Administrative Data Based Population Estimates using version 3 methodology 2016-2018

Last Update: 29 August 2023

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Disclaimer: These statistical research outputs are not the OFFICIAL STATISTICS for Population Estimates for Scotland. The Official Statistics can be found in the statistics and data section of National Records of Scotland’s website.

This publication reports on the results of research into how population estimates might be produced using a range of administrative data.

Any presentation or use of these research outputs should make clear to users the nature and purpose of the statistics.

Key Findings

The aim of this statistical research is to create population estimates using only a range of administrative data. This research is part of the evidence base to support future developments in Scotland’s demographic statistics. 

This research is compared with the National Statistics Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYE), which start by using the latest census population estimates and then adjust for future years using data on births, deaths and migration. MYE are published by the National Records of Scotland each year. 

The aim of this publication is to present the new version 3 methodology for the Administrative Data Based Population Estimates (ABPE).

• The changes in methodology have led to a decrease in the Administrative Data Based Population Estimates for 2016, and an increase for 2017 and 2018.
• The Administrative Data Based Population Estimates remain broadly similar to the Mid-Year Estimates across the three years.
• Changes to data and linking methods increased the estimates, while the estimates were decreased by changes to business rules around which persons to include in the estimates.
• School-aged children are less affected by the methodology changes than adults.

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Contact Us

Please get in touch if you need any further information, or have any suggestions for improvement.

Lead Statistician: David Rowley

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