2015

National Records of Scotland reveal most popular names in 2015

Jack and Emily were the most popular first forenames for babies whose births were registered in 2015, National Records of Scotland (NRS) announced today. Jack was the top boys’ name for an eighth consecutive year, and Emily was the top girls’ name for the second year running.

Oliver rose from fourth to become the second most popular boys' name, with James falling one place to third and Lewis down one place in fourth. Alexander climbed five places to fifth. The rest of the boys’ Top Ten was Charlie (up two places to sixth), Logan (down two places to seventh), Lucas (up one place to eighth), Harris (up three places to ninth) and three names which together were joint tenth: Jacob (up nine places); Finlay (up five places) and Daniel (down four places). Harris, Jacob and Finlay were all entrants to the boys' Top Ten; Noah (down seven places to fourteenth) dropped out of it.

The fastest climbers within the boys’ Top Twenty were Jacob, Alexander and Finlay.There were three entrants to the boys’ Top Twenty: Leo (up 11 places to 13th), Alfie (up 6 places to 17th) and Callum (up 1 place to 20th), 

The top four girls’ names were in exactly the same order as in 2014. Sophie was again the second most popular (having been top from 2005 to 2013), Olivia was third and Isla was fourth. Ava rose one place to fifth, and Jessica fell one place to sixth. Amelia remained in seventh place. Ella rose three places to eighth. Lucy (down one place to ninth) and Lily (down one place to tenth) made up the rest of the girls’ Top Ten. Ella was the only entrant to the girls’ Top Ten; Elllie (down four places to fourteenth) was the only name to drop out of it.

The fastest climbers within the girls’ Top Twenty were Anna (up four places to 16th), Ella (up three places to eighth) and Emma (up three places to 15th). There was one entrant to the girls’ Top Twenty: Eva (up four places to 18th).

Big climbers within the 2015 baby name top fifty charts include:

• Leo (up 11 places to 13th)
• Brodie (up 12 places to 31st)
• Harrison (up 13 places to 35th)
• Georgia (up 12 places to 27th)
• Rosie (up 15 places to 35th)

National Records of Scotland registered the births of 25,970 boys and 24,490 girls in the period covered by these figures. Parents chose 3,149 different first forenames for boys and 4,214 different first forenames for girls. In total, 1,977 boys and 2,714 girls were given first forenames that were unique (in the period covered by these figures). The numbers of different names, and of unique names, were well above the levels of 10, 20 or 40 years ago.

The top fifty boys’ first names accounted for 41 per cent of all those registered and the top fifty girls’ first names accounted for 39 per cent of the registrations. Jack was the first name of only 2.0 per cent of the boys, and Emily was the first name of just 1.9 per cent of the girls.

The full publication Babies' Names 2015 is available on this website.

An Infographic and two Data Visualisations are available for this publication on the NRS website.

Provisional figures for births, deaths and other vital events registered during the third quarter of 2015 are published today by the National Records of Scotland.

The statistics show that 13,083 deaths were registered in the third quarter of the year – 145 (1.1 per cent) more than in the same period of 2014. This was the highest number of third quarter deaths since 2003 although levels remain substantially lower than those seen in the 1980s and 1990s. 

The provisional figures also show that:

• 14,606 births were registered in Scotland in quarter three – 323 (2.2 per cent) fewer than in the same period of 2014. The total number of births for the third quarter fell to a low of around 13,200 in 2001. It then rose to around 15,500 in 2008 before falling more gradually to the current level of around 14,600 in 2015. 
• There were 11,434 marriages in total, 396 more than in the third quarter of 2014 (a rise of 3.6 per cent). Of these, 475 were same-sex marriages. 
• There were 17 civil partnerships (8 male and 9 female), 123 fewer than during the third quarter of 2014. 

Compared with the same period in 2014, the number of deaths from coronary heart disease fell by 3.4 per cent to 1,553, deaths from stroke fell by 5.4 per cent to 934, and there were 3,979 deaths from cancer (an increase of 1.6 per cent).

The full publication, Births, deaths and other vital events - quarterly figures, is available on this website.

National Records of Scotland has made records of Military Service Appeal Tribunal Records available on ScotlandsPeople. The records contain thousands of cases of men who appealed against their compulsory call-up for military service following the introduction of conscription in 1916. The reasons ranged from ill health, personal or family hardship and conscientious objection to claims for exemption because their work was important to the national interest.

 The records added to ScotlandsPeople, the Scottish Government’s official genealogy website, are mainly from the Lothian and Peebles Appeal Tribunal and were kept as a sample, while some additional records of the Ross, Cromarty and Sutherland (Lewis Section) Appeal Tribunal survived by accident. Further details and stories from these archives can be found on the ScotlandsPeople website.

Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Europe and External Affairs, Fiona Hyslop, said:

 “These powerful online records are an important part of our history and demonstrate the challenges thousands of Scottish men and their families faced during the First World War. I encourage people to learn more about this important period and to contribute any information they have to piece together a fuller picture of what life was like for our men.”

Tim Ellis, Chief Executive of National Records of Scotland, said:

“We are privileged to be commemorating the First World War centenary by making available this special series of records. The documents will be invaluable to family historians researching their ancestors and the lives recorded also reveal a poignant picture of life on the home front and beyond.”

For more information about these documents see our Military Service Appeal Tribunals record guide.

Scotland’s population is projected to continue to increase into the future.

Statistics published today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) show the population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.35 million in 2014 to 5.51 million over the next ten years, and then to continue to rise to 5.7 million by 2039 – an increase of seven per cent over the 25 year period.

Commenting on the publication of the ‘National Population Projections for Scotland’, Registrar General and NRS Chief Executive Tim Ellis said:

“The latest population projections indicate that while Scotland’s population is expected to reach record levels for years to come, it is not projected to be quite as high as the previous set of projections suggested.

“Scotland’s population is projected to continue to rise into the future because although Scotland’s birth rate and inward net migration levels have recently fallen, they are still high by historic standards. Also people at older ages are expected to live longer.”

The report provides projections for the period up to 2039. They show what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based largely on past trends, and although they will reflect past policy and economic impacts, they do not take account of future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives.

Main findings

Principal projection

• The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.35 million in 2014 to 5.51 million over the next 10 years, and then to continue to rise to 5.7 million in 2039 – an increase of seven per cent over the 25 year period. 
• Over the next decade, 10 per cent of the projected increase in Scotland’s population can be attributed to natural increase (more births than deaths) while 90 per cent of the increase is due to assuming continuing inward net migration to Scotland (57 per cent from international migration and 32 per cent from cross-border migration with the rest of the UK). 
• Over the next 10 years, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by two per cent from 0.91 to 0.93 million. The number of children is then projected to decrease to 0.92 million by 2039, resulting in an overall increase of only one per cent over the 25 year period from 2014 to 2039. 
• The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 29 per cent in the first 10 years of the projection period, from 0.43 million in 2014 to 0.56 million in 2024. It is then projected to continue rising, reaching 0.8 million in 2039 – an increase of 85 per cent over the 25 year period. 
• Over the next 10 years, the population of working age is projected to increase from 3.38 million to 3.49 million (an increase of three per cent). It is then projected to peak at 3.54 million in 2028. After this, the working age population is projected to decline to 3.42 million in 2039. Overall there is a one per cent projected increase over the 25 year period. 
• The number of people of pensionable age and over is projected to increase by three per cent between 2014 and 2024, from 1.06 million to 1.09 million. It is then projected to reach 1.36 million by 2039 (an increase of around 28 per cent compared with 2014). 
• The population is projected to continue ageing, with the average age rising from 41.9 in 2014 to 45.2 in 2039. 
• The dependency ratio – the ratio of people aged under 16 and of pensionable age and over, to those of working age – is projected to rise from around 58 dependants per 100 working population in 2014 to 67 per 100 in 2039. This rise is mainly due to the increase in the population of state pension age and over. 
• While Scotland’s population is projected to increase by seven per cent over the 25 year period,  England’s population is projected to increase by 17 per cent, Northern Ireland’s population by 10 per cent and Wales’s population by six per cent between 2014 and 2039. 

Variant projections

• Under the majority of the alternative scenarios illustrated by the nine available variant projections, Scotland’s population is projected to increase between 2014 and 2039. Only the low population variant and the variant with natural change only project a decrease in Scotland’s population by two per cent from 2014 to 2039. 
• All the variant projections show Scotland’s population ageing over the next 25 years, with the number of people aged 75+ projected to increase by between 72 per cent and 99 per cent under these variant assumptions.

The full publication ‘National Population Projections for Scotland (2014 based)’ and an Infographic Supplement are available on this website.

Registered deaths in Scotland in winter 2014/15 were at their highest level since winter 1999/2000.

Statistics released today by the National Records of Scotland show that 22,011 deaths were registered from December 2014 to March 2015. This was in contrast to the previous winter (2013/14), when 18,675 deaths were registered (which was the lowest number in all the 64 winters for which such statistics are available).

The 22,011 deaths registered in the four winter months of 2014/15 exceeded both the 17,493 deaths in the preceding four-month period and the 18,402 deaths in the following four-month period.

The seasonal difference (comparing the four winter months with the average of the four-month periods before and after the winter, and rounding the result) was 4,060 for winter 2014/15. This was 2,460 more than the corresponding figure of 1,600 for winter 2013/14 (which was the second lowest value in the 64 winters: the 1,420 for winter 2011/12 was the lowest). It was also the largest seasonal increase since the 5,190 for winter 1999/2000.

However, the last fifteen winters have had seven out of the ten lowest seasonal increases in the 64 winters for which figures are available. National Records of Scotland statistics show that mortality can fluctuate markedly from winter to winter: occasionally one year will have an unusually large figure, like winter 2014/15.

Commenting on ‘Winter Mortality in Scotland - 2014/15’, Tim Ellis, Chief Executive of the National Records of Scotland, said:

"There are always more deaths in the winter in Scotland than in any other season.  Unfortunately, last winter had an unusually high seasonal increase, when compared with the previous fourteen winters.

“Looking at our figures, which go back to 1951/52, the long-term trend has clearly been downward. Despite the latest winter’s unusually high figure, the five-year moving average (which smoothes out much of the year-to-year fluctuation) is at its second lowest ever level.

"There is no single cause of additional deaths in winter. Very few are caused by hypothermia and only a small proportion by influenza. The underlying causes of most of the additional deaths include respiratory and circulatory diseases (such as pneumonia, coronary heart disease and stroke), dementia, and Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative diseases.”

The full publication ‘Winter Mortality in Scotland 2014/15’ is available on this website.

Life expectancy for men and women continues to improve, according to a report published today by the National Records of Scotland.

Based on statistics covering 2012-2014, the report breaks down further the estimates published at Scotland level on 20 August 2015 which showed that life expectancy is now 77.1 years for men and 81.1 years for women in Scotland.

Tim Ellis, the Chief Executive of National Records of Scotland said:

“This report shows that life expectancy continues to vary widely across Scotland.

“Life expectancy for men is highest in East Dunbartonshire and lowest in Glasgow City, while for women it is highest in East Dunbartonshire and lowest in West Dunbartonshire. People living in rural areas, in general, live longer than those in more urban areas.”

A new interactive data visualisation has also been published which allows comparisons of life expectancy at birth between council areas in Scotland. It is available on the Scotland's Census website.

The key points in this report for 2012-2014 are:

At birth

• Life expectancy in Scotland was 77.1 years for males and 81.1 years for females but with considerable variation between areas.
• Male and female life expectancy was highest in East Dunbartonshire Council. Male life expectancy was lowest in Glasgow City while female life expectancy was lowest in West Dunbartonshire. Males in East Dunbartonshire can expect to live for 80.7 years, 7.3 years longer than in Glasgow City (73.4 years). Females in East Dunbartonshire can expect to live for 83.9 years, 5.2 years longer than in West Dunbartonshire (78.7 years).
• The NHS Board area with the highest male life expectancy was Borders (79.3 years), with female life expectancy being highest in Orkney (82.8 years); the NHS Board area with the lowest male life expectancy was Greater Glasgow & Clyde (75.3 years), with female life expectancy also lowest in Greater Glasgow & Clyde at 80.0 years.
• Life expectancy at birth was highest for males in Remote Rural areas (79.5 years), where they can expect to live nearly 3.5 years longer than males in large urban areas, who have a life expectancy at birth of 76.0 years. Female life expectancy at birth was also highest in Remote Rural areas (82.7 years), 2.1 years more than in large urban areas, where it was lowest (80.6 years).

Compared with UK and Europe

• Scottish males and females have the lowest life expectancy at birth in the United Kingdom (UK). Male life expectancy is 2.0 years lower than the UK average and female life expectancy is 1.7 years lower.
• In Scotland, males and females can expect to live shorter lives (by 2.3 years and 2.0 years respectively) than in England, where male and female life expectancy is the highest in the UK.
• Amongst European Union (EU) countries, Sweden’s male life expectancy was among the highest (79.4 years), 2.3 years higher than in Scotland. Female life expectancy was highest in Spain (85.3 years), 4.2 years higher than in Scotland.
• Although male and female life expectancy continues to improve in Scotland, the gap between Scottish and English life expectancy for both males and females has widened since 1980-1982 by 0.3 years for both males and females.

Changes over time

• Male and female life expectancy has continued to rise across Scotland.
• The biggest improvements in male life expectancy since 2002-2004 have been in Inverclyde Council (5.2 years) and Western Isles NHS Board area (4.6 years).
• The biggest improvements in female life expectancy since 2002-2004 have been in East Dunbartonshire Council, increasing by 3.5 years and Highland NHS Board area, increasing by 2.7 years.
• The gap between male and female life expectancy at birth in Scotland has decreased from 6.2 years in 1980-1982 to 4.0 years in 2012-2014. Male life expectancy has been increasing at a faster rate than for females since 2001-2003

At age 65

• Males in Scotland could expect to live for a further 17.4 years at age 65 and females a further 19.7 years.
• East Dunbartonshire Council had the highest male life expectancy at age 65 (19.2 years), 4.0 years higher than in Glasgow City, where it was lowest at 15.2 years. Female life expectancy at age 65 was also highest in East Dunbartonshire (21.5 years) and lowest in Glasgow City (18.1 years), a difference of 3.4 years.
• The NHS Board area with the highest male and female life expectancy at age 65 was Shetland (19.0 years and 21.2 years respectively). It was lowest for males in Greater Glasgow & Clyde (16.4 years) and for females in Lanarkshire (18.8 years). 

The full publication, Life Expectancy for Areas in Scotland 2012-2014, is available on the this website.

National Records of Scotland seeks first views on Scotland’s next census

Planning for Scotland’s Census 2021 starts today with the National Records of Scotland (NRS) asking for views on the topic areas that should be included.

A consultation being launched today on the Scotland's Census website focuses on the broad topics the census will cover. The aim is to encourage discussion and help NRS build a strong case for the inclusion of new topics in the census. 

Discussion around particular questions or responses  will be made through a programme of further consultation, research and testing that will involve the public and service users. 

This is the start of engagement that will take place between now and 2021 as NRS prepares for what will again be Scotland’s largest survey of the population. The plans for this programme are currently being developed and will be published on Scotland’s Census website in due course.

In launching the consultation, Tim Ellis, the Registrar General for Scotland, said:

“We have run our own census in Scotland since 1861, and it has provided us with important insights into who we are, how we work, and how we have lived in Scotland over the last 150 years. Decisions are taken every day using census statistics, helping to plan and provide services the length and breadth of Scotland, and from the cradle to the grave. By law it must be completed by everyone in Scotland. So it is important that what we ask is what the people of Scotland need – and that we only ask what is really needed.

“Although 2021 may seem a long time away, we need to start working towards this now and NRS needs to hear from all users to get their view on the important topics that Scotland’s Census in 2021 should ask about.

“This is the chance to get involved in shaping what we will ask everyone in Scotland in 2021.”

Fiona Hyslop, Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Europe and External Affairs, said:

“Our government has always been clear how much we value high quality, independent evidence such as that delivered by the census. The uniqueness of the census is that it is the only survey to ask everyone in Scotland the same questions at the same time. Nothing else provides the richness and range of information that the census does to allow us to understand the issues and challenges faced on a national and local level.

“I welcome the consultation and encourage as many people as possible to take part and help define the broad topics which people think the census in 2021 should cover.”

The consultation will build on the success of the census in 2011. The 2021 Census will be the 22nd to be taken in Scotland and will be designed and managed to best meet the needs of Scotland’s Census users.

The number of people in Scotland living for more than a century continues to grow.

Figures published today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) estimate that in 2014 there were 910 centenarians living in Scotland.

Tim Ellis, the Chief Executive of National Records of Scotland said:

“The number of people in Scotland aged 100 or more has been steadily rising. Between 2004 and 2014 the numbers rose from 510 to 910, a growth of 78 per cent.

“In 2014 there were 17 male centenarians per hundred female centenarians, an increase from 11 in 2004, reflecting a narrowing of the gap in mortality between men and women for this age group.

“Estimates of the number of people aged 90 to 99 show relatively big increases between 2010 and 2012. This is partly due to births in the years following the First World War being much higher than in the preceding years. The number of births in 1920 was the highest since the introduction of national registration in 1855.”

A century ago living to a hundred was very uncommon, but this changed at the beginning of the 21st century when estimates showed there were over 500 people aged 100 years old and over in Scotland. The number of centenarians has been increasing ever since.

The overwhelming majority of centenarians are women. In 2014, women accounted for 780 of Scotland’s centenarians (86 per cent) while 130 men had reached the milestone. Although the male population aged 90 to 99 increased from 2013 to 2014, almost three quarters of people in their 90s are women (72 per cent).

Since 2004, the number of centenarians relative to the rest of the population has increased. But there are still less than two centenarians for every 10,000 people (1.7 per 10,000).

Within Scotland, South Ayrshire had the highest proportion of centenarians and Clackmannanshire had the lowest. Glasgow City had the highest absolute number of centenarians and Clackmannanshire the lowest.

The full publications Centenarians in Scotland 2004 to 2014 and Sub-national Population Estimates for ages 90 and over are available on this website.

The statistics published today by the Registrar General for Scotland on the Scotland’s Census website present details on the Gaelic language, at national, council area and civil parish level.  

Gaelic language skills

• In 2011, 87,100 people aged 3 and over in Scotland (1.7 per cent of the population) had some Gaelic language skills.
• Of these 87,100 people:
  • 32,400 (37 per cent) had full skills in Gaelic, that is could understand, speak, read and write Gaelic; 
  • 57,600 (66 per cent) could speak Gaelic;
  • 6,100 (7 per cent) were able to read and/or write but not speak Gaelic; and 
  • 23,400 (27 per cent) were able to understand Gaelic but could not speak, read or write it. 
• Highland, Eilean Siar and Glasgow City were the council areas with the largest numbers of people with some Gaelic language ability, with these three council areas containing almost half (49 per cent) of those with some Gaelic language skills nationally. 
• The proportion of people aged 3 and over with some Gaelic language skills was highest in Eilean Siar (61 per cent), Highland (7 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (6 per cent). It was 1.7 per cent in Glasgow City, the same as the national average. 
• At 50 per cent, Eilean Siar had the highest proportion (of all people with some Gaelic language skills) of those that can understand, speak, read and write Gaelic. 
• Between 2001 and 2011 there were decreases in the proportion of people who could speak Gaelic in all age groups for people aged 18 and over. For example, for people aged 65 and over the proportion fell from 1.8 per cent in 2001 to 1.5 per cent in 2011. In contrast, the proportion of people who can speak Gaelic increased slightly in younger age groups: from 0.53 per cent to 0.70 per cent for 3-4 year olds; from 0.91 per cent to 1.13 per cent for 5-11 year olds; and from 1.04 per cent to 1.10 per cent for 12-17 year olds.
• Some 41 per cent of Gaelic-speaking children aged 5 to 11 lived in households where all adults had some Gaelic language skills, 23 per cent lived in households where some (but not all) adults had some Gaelic language skills and 36 per cent lived in households where no adults had any Gaelic language skills.
• Nationally, 25,000 people aged 3 and over (0.49  per cent of the population) reported using Gaelic at home.
• Of people who were Gaelic speakers, 40 per cent reported using Gaelic at home. This proportion was 74 per cent in Eilean Siar, 41 per cent in Highland, 33 per cent in Argyll & Bute and 24 per cent in the other 29 council areas combined. 
• Of children aged 5 to 11 reported as using Gaelic at home, 61 per cent lived in households where all adults had some Gaelic language skills, 27 per cent lived in households where some (but not all) adults had some Gaelic language skills and 12 per cent lived in households where no adults had any Gaelic language skills. 

Further information

All the data associated with this report can be accessed on the Scotland’s Census website.

A Gaelic version of this report is being prepared and will be published on the Scotland’s Census website as soon as possible. 

A detailed commentary on the background tables to this report, including at council area and civil parish band levels, will be published later in the autumn, in Part 2 of this report and will be available in English and Gaelic.

A Gaelic translation of this news release is available on this website.

An English version of this new release is available on this website.