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Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2010-based)

Table 6: Comparison between principal and variant population projections, by Council and NHS Board areas, 2010-2035

Area 2010 2035 Projected percentage population change (2010-2035)
Zero migration Low migration Low fertility Low life expectancy Principal High life expectancy High fertility High migration Zero migration Low migration Low fertility Low life expectancy Principal High life expectancy High fertility High migration
SCOTLAND 5,222,100 5,165,178 5,498,701 5,590,821 5,684,544 5,755,477 5,823,788 5,909,410 6,012,285 -1 5 7 9 10 12 13 15
Council areas
Aberdeen City 217,120 214,788 254,683 264,220 268,995 271,705 274,291 278,795 291,778 -1 17 22 24 25 26 28 34
Aberdeenshire 245,780 252,246 289,863 290,968 296,046 299,404 302,539 307,464 309,609 3 18 18 20 22 23 25 26
Angus 110,570 107,781 111,156 112,017 113,644 115,299 116,861 118,318 120,126 -3 1 1 3 4 6 7 9
Argyll & Bute 89,200 82,518 76,729 80,502 81,453 82,754 84,023 84,936 88,709 -7 -14 -10 -9 -7 -6 -5 -1
Clackmannanshire 50,630 51,689 55,930 55,856 56,940 57,629 58,268 59,218 59,218 2 10 10 12 14 15 17 17
Dumfries & Galloway 148,190 139,798 133,793 137,525 139,202 141,500 143,686 145,253 149,061 -6 -10 -7 -6 -5 -3 -2 1
Dundee City 144,290 142,920 144,177 148,764 151,811 153,697 155,526 158,035 162,959 -1 0 3 5 7 8 10 13
East Ayrshire 120,240 117,700 117,941 117,526 119,449 121,079 122,760 124,482 123,979 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 2 4 3
East Dunbartonshire 104,580 102,411 91,936 91,937 93,073 94,343 95,521 96,515 96,099 -2 -12 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -8
East Lothian 97,500 100,233 126,842 125,482 128,342 129,729 131,117 133,681 132,763 3 30 29 32 33 34 37 36
East Renfrewshire 89,540 91,316 87,596 86,669 88,131 89,262 90,307 91,554 90,400 2 -2 -3 -2 0 1 2 1
Edinburgh, City of 486,120 475,335 565,492 597,102 605,722 611,367 616,777 625,118 658,913 -2 16 23 25 26 27 29 36
Eilean Siar 26,190 23,977 21,717 22,750 22,776 23,220 23,645 23,660 24,698 -8 -17 -13 -13 -11 -10 -10 -6
Falkirk 153,280 155,072 164,454 163,635 166,561 168,688 170,747 173,297 172,972 1 7 7 9 10 11 13 13
Fife 365,020 366,351 381,334 387,788 394,663 399,721 404,642 410,545 416,699 0 4 6 8 10 11 12 14
Glasgow City 592,820 576,757 620,214 640,815 652,215 660,005 667,465 678,356 698,774 -3 5 8 10 11 13 14 18
Highland 221,630 216,242 243,004 248,554 251,923 255,257 258,548 261,826 267,602 -2 10 12 14 15 17 18 21
Inverclyde 79,770 76,074 65,000 64,567 65,363 66,488 67,604 68,270 68,104 -5 -19 -19 -18 -17 -15 -14 -15
Midlothian 81,140 82,925 89,214 88,203 89,915 91,017 92,028 93,637 92,398 2 10 9 11 12 13 15 14
Moray 87,720 87,992 90,504 93,435 95,104 96,367 97,595 99,084 102,268 0 3 7 8 10 11 13 17
North Ayrshire 135,180 131,605 124,306 124,834 126,745 128,761 130,660 132,295 132,219 -3 -8 -8 -6 -5 -3 -2 -2
North Lanarkshire 326,360 331,716 324,174 321,261 327,523 331,929 336,229 341,761 339,779 2 -1 -2 0 2 3 5 4
Orkney Islands 20,110 19,176 21,013 21,016 21,171 21,479 21,797 21,976 22,816 -5 4 5 5 7 8 9 13
Perth & Kinross 147,780 142,030 186,297 190,238 193,096 195,187 197,253 199,986 203,172 -4 26 29 31 32 33 35 37
Renfrewshire 170,250 166,448 164,269 163,732 166,480 168,822 171,079 173,624 173,571 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 2 2
Scottish Borders 112,870 109,541 118,409 121,345 123,087 124,824 126,447 127,982 131,068 -3 5 8 9 11 12 13 16
Shetland Islands 22,400 23,192 20,935 21,957 22,211 22,534 22,789 23,154 24,135 4 -7 -2 -1 1 2 3 8
South Ayrshire 111,440 103,170 103,801 105,358 106,482 108,146 109,795 110,778 112,530 -7 -7 -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 1
South Lanarkshire 311,880 309,735 323,342 321,437 326,925 331,234 335,391 340,326 338,615 -1 4 3 5 6 8 9 9
Stirling 89,850 89,939 98,092 101,244 103,163 104,292 105,390 106,967 110,413 0 9 13 15 16 17 19 23
West Dunbartonshire 90,570 89,415 83,027 81,642 83,224 84,393 85,525 86,863 85,700 -1 -8 -10 -8 -7 -6 -4 -5
West Lothian 172,080 185,086 199,457 198,442 203,109 205,345 207,483 211,654 211,138 8 16 15 18 19 21 23 23
NHS Board areas
Ayrshire & Arran 366,860 352,475 346,048 347,718 352,676 357,986 363,215 367,555 368,728 -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 1
Borders 112,870 109,541 118,409 121,345 123,087 124,824 126,447 127,982 131,068 -3 5 8 9 11 12 13 16
Dumfries & Galloway 148,190 139,798 133,793 137,525 139,202 141,500 143,686 145,253 149,061 -6 -10 -7 -6 -5 -3 -2 1
Fife 364,945 366,276 381,259 387,713 394,588 399,646 404,567 410,470 416,624 0 4 6 8 10 11 12 14
Forth Valley 293,386 296,326 318,102 320,361 326,290 330,235 334,031 339,108 342,229 1 8 9 11 13 14 16 17
Grampian 550,620 555,026 635,050 648,623 660,145 667,476 674,425 685,343 703,655 1 15 18 20 21 22 24 28
Greater Glasgow & Clyde 1,203,870 1,179,709 1,193,923 1,210,625 1,231,421 1,247,222 1,262,418 1,281,632 1,298,252 -2 -1 1 2 4 5 6 8
Highland 310,830 298,760 319,733 329,056 333,376 338,011 342,571 346,762 356,311 -4 3 6 7 9 10 12 15
Lanarkshire 562,477 564,740 566,212 562,012 572,090 579,831 587,280 596,214 593,367 0 1 0 2 3 4 6 5
Lothian 836,711 843,450 980,876 1,009,100 1,026,959 1,037,329 1,047,276 1,063,961 1,095,083 1 17 21 23 24 25 27 31
Orkney 20,110 19,176 21,013 21,016 21,171 21,479 21,797 21,976 22,816 -5 4 5 5 7 8 9 13
Shetland 22,400 23,192 20,935 21,957 22,211 22,534 22,789 23,154 24,135 4 -7 -2 -1 1 2 3 8
Tayside 402,641 392,732 441,631 451,020 458,552 464,184 469,641 476,340 486,258 -2 10 12 14 15 17 18 21
Western Isles 26,190 23,977 21,717 22,750 22,776 23,220 23,645 23,660 24,698 -8 -17 -13 -13 -11 -10 -10 -6

 

Note:
Data for each year of the projection period (2010-2035) for each variant by sex and single year of age is available in the Detailed Tables section of this publication on the National Records of Scotland website.

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