Excess deaths fall in 2023

After three years of excess deaths driven by the pandemic, deaths in Scotland returned to expected levels in 2023, according to new statistics from National Records of Scotland. 

There were 63,445 deaths registered in 2023, 1% more than in 2022. Deaths were broadly in line with expected levels using a new methodology which takes into account the growing and aging population.

The latest report from NRS also found that the number of births had fallen to the lowest figure ever, with 45,935 live births being registered in 2023, 2% fewer than in 2022. 

The Total Fertility Rate fell to 1.30 from 1.33 in the previous year, and is also at its lowest ever level. For a population to replace itself, this rate needs to be around 2.1. There have been more deaths than births registered in Scotland for nine consecutive years .

The infant death rate rose to 4.0 for every thousand live births.). This remains relatively low in historic terms but is the highest rate since 2011. 

Phillipa Haxton, Head of Vital Events Statistics, said:

“The publication of these annual figures for 2023 gives us an opportunity to step back and look at the bigger picture. 

“We’re seeing the number of excess deaths falling after three years when they were higher due to the impact of the pandemic. 

“The number of births has fallen, and the total fertility rate is the lowest ever recorded reflecting the move towards smaller families.”

The analysis also shows excess deaths broken down by age group. In 2023, deaths were at lower than expected levels in those aged up to 64 and 65 to 79. Deaths in those aged 80 and over were 1.6% above the expected level.

26,753 marriages were registered in Scotland in 2023, 11% fewer than in 2022 and now at a similar level to that seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

719 civil partnerships were registered in 2023, the highest number since 2006. 82% of these were mixed sex.

Background

National Records of Scotland (NRS) is responsible for producing statistics on Scotland’s population. 

The data behind this release can be found on the NRS website at Vital Events Reference Tables 2023.

Excess deaths is the difference between the observed number of deaths and the number of deaths that would have been expected in that period, based on historical data. The expected number of deaths is estimated from age-specific mortality rates rather than death counts, so trends in population size and age structure are taken into account. This new method for calculating excess deaths was adopted by statistical agencies across the UK in February 2024. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the ONS website.

Population estimates for 2022, as well as rebased population estimates for 2011 to 2021 were published earlier this year. Rates (including total fertility rates) for the relevant years have been updated to reflect these new population estimates and may therefore differ from those previously published.

The total fertility rate is the average number of children that a group of women would expect to have if they experienced the observed age specific fertility rates in each of their childbearing years.

Official statistics are produced by professionally independent statistical staff. General information about population statistics can be accessed in the About our Statistics section of the NRS website.

Media enquiries should be directed to: 
Susie Rose
NRS Communications
[email protected]

Further information about the statistics is available from:
NRS Statistics Customer Services    
Email: [email protected]