2010 Research Findings

The research identified the fertility, mortality and migration information that would be needed to produce reasonable population projections at small area level.

Fertility

• The use of total fertility rates estimated from births, together with the national age-specific pattern, should be sufficient for most purposes. 
• Local age–specific fertility rates can add some accuracy to the projections, so the provision of ‘age of mother’ data at some level of detail would be beneficial. 
• If local age-specific fertility rates are used, the age/sex structure of the underlying population data must be as accurate as possible, especially in areas with ‘special’ populations, such as students.

Mortality

• The use of standardised mortality ratios estimated from deaths, together with the national age-specific pattern should be sufficient for most purposes. 
• Local age–specific mortality rates can add some accuracy to the projections, so the provision of ‘age at death’ data at some level of detail would be beneficial. 

Migration

• The recent net impact of migration at each age and sex can be estimated from successive population estimates without the need for direct counts of local migration.
• Population projections will not be significantly helped by standard estimates of migration flows for data zones.
• Migration data would be useful for other purposes, and could be defined with other purposes in mind, including flows between data zones so that aggregated data could be properly derived.    

The results of the research are described in Fife Multi-Member Ward Projections – Comparison of Different Scenarios Using POPGROUP (PDF 589kb).

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