There is growing interest in the size and characteristics of Scotland’s population. One reason is that records are being broken. In the year ending on 30 June 2007, for example, the number of births was the highest since 1998-99 and exceeded the number of deaths by 1,100, the largest natural change since the year to 30 June 1993. The total population at 30 June 2007 was 5.144 million – the highest since 1983. Gains from migration were higher than in any year since our current records started in 1951. The increase in the population between mid-2006 and mid-2007 was 27,300 people – the biggest single year increase since 1946-47. In this year’s report, my colleagues and I have highlighted these and other statistics likely to be of special public interest.
Another reason for the growing interest is that 2007 saw Scotland’s first population target, in the Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy. It set the goal of matching the average population growth of the 15 pre-enlargement states of the European Union over the period from 2007 to 2017. So the 2007 population figure – 5.144 million – is the baseline against which that target will be monitored over the next decade.
We do not know enough about the reasons why people migrate to or from Scotland, or choose to have babies. During 2007, we saw the final results of an important research programme to find out more, jointly funded by the Scottish Government and the Economic and Social Research Council. Chapter 3 of this report is based on some of the most interesting findings on fertility, while Chapter 2 draws out more information from my department’s own statistical data. But they do not answer every question about why fertility is increasing and thus help us to predict whether the increase will continue. So I am glad that more research is in prospect.
At the same time, we are working hard to improve our information about migration, especially out-migration. Unlike some countries, the UK does not have a comprehensive system of recording migrants, particularly those leaving the country, nor any legal requirement to notify change of address. My department is currently investigating the use of registers and information from a range of administrative sources in order to provide more frequent, accurate and detailed statistics.