3.1.1 The results of the 2010-based projections show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.22 million in 2010 to 5.76 million in 2035, and continuing to rise in the future. Figure 1 shows the results for Scotland for 25 years ahead, up to 2035.
Figure 1: Estimated population of Scotland (2010-based), actual and projected, 1951-2035
Footnote
1) 2010-based projection.
3.1.2 A key point is that, in parallel with the projected rise in the size of the population over the next 25 years, Scotland's population is projected to age markedly.
3.1.3 Further details on the national projection results are available on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
3.2.1 The populations of 22 of the 32 Council areas in Scotland are projected to increase and 10 to decrease by 2035 as shown in Table 1. The map at Figure 2a and the chart at Figure 2b show the projected percentage change in population between 2010 and 2035 for each Council area. In general, most Councils adjacent or close to City of Edinburgh and Aberdeen City are projected to have a relatively large increase compared with other large urban areas, for example Glasgow City and Dundee City. Other areas in the west, such as Inverclyde, East and West Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire are all projected to decline.
3.2.2 The Council areas which are projected to show the largest relative increases over this period are East Lothian (+33 per cent), Perth & Kinross (+32 per cent), City of Edinburgh (+26 per cent), and Aberdeen City (+25 per cent). The largest relative population decreases are projected in Inverclyde (-17 per cent), Eilean Siar (-11 per cent), East Dunbartonshire (-10 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-7 per cent). Table 3 shows the projected percentage change in population for selected years.
3.2.3 The overall projected population change is a result of a combination of natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) and migration. The relative importance of each factor differs between areas. Table A compares the projected rates of natural change and migration across Council areas between 2010 and 2035. In most areas of projected population increase, it is due to increases through natural change and migration, but in Highland, Scottish Borders, Orkney Islands, Angus, East Ayrshire, and Shetland Islands, the population gain over this 25 year period is attributable to gains from migration alone. North Lanarkshire is the only Council area where the population is projected to increase (due to more births than deaths) despite net out-migration.
3.2.4 Similarly some areas of projected population decline, such as Inverclyde, East and West Dunbartonshire, are projected to experience decreases from both migration and natural change. In East Renfrewshire the projected population decline is due to net out-migration despite more births than deaths. In contrast, in areas such as Eilean Siar, Argyll & Bute, North and South Ayrshire, Dumfries & Galloway, and Renfrewshire, the population decline is due to more deaths than births despite net in-migration.
Table A: Components of projected population change for Council areas, 2010-2035
| Area | Natural change1 | Net migration2 | Percentage projected population change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTLAND | 1.3 | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| Council areas sorted3 | |||
| Inverclyde | -7.2 | -9.4 | -16.7 |
| Eilean Siar | -16.7 | 5.3 | -11.3 |
| East Dunbartonshire | -4.0 | -5.8 | -9.8 |
| Argyll & Bute | -7.8 | 0.6 | -7.2 |
| West Dunbartonshire | -1.5 | -5.3 | -6.8 |
| North Ayrshire | -4.7 | 0.0 | -4.7 |
| Dumfries & Galloway | -7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 |
| South Ayrshire | -7.8 | 4.8 | -3.0 |
| Renfrewshire | -1.0 | 0.2 | -0.8 |
| East Renfrewshire | 1.0 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| Shetland Islands | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| East Ayrshire | -1.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| North Lanarkshire | 2.4 | -0.7 | 1.7 |
| Angus | -4.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 |
| South Lanarkshire | 0.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Dundee City | 2.4 | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| Orkney Islands | -6.6 | 13.4 | 6.8 |
| Fife | 1.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| Moray | 0.9 | 9.0 | 9.9 |
| Falkirk | 2.0 | 8.0 | 10.1 |
| Scottish Borders | -3.4 | 14.0 | 10.6 |
| Glasgow City | 3.7 | 7.6 | 11.3 |
| Midlothian | 4.2 | 7.9 | 12.2 |
| Clackmannanshire | 3.6 | 10.3 | 13.8 |
| Highland | -1.0 | 16.2 | 15.2 |
| Stirling | 3.1 | 13.0 | 16.1 |
| West Lothian | 10.8 | 8.5 | 19.3 |
| Aberdeenshire | 5.6 | 16.2 | 21.8 |
| Aberdeen City | 6.6 | 18.5 | 25.1 |
| Edinburgh, City of | 4.7 | 21.1 | 25.8 |
| Perth & Kinross | 1.8 | 30.3 | 32.1 |
| East Lothian | 9.4 | 23.7 | 33.1 |
Footnotes
1) Projected natural change between 2010 and 2035 per 100 population at 2010.
2) Projected change due to migration between 2010 and 2035 per 100 population at 2010.
3) Ordered by projected population change.
Figure 2a: Projected percentage change in population, (2010 based), by Council area, 2010-2035 (Map)
Figure 2b: Projected percentage change in population (2010-based), by Council area, 2010-2035 (Chart)
3.3.1 There are also differences in the size of the projected changes in the populations of NHS Board areas over the next 25 years. This is illustrated in the map at Figure 3a and the chart at Figure 3b, both of which show the projected percentage change in the population of NHS Board areas between 2010 and 2035.
3.3.2 The population of eleven of the NHS Board areas are projected to increase and three to decrease. The areas with the largest relative projected increases are Lothian (+24 per cent), Grampian (+21 per cent), and Tayside (+15 per cent). The areas with projected decreases are Western Isles (-11 per cent), Dumfries & Galloway (-5 per cent), and Ayrshire & Arran (-2 per cent). Table 3 shows the projected percentage change in population for selected years.
Figure 3a: Projected percentage change in population, (2010 based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035 (Map)
Figure 3b: Projected percentage change in population (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035 (Chart)
3.4 Age Structure Across Scotland
3.4.1 As well as wide differences in the projected size of the population for different areas, there are large differences in the projected age structure. Table 2 gives detailed population projections by age group, and Table 3 gives the changes for selected age bands. For Scotland as a whole, the number of children aged 0-15 is projected to increase by three per cent from 0.91 million in 2010 to 0.94 million by 2035. The number of people of working age is projected to increase by seven per cent from 3.27 million to 3.50 million, and the number of people of pensionable age to increase by 26 per cent from 1.04 million to 1.32 million.
3.4.2 These changes take into account the increases in the state pension age which will rise from 60 to 65 for women between 2010 and 2020 and then from 65 to 66 for both men and women between 2024 and 2026. A further increase to 68 for both men and women will occur between 2034 and 2046.
3.4.3 The number of children aged 0-15 is projected to increase in half of the 32 Council areas by 2035. The largest relative increases are projected in East Lothian (+41 per cent), Perth & Kinross (+32 per cent), and Aberdeen City (+24 per cent). The largest declines are projected for Eilean Siar (-34 per cent), Inverclyde (-27 per cent), and East Dunbartonshire (-23 per cent), as shown in Figure 4a.
3.4.4 There are also differences in the size of the working age population projected for 2035 for Council areas. Figure 4b and Table 3 show the percentage change in the working age population between 2010 and 2035, and include the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change to 66 for both men and women by 2026. Of course this is the state retirement age and in practice people will retire at a range of ages. The working age population is projected to increase in 17 Council areas by 2035, increasing the most in Perth & Kinross (+33 per cent), East Lothian (+29 per cent), and City of Edinburgh (+28 per cent). A decrease is projected in the remaining 15 Council areas ranging from a decrease of -24 per cent in Inverclyde to -1 per cent in Orkney Islands.
Figure 4a: Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2010-based), by Council area, 2010-2035
Figure 4b: Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2010-based), by Council area, 2010-2035
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent changes of both male and female state pension age to 68 by 2046.
3.4.5 There are also differences between Council areas in terms of the projected percentage change in the population of pensionable age (taking into account the change in state retirement age), as Figure 4c shows. The population of pensionable age is projected to increase in all Council areas by 2035. The largest relative increases are projected to be in West Lothian (+52 per cent), Aberdeenshire (+50 per cent), and Shetland Isles (+48 per cent).
Figure 4c: Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age1 (2010 based), by Council area, 2010-2035
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent changes of both male and female state pension age to 68 by 2046.
3.4.6 By 2035 the Scottish population aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 82 per cent. It is assumed to increase in all Council areas, ranging from a projected increase of 36 per cent in Glasgow City to a projected increase of 146 per cent in West Lothian, as shown in Figure 4d.
Figure 4d: Projected percentage change in population of 75+ (2010-based), by Council area, 2010-2035
3.4.7 There are similar variations by NHS Board area. Figure 5a, Figure 5b, Figure 5c and Figure 5d show the projected percentage change in the number of children (aged 0-15), people of working age, people of pensionable age, and people aged 75 and over, by NHS Board areas. The number of children is projected to decrease in half of NHS Board areas (Ayrshire & Arran, Dumfries & Galloway, Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Lanarkshire, Orkney, Shetland, and Western Isles) and to increase in the other half. The population of working age is projected to decrease in six NHS Board areas (Ayrshire & Arran, Dumfries & Galloway, Lanarkshire, Orkney, Shetland, and Western Isles) and to increase in the other eight. The population of pensionable age is projected to increase in all NHS Board areas, ranging from an increase of 15 per cent in Dumfries & Galloway to 48 per cent in Shetland. The population of people aged 75 and over is also projected to increase in all NHS Board areas, with the largest projected increase in Shetland (+130 per cent), and the smallest increase in Greater Glasgow & Clyde (+56 per cent).
Figure 5a: Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035
Figure 5b: Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
Figure 5c: Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age1 (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent changes of both male and female state pension age to 68 by 2046.
Figure 5d: Projected percentage change in population of 75+ (2010-based), by NHS Board area, 2010-2035
3.4.8 Table B summarises these changes, moving from the area with the greatest projected population decrease (Inverclyde) to the area with the largest increase (East Lothian). In general the decreases in population are largely associated with large decreases in children and working age population, while increases are associated with large increases in the pensionable aged population.
Table B: Projected percentage change in population (2010-based), by broad age group and Council areas, 2010-2035
| Area | All ages | Children (0-15) | Working Ages1 | Pensionable Ages1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTLAND | 10.2 | 3.2 | 7.1 | 26.2 |
| Council areas sorted2 | ||||
| Inverclyde | -16.7 | -27.0 | -23.5 | 11.5 |
| Eilean Siar | -11.3 | -33.6 | -19.5 | 22.5 |
| East Dunbartonshire | -9.8 | -22.8 | -17.9 | 22.1 |
| Argyll & Bute | -7.2 | -8.7 | -14.4 | 9.8 |
| West Dunbartonshire | -6.8 | -14.4 | -12.2 | 17.2 |
| North Ayrshire | -4.7 | -10.6 | -11.3 | 17.5 |
| Dumfries & Galloway | -4.5 | -6.1 | -13.1 | 15.4 |
| South Ayrshire | -3.0 | -8.1 | -8.6 | 13.6 |
| Renfrewshire | -0.8 | -7.3 | -5.3 | 18.9 |
| East Renfrewshire | -0.3 | -7.8 | -7.1 | 25.7 |
| Shetland Islands | 0.6 | -18.5 | -8.8 | 47.5 |
| East Ayrshire | 0.7 | -4.3 | -5.2 | 22.1 |
| North Lanarkshire | 1.7 | -7.4 | -2.2 | 25.0 |
| Angus | 4.3 | -0.6 | -2.8 | 25.1 |
| South Lanarkshire | 6.2 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 29.6 |
| Dundee City | 6.5 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 |
| Orkney Islands | 6.8 | -4.6 | -0.7 | 34.5 |
| Fife | 9.5 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 27.5 |
| Moray | 9.9 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 27.0 |
| Falkirk | 10.1 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 30.4 |
| Scottish Borders | 10.6 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 32.2 |
| Glasgow City | 11.3 | 1.5 | 13.2 | 13.6 |
| Midlothian | 12.2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 30.4 |
| Clackmannanshire | 13.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 39.4 |
| Highland | 15.2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 36.9 |
| Stirling | 16.1 | 9.6 | 13.6 | 29.5 |
| West Lothian | 19.3 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 52.1 |
| Aberdeenshire | 21.8 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 49.7 |
| Aberdeen City | 25.1 | 24.5 | 25.3 | 25.0 |
| Edinburgh, City of | 25.8 | 10.0 | 27.7 | 31.9 |
| Perth & Kinross | 32.1 | 31.7 | 32.7 | 30.6 |
| East Lothian | 33.1 | 41.4 | 28.6 | 37.9 |
Footnotes
1) Pensionable age is 65 for men, 60 for women until 2010; between 2010 and 2020 pensionable age for women increases to 65. Between 2024 and 2046, state pension age will increase from 65 years to 68 years for both sexes.
2) Ordered by projected population change.
3.4.9 The preceding paragraphs describe the projected percentage change by administrative area. It is also useful to look at the existing and projected age structure of the different areas. Figure 6a and Figure 6b, and Figure 7a and Figure 7b show the proportion of the population who are children (aged 0-15), of working age and of pensionable age in 2010 and 2035 for Council and NHS Board areas respectively. The projected proportion of the population of Scotland of pensionable age increases from 20 per cent in 2010 to 23 per cent in 2035. The pattern is similar in nearly all areas. Amongst Council areas in 2010, Dumfries & Galloway and Argyll & Bute (both 26 per cent), Eilean Siar and South Ayrshire (both 25 per cent) have the highest proportions of people of pensionable age, and Glasgow City (16 per cent), West Lothian and City of Edinburgh (both 17 per cent) the lowest. The projected picture by 2035 is fairly similar. Eilean Siar is projected to have the highest percentage of pensioners (35 per cent) by this time, followed by Dumfries & Galloway (31 per cent). By 2035 the Council areas projected to have the lowest proportion of pensioners are Glasgow City (16 per cent), Aberdeen City (17 per cent), and City of Edinburgh (18 per cent).
Figure 6a: Age structure of Council areas in 2010: children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent changes of both male and female state pension age to 68 by 2046.
Figure 6b: Projected age structure of Council areas in 2035 (2010-based): children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent changes of both male and female state pension age to 68 by 2046.
3.4.10 For NHS Board areas a comparable pattern can be seen. In 2010, Dumfries & Galloway NHS Board area has the highest proportion of its population of pensionable age (26 per cent), but by 2035, Western Isles is projected to have the highest proportion at 35 per cent, followed by Dumfries & Galloway (31 per cent). The area with the lowest proportion of population of pensionable age in 2010 is Lothian (18 per cent), and in 2035 the proportion of pensionable age is still lowest in Lothian (19 per cent). A key point from all four charts is that the population in nearly all areas is projected to age by 2035, and it is important to note that the existing age structure of the area in the base year has an impact on the age structure for future years.
Figure 7a: Age structure of NHS Board areas in 2010: children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent changes of both male and female state pension age to 68 by 2046.
Figure 7b: Projected age structure of NHS Board areas in 2035 (2010-based): children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Footnote
1) Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent changes of both male and female state pension age to 68 by 2046.