland: 2006-2031 (annual averages)
Table 3 Projected population of Scotland (2006-based), by age group: 2006-2031
Table 4 Projected number of dependents per 100 population: 2006-2031
Table 5a Projected number of births (2006-based), Scotland: 2006-2031
Table 5b Projected number of deaths (2006-based), Scotland: 2006-2031
Table 5c Projected population (2006-based), Scotland: 2006-2031
Table 6 Projected population of Scotland (2006-based), by sex and age group: 2006-2031
Table 7 Principal and selected variant projections (2006-based), Scotland: 2006-2076
Table 8 Projected population change for selected variant projections (2006-based), Scotland: 2006-2031

List of Figures
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2081
Figure 2 Births and deaths, actual1 and projected, Scotland, 1951-2031
Figure 3 Estimated and projected net migration, Scotland, 1951-2031
Figure 4 The projected percentage change in Scotland’s population by age group, 2006-2031
Figure 5 Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1981-2031
Figure 6 Actual and Projected total population with previous projections, 1951-2031
Figure 7 Actual and Projected Natural Change (Births minus Deaths) with previous projections, 1951-2031
Figure 8 Actual and Projected Migration with previous projections, 1951-2031
Figure 9 Comparison of population change for UK countries, 2006-2031
Figure 10 Projected Percentage Population Change in Selected European Countries, 2006-2031
Figure 11 Actual and projected total population Scotland, under the 2006-based principal and selected variant projections, 1981-2081
Figure 12 Percentage change in age structure under the 2006-based principal and selected variant projections, 2006-2031
Figure 13 Average age of Scotland’s population under the 2006-based principal and selected variant projections, 2006-2031
Figure 14 Dependency Ratios (dependents per 100 working population) under the 2006-based principal and selected variant projections, 2006-2031

Figure A1 Scotland Age Specific Fertility 1983-2006
Figure B1 Projected smoothed reductions in death rates by age, UK 2006-2007
Figure B2 Period expectations of life (Eol) for Scotland less respective expectation of life for UK – for males at birth and ages 20, 40, 60 and 80
Figure B3 Comparison of proposed UK and Scotland mortality improvements for base year of projections - males
Figure C1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2006

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