National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2018-based)

Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2018-based)

National Statistics LogoLast update: 24 March 2020
Next update: TBC

Statistics on the projected future population of councils, NHS Boards, Strategic Development Plan areas and National Park areas.

Report

(PDF 3 MB)

 

Data (included in Report)
(Excel    CSV)

Interactive Charts

 

 

Charts (Included in Report)
(Excel    CSV)

Methodology

(PDF 1 MB)

 

Summary Datasets for each area

Metadata

(PDF 24 KB)

 

Detailed Datasets by age and sex

Key Findings

  • Projected population change varies across Scotland. Over half of Scotland’s councils (18 out of 32) are projected to increase by mid-2028. These are mostly urban areas, located in the central belt. The fastest growing areas are in the East surrounding the City of Edinburgh.
  • Population decline is projected to mainly be in the West and South West of the country. More councils are projected to experience population decline than in previous projections (14 councils now, compared to 8 councils in the previous 2016-based projections).
  • Migration continues to drive projected increases in population in most areas. By mid-2028, 30 council areas are projected to have more people arriving than leaving. Overall 18 councils are projected to increase in population, as natural decline (more deaths than births) exceeds net migration in some areas. 
  • In most areas, there is projected to be more deaths than births, contributing to population decline. Only five councils are projected to have natural population growth, with more births than deaths over the 10 years to mid-2028.
  • Scotland’s population is projected to age, with the population of people aged 75 years and older projected to increase in all areas.

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Telephone: (0131) 314 4299
E-mail: [email protected]

Lead Statistician: Denise Patrick

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