Scotland’s Changing Population

National Records of Scotland (NRS) today publishes ‘Scotland’s Population 2012 – the Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends’.

This report is a compendium that brings together key demographic information from a range of publications produced by NRS. It has been produced annually since it was first published in 1855.

Publishing his first annual report, Registrar General Tim Ellis said today:

“As Registrar General, I am pleased to publish this, the 158th edition of the Registrar General’s Annual Review. National Records of Scotland has responsibility for demographic statistics and we take pride in the quality of the statistics we produce. This latest report follows on from our recent releases of information derived from the 2011 Census and provides data which will support and inform policy makers and service providers as they work towards planning for Scotland’s future.

“Our statistics show that in 2012 Scotland’s population reached an all-time high of 5,313,600. This increase is mostly because more people are coming into Scotland than leaving it, and also because we are seeing more births than deaths.

“As well as a growing population, the report also shows that the population is continuing to age, life expectancy is increasing and the number of households is continuing to rise. However the picture is varied across areas in Scotland.

“Civil registration records in Scotland show that in recent years, there have been more births than deaths. This was still the case last year but the gap has narrowed, with a slight decline in the number of births and a slight increase in the number of deaths. However, levels of both births and deaths continue to be relatively small in historical terms. Marriages and Civil Partnership also increased in 2012.”

The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends shows that:

• The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2012 was 5,313,600 (based on the 2011 census), the highest ever.
• There were 58,027  births registered in Scotland in 2012. This was 563 (1.0 per cent) fewer births than in 2011.
• There were 54,937 deaths registered in Scotland in 2012. This was 1,276 (2.4 per cent) more than in 2011.
• In the year to 30 June 2012, 81,000 people came to Scotland (from the rest of the UK and overseas) and 68,300 left Scotland (to the rest of the UK and overseas). Giving a net-gain of 12,700, lower than the previous year’s high of 27,000. This change is mostly due to a lower net gain of people from overseas.
• There were 30,534 marriages in Scotland in 2012, 1,399 (4.8 per cent) more than in 2011. The number of civil partnerships also increased by 20 to 574 (3.6 per cent increase).
• In 2012, there were 495 adoptions recorded in Scotland. This is one fewer than in 2011.
• In mid-2012, there were 2.39 million households in Scotland, which is an increase of around 175,000 over the past ten years.

Population

The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2012 was 5,313,600 (based on the 2011 census), the highest ever.

The population of Scotland increased by around 13,700 in the 12 months between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2012, an increase of 0.3 per cent.

The increase in the population in the 12 months to 30 June 2012 was mainly due to:

• 12,700 more people coming to Scotland than leaving; and
• 4,223 more births than deaths.

The age of the population of Scotland was as follows:

• 17 per cent of people were aged under 16
• 66 per cent of people were aged 16 to 64
• 17 per cent of people were aged 65 and over.

Scotland’s population has been fairly stable over the past 50 years. It last peaked at 5.24 million in 1974 before falling to 5.05 million in 2002. It then increased each year to reach a new peak of 5.31 million in 2012. That increase has mainly been the result of more people moving to Scotland than leaving although net migration in the latest year has gone down compared with recent years.

2010-based population projections suggest that the population of Scotland will rise to 5.76 million by 2035 and that the population will age significantly, with the number of people aged 65 and over increasing by 63 per cent, from 0.88 million to 1.43 million. New projections based on 2012 estimates will be released in November 2013.

Births

There were 58,027 births registered in Scotland in 2012.

There were 563 (1.0 per cent) fewer births in 2012 than in 2011. This is the fourth year the number of births has fallen (following increases in each of the previous six years).

The average age of mothers has increased from 27.4 in 1991 to 29.7 in 2012. Similarly, the average age of fathers has increased from 30.0 in 1991 to 32.5 in 2012.

The percentage of babies born to unmarried couples is 51.3 per cent in 2012. Most births are registered by both parents.

Eighty five per cent of mothers who gave birth in Scotland in 2012 were born in the UK, including 76 per cent who were born in Scotland. 7 per cent of mothers had been born elsewhere in the European Union (EU), including 4 per cent from the countries which joined the EU in 2004 (such as Poland).

For 15 per cent of births in 2012 neither parent was born in Scotland (compared with 9 per cent in 2003) and for 10 per cent of births neither parent was born in the UK (compared with 3 per cent in 2003).

Deaths

There were 54,937 deaths registered in Scotland in 2012. This was 1,276 (2.4 per cent) more than in 2011. An increase was not unexpected because 2011 had the lowest total recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855.

The main causes of deaths were:

• cancer, which caused 15,864 deaths (29 per cent of all deaths);
• ischaemic (coronary) heart disease, which caused 7,541 deaths (14 per cent of all deaths);
• respiratory system diseases (such as pneumonia), which caused 7,168 deaths (13 per cent of all deaths); and
• cerebrovascular disease (stroke), which caused 4,475 deaths (8 per cent of all deaths).

The percentage of deaths caused by coronary heart disease has fallen from 29 per cent in 1980-1982 to 14 per cent in 2012, and the percentage for strokes has reduced from 14 per cent to 8 per cent, but the percentage of deaths caused by cancer has risen from 22 per cent to 29 per cent. However, the average age of death from cancer has risen, and the age-standardised death rate for cancer (which takes account of the change in the age-distribution of the population) has fallen by about a sixth since the start of the 1980s.

Death rates from cancer, coronary heart disease and stroke in Scotland are well above the rates for the other countries in the UK.

There were 274 stillbirths and 217 infant deaths in 2012. Death rates for both have improved significantly. The rate of stillbirths has dropped from 13.1 for every 1,000 births (live births and stillbirths) in 1971 to 4.7 in 2012. The infant death rate fell from 19.9 for every 1,000 live births in 1971 to 3.7 in 2012.

Life expectancy

Based on 2001 Census population estimates, life expectancy in Scotland has improved greatly over the last 25 years, increasing from 69.1 years for men and 75.3 years for women born around 1981 to 76.1 years for men and 80.6 years for women born around 2010.

Life expectancy estimates using population estimates based on the 2011 Census will be published in spring 2014.

Migration (people moving into and out of the country)

In the last half of the 20th century, more people tended to leave Scotland than move here. However, since 2002, this has changed.

In the year to 30 June 2012, the number of people moving to Scotland from other parts of the UK, and the number moving out of Scotland to other parts of the UK were as follows.

• 45,100 people came to Scotland from the rest of the UK; and
• 42,100 people left Scotland for other parts of the UK.

This movement of people increased the population by around 3,000 people, similar to recent years.

In the year to 30 June 2012, the number of people moving to Scotland from overseas and the number moving out of Scotland to go overseas were as follows.

• 35,900 people came to Scotland from overseas; and
• 26,200 people left Scotland to go overseas.

This movement of people increased the population by around 9,700, lower than the net gains from recent years.

Most people moving to and from Scotland are young – between 16 and 34, with smaller peaks for children under 5 moving to and from Scotland.

The 2011 Census results show that:

• Of the 7 per cent (369,000) of people in Scotland who were not born in the UK, 15 per cent (55,000) were born in Poland, and 6 per cent (23,000) were born in each of India and the Republic of Ireland.
• Over half (55 per cent) of people living in Scotland who were born abroad arrived in the UK between 2004 and March 2011.

Marriages and civil partnerships

There were 30,534 marriages in Scotland in 2012. This includes 7,259 marriages (24 per cent) where neither the bride nor groom lived in Scotland, but does not include people living in Scotland who marry elsewhere.

The average age at which people marry for the first time has increased by around two years since 2002, to 32.9 years for men and 31.0 years for women.

Just over half of all marriages (51 per cent) were civil ceremonies, carried out by a registrar – compared with just under one-third (31 per cent) in 1971. During 2012, 8,144 civil ceremonies were conducted at approved places. This is compared to 3,465 in 2003, the first full year of these arrangements.

Most religious marriages were carried out by Church of Scotland ministers (5,508), with clergy from the Roman Catholic Church carrying out 1,827 marriages. Celebrants from the Humanist Society of Scotland, authorised to carry out marriages since 2005, officiated at 3,052 marriages compared with 2,486 in 2011.

In 2012 there were 574 civil partnerships – 257 male couples and 317 female couples.

Adoptions

In 2012, there were 495 adoptions recorded in Scotland. The number of adoptions each year is around a quarter of what it used to be in the early 1970s. 

Households and housing

In mid-2012, there were 2.39 million households in Scotland, which is an increase of around 175,000 over the past ten years.

The number of households has been increasing over the years, but this growth has slowed since 2007. There was an increase of 10,778 households from 2011 to 2012, which was the lowest seen in the last ten years.

The increase in the number of households is the result of an ageing population, and more people living alone or in smaller households, as well as an increase in the population.

Thirty-eight per cent of dwellings in Scotland are entitled to a Council Tax discount because there is only one adult living there (alone, with children or with those ‘disregarded’ for Council Tax purposes). The proportion of people living alone is higher in urban areas and in more deprived areas.

Across Scotland in 2012, 2.9 per cent of homes were empty and 1.5 per cent were second homes, though there are wide differences across the country. There are more empty homes in more deprived areas, and more second homes in the remote rural areas.

There are higher proportions of flats in urban areas, and in more deprived areas. The average number of rooms per dwelling is lower in more deprived areas, and in urban areas.

The full publication, ‘Scotland’s Population 2012 – the Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends’, is available on the NRS website