The long term assumption for net migration to Scotland is +8,500 each year compared with +4,000 in the 2004-based projections. This increase follows a recent rise in migration compared with previous years and is also partially due to a change in the way that international migrants are distributed amongst UK countries by ONS. Figure C1 illustrates the trends since 1951.
Figure C1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2006
The long term assumptions are comprised of +4,000 from cross-border migration and +4,500 from international migration. The cross-border assumptions are derived from the average of moves recorded through the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) system over the last 10 years. The international migration assumption is based largely on International Passenger Survey data (IPS).
Table C1 shows the way in which the 8,500 net migration figure is distributed amongst age groups alongside the distribution of the population of Scotland in 2006. Migrants tend to be much younger than the population as a whole with the majority in the 16-29 age group.
Table C1 Age distribution of population (2006) and of long term net migration assumption
Age group |
Scottish population (2006) |
Long term net migration assumption |
|---|---|---|
0-15 |
18% |
12% |
16-29 |
18% |
68% |
30-44 |
22% |
5% |
45-59 |
21% |
10% |
60-74 |
14% |
2% |
75+ |
7% |
4% |
Migration assumptions for the initial years are designed to reflect recent rates of migration, and gradually converge to the long-term assumptions. These short term assumptions for total net migration are:
|
+ 20,500 |
|
+ 16,000 |
|
+ 14,000 |
|
+ 11,500 |
|
+ 10,500 |
|
+ 9,500 |
These reflect recent migration data and also include an additional allowance for migrants from the A8 Accession countries.