Table B summarises the projected percentage changes in population and households for the four SDP areas and Scotland from 2006 to 2031.
Table B: Summary of percentage changes in population and household projections, 2006 to 2031
Percentage change 2006 to 2031 |
Glasgow & Clyde Valley |
Aberdeen City & Shire |
SESPlan |
TAYPlan |
Scotland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population |
-1% |
6% |
16% |
5% |
5% |
Children (0-15 years) |
-12% |
-10% |
6% |
-5% |
-7% |
Working Age1 |
-4% |
-4% |
14% |
0% |
0% |
Pensionable Age2 |
20% |
54% |
34% |
30% |
31% |
Households |
14% |
19% |
30% |
18% |
19% |
Headed by adult aged under 60 |
2% |
-5% |
19% |
2% |
4% |
Headed by adult aged 60 or over |
41% |
74% |
56% |
45% |
51% |
Headed by adult aged 85 or over |
134% |
177% |
142% |
163% |
158% |
Household Types |
|||||
1 adult |
46% |
46% |
59% |
43% |
49% |
1 adult, 1+ children |
38% |
28% |
64% |
42% |
44% |
2 adults |
15% |
34% |
32% |
22% |
13% |
2+ adults, 1+ children |
-37% |
-33% |
-19% |
-29% |
-32% |
3+ adults |
-33% |
-35% |
-10% |
-20% |
-29% |
Average household size 2006 |
2.19 |
2.17 |
2.20 |
2.15 |
2.19 |
Average household size 2031 |
1.89 |
1.92 |
1.96 |
1.92 |
1.93 |
Overall change in population
2.1 Between 2006 and 2031, the population is projected to increase in all SDP areas apart from Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area, which is projected to have a decrease of one per cent. SESplan SDP area is projected to have the biggest percentage increase of sixteen per cent. Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area is projected to have an increase of six per cent and TAYplan SDP area is projected to have an increase of five per cent.
Population age structure
2.2 For the projection period 2006 to 2031, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by six per cent in SESplan area, and decrease by between five and twelve percent in the other SDP areas.
2.3 The numbers of people of working age1 are projected to decrease by four per cent in Glasgow & Clyde Valley and Aberdeen City & Shire SDP areas, and increase by fourteen per cent in SESplan SDP area, with no change projected in TAYplan SDP area.
2.4 The number of people of pensionable age2 is projected to rise in all SDP areas, with the increase ranging from 20 per cent in Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area to 54 per cent in Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area.
Household numbers and size
2.5 The number of households in all SDP areas is projected to increase between 2006 and 2031. The projected increases are 14 per cent in Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area, 19 per cent in Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area, 30 per cent in SESplan SDP area and 18 per cent in TAYplan SDP area.
2.6 The average household size is projected to decrease over the same period of time in all SDP areas. The decreases are from 2.19 to 1.89 persons per household in Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area, from 2.17 to 1.92 in Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area, from 2.20 to 1.96 in SESplan SDP area, and from 2.15 to 1.92 in TAYplan SDP area.
2.7 The number of households is projected to increase more rapidly than projected changes in population. As an example, for Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area there is a small projected fall in population (of one per cent), whereas the number of households is projected to increase by fourteen per cent. This is due to projected changes in household structure with people more likely to live in smaller family groups in the future.
Household age groups
2.8 Households headed3 by people aged 60 or over are projected to show large increases for all SDP areas between 2006 and 2031 (from 41 per cent in Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area to 74 per cent in Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area).
2.9 Households headed by people aged under 60 are expected to change by a smaller amount, and vary more across the country. Small increases of two per cent are projected for Glasgow & Clyde Valley and TAYplan SDP areas, with a larger increase of nineteen per cent in SESplan SDP area. A decrease of five per cent is projected for Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area.
2.10 Households headed by someone aged 85 or over are projected to increase markedly in all SDP areas between 2006 and 2031, from 134 per cent in Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area to 177 per cent in Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area.
Household types
2.11 The number of households containing just one adult is projected to increase greatly between 2006 and 2031 in all SDP areas, ranging from a 43 per cent increase in TAYplan SDP area to a 59 per cent increase in SESplan SDP area.
2.12 Other small households are also projected to increase in number. The number of households containing two adults without children is projected to increase from 15 per cent in Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDP area to 34 per cent in Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area. The number of households containing one adult with children is also projected to increase, from 28 per cent in Aberdeen City & Shire SDP area to 64 per cent in SESplan SDP area.
2.13 In contrast, the number of larger households (containing two or more adults with children and containing three or more adults) is projected to show a decrease in numbers in all SDP areas.