previous | contents | next
Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2010-based)
Annex H: Scenarios and assumptions for the 2010-based principal and seven variant projections for Scotland
| |
Fertility |
Life expectancy |
Migration |
| 1 |
Principal projection |
Principal |
Principal |
Principal |
| Standard 'single component' variants |
| 2 |
High fertility |
High |
Principal |
Principal |
| 3 |
Low fertility |
Low |
Principal |
Principal |
| 4 |
High life expectancy |
Principal |
High |
Principal |
| 5 |
Low life expectancy |
Principal |
Low |
Principal |
| 6 |
High migration |
Principal |
Principal |
High |
| 7 |
Low migration |
Principal |
Principal |
Low |
| Special case scenario |
| 8 |
Zero migration |
Principal |
Principal |
Zero |
| |
Assumptions |
Long-term Fertility (Total Fertility Rate - TFR) |
Life Expectancy Males (2035) |
Life Expectancy Females (2035) |
Long-term Migration |
| Standard variants |
High variant |
1.90 |
83.3 |
86.7 |
+26,000 |
| Principal |
1.70 |
80.9 |
85.1 |
+17,500 |
| Low variant |
1.50 |
78.4 |
83.5 |
+9,000 |
| Special case scenario |
Zero migration |
1.70 |
80.9 |
85.1 |
0 |
previous | contents | next