KEY POINTS
Population
Scotland’s population rose for the fifth year running in the year to 30 June 2007, by 27,300 to 5,144,200.
It is 1983 since there were more people living in Scotland.
There were around 1,100 more births than deaths in the year to 30 June 2007. In the 2007 calendar year, this difference was greater, with 1,800 more births than deaths.
Migration was the biggest contributor to the increase in population. In the year to 30 June 2007, there were net gains of around 8,800 from the rest of the UK and 16,800 from the rest of the world.
In-migrants to Scotland from every region of Great Britain exceeded out-migrants in the year to 30 June 2007.
Over the past 10 years, Scotland’s population has increased by around 61,000 (1.2 per cent), from 5.08 million to 5.14 million. While there were 9 per cent fewer people aged under 16, 2 per cent fewer aged 16-29 and 5 per cent fewer aged 30-44, there were more people aged 45 and over, particularly those aged 45-59 and 75 and over (14 and 13 per cent respectively).
The biggest increases in population in the last 10 years have been in West Lothian, East Lothian and Perth & Kinross while Inverclyde, Dundee City and Eilean Siar have accounted for the largest decreases over the same period.
Current projections suggest that Scotland’s population will rise to a high of 5.37 million in 2031 before slowly declining, falling below 5 million around 2076.
Births
There were 57,781 births in 2007, 2,091 (4 per cent) more than in 2006, and the highest since 1997. The number of births in 2007 was still well below the peak of over 100,000 per year in the early 1960s, and the level of around 65-70,000 per year between the mid-1970s and the early 1990s.
49 per cent of births in 2007 were to unmarried parents, compared with 38 per cent in 1997.
In 2007, the average age of the mother at childbirth was 29.4 compared to 27.4 in 1991, 26.1 in 1977 and 27.4 in 1964.
The total fertility rate rose to 1.73 in 2007, higher than the historic low of 1.48 in 2002 and the highest since 1982, though still much lower than the 1964 peak of 3.09 and the ‘replacement’ level of about 2.1.
Scotland’s total fertility rate in 2007 was the lowest of the four UK countries.
The average completed family size for women born in 1971 was 1.49 by the time they reached 35. For women born in 1951, the same figure was 1.94.
Deaths
There were 55,986 deaths in 2007. While this was 1.6 per cent higher than the total for 2006, it was the third lowest total recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855.
In 2007, the three most common causes of death were cancer (15,274 people – 27 per cent of deaths), ischaemic (coronary) heart disease (9,343 deaths – 17 per cent) and cerebrovascular disease (stroke) (5,333 deaths – 10 per cent).
The proportion of deaths caused by the three most common causes has fallen from 65 per cent in 1981 to 53 per cent in 2007. The proportion caused by ischaemic heart disease fell sharply from 29 to 17 per cent. Deaths from strokes also fell over the same period from 14 per cent of the total to 10 per cent, while deaths from cancer increased from 22 per cent to 27 per cent of all deaths.
Of people who died of cancer in 2007, more died from lung cancer (4,115) than any other type. A further 1,539 people died of bowel cancer, 1,067 of breast cancer and 793 of prostate cancer.
Some significant improvements have been achieved in age specific mortality rates over the last 25 years. For example, the rate for males aged 45-74 in 2007 was around 45 per cent lower than in 1981.
A male baby born around 2006 can expect to live for 74.8 years and a female baby for 79.7 years. This is projected to increase to 80.4 and 84.8 respectively for males and females born around 2031.
Expectation of life for people in Scotland is about 4 years lower than for the best-performing states in the European Union.
The total number of suicides and probable suicides (‘intentional self harm’ and ‘events of undetermined intent’) in 2007 was 838, a rise of 73 on 2006.
There were 272 infant deaths (deaths of children aged under 1) in 2007, 24 more than in 2006.
Stillbirths in Scotland have fallen from 13.1 per 1,000 births in 1971 to 5.6 in 2007. However, stillbirth rates in Scotland are higher than in most Western European countries.
Marriages
There were 29,866 marriages in Scotland in 2007, almost exactly the same as in 2006. The number of marriages in recent years has been significantly lower than the numbers in the early 1970s, when typically over 40,000 marriages took place each year.
For just over a quarter of the marriages in 2007 neither party was resident in Scotland. Almost half of those marriages took place at Gretna.
Divorced people accounted for over a quarter of people marrying in 2007, an increase from just under 6 per cent in 1971.
About 48 per cent of marriages in 2007 were religious ceremonies and about 52 per cent were civil ceremonies compared with 55 and 45 per cent respectively in 1997. In 2007, 7,987 civil ceremonies (27 per cent of all marriages and 52 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted at ‘approved places’ outwith registration offices – an option only introduced in 2002.
Divorces
There were 12,773 divorces in Scotland in 2007, 2 per cent fewer than in 2006.
In both 1997 and 2007 the median duration of marriage ending in divorce was 15 years. This figure was substantially lower for marriages ending in divorce in 1981, when the median duration was 9 years.
Civil Partnerships
There were 688 civil partnerships registered in 2007, 339 male and 349 female couples. That compared with 1,047 registered in 2006, the first full year of the new legal status.
Households and Housing
In 2007, 2.8 per cent of dwellings in Scotland were vacant and 1.4 per cent were second homes. Within Scotland, both figures were highest in remote rural areas.
Between 2006 and 2031, the number of households is projected to increase by 19 per cent to 2.7 million, an average of 17,600 additional households per year.
Most of the projected increase in the number of households is the result of the ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households, rather than an increase in the population.
The number of households is projected to increase most (by 35 per cent) between 2006 and 2031 in the Orkney Islands, West Lothian and City of Edinburgh. In only two council areas (Inverclyde and East Dunbartonshire) is the number of households projected to decrease over the same period.
Fertility
In 2007, 4 out of 5 births in Scotland were to Scots-born mothers. But Scots-born mothers accounted for 2 out of 5 of the increase in the numbers of births since 2006, and East European mothers accounted for 1 in 3.
In virtually all countries and societies more boys are born than girls. The records held by the Registrar General show that, over the past 150 years, the sex ratio at birth in Scotland has been just under 106 boys for every 100 girls.
The proportion of maternities in Scotland resulting in multiple births has remained relatively constant at just over 1 per cent throughout the last 150 years. On average, just over 1 per cent of multiple births have involved triplets or higher order multiples.
The first hundred years of civil registration show a gradual decline in births to unmarried parents from around 10 per cent in the 1860s to 4 per cent in the late 1950s. Since the 1960s, the proportion has increased steeply to the point where almost half of all children are born to unmarried parents.
The age profile of mothers in 2007 varied significantly by socio-economic class (as defined by occupation). For those allocated to ‘managerial and professional’ categories there was a particularly marked peak of childbearing in the 30-34 age group. By comparison, the peak childbearing age for those in ‘routine’ and semi-routine’ categories was 20-24.
In 2007, the average age of all mothers at the time of giving birth was 29.4 compared with 26.1 in 1977, 26.7 in 1987 and 28.7 in 1997.
Fertility levels are not uniform across the country. The urban hinterlands and the more rural areas tend to have higher than average rates of fertility. This may be associated with the availability of affordable family housing and lower female economic activity rates.
Since 2002 (when the annual number of births began to increase) the general fertility rate has increased from 48.1 to 54.8 births for every 1,000 females of childbearing age, a rise of 14 per cent.